US Presidential Election Swing States Odds, Predictions & Tips

In this post, you can find the latest US Presidential Election swing states odds ahead of what is shaping up to be one of the tightest election races in United States history.

What is a Swing State?

A swing state (also known as a battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes.

The seven “Swing States” which are set to decide the 2024 US Presidential Election have been dubbed as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Below we go through the odds for each state, recent election results and who could win these all-important swing states in this election.

*All polling data referenced is courtesy of FiveThirtyEight .

US Election Swing States Odds, Predictions & Tips

Arizona

Arizona Election Odds

Recent Arizona Presidential Election Results

2020 – Joe Biden (The Democratic Party) +0.3%

2016 – Donald Trump (The Republican Party) +3.6%

2012 – Mitt Romney (The Republican Party) +9.1%

Arizona Presidential Election Prediction & Tip

An interesting jurisdiction, one which has tended to favour the Republican Party, though at least in part due to its rising Hispanic population, led to Joe Biden becoming the first Democrat to win it since Harry Truman in 1948.

John McCain (who has been routinely criticised by Donald Trump) is a previous Republican candidate to win Arizona but now his widow campaigns actively for the Democrats and is seen as key to attracting the independent vote.

The most recent polls per FiveThirtyEight have Trump leading the way here with 48.9% of the vote, +2.1% ahead of Harris’ 46.8%. While Trump is the more likely winner, the tight nature of the poll numbers and the fact that this state voted Democrat in 2020 suggests that the value is on Harris here at odds of 4/1.

Tip: Democrats to win Arizona @ 4/1

Georgia

Georgia Election Odds

Recent Georgia Presidential Election Results

2020 – Joe Biden (The Democratic Party) +0.2%

2016 – Donald Trump (The Republican Party) +5.1%

2012 – Mitt Romney (The Republican Party) +7.8%

Georgia Presidential Election Prediction & Tip

Georgia was a huge gain for Biden in 2020 winning the state for the Democrats for the first time since 1992 with Bill Clinton albeit by a nominal margin, this is a state that Harris will be targeting to defeat Trump in again. 1/3 of voters are Black in this area and the Democratic Party have won the last three Senate elections.

Current polling has Trump at 48.2% and Harris at 47.5% which puts Trump 0.8% ahead of his Democrat rival. The Republican candidate has held this narrow advantage for the last two months.

This is traditionally a Republican area and though Trump lost this state in 2020, he won it in 2016 and I think he could win it again this time around.

Tip: Republicans to win Georgia @ 2/5

Michigan

Michigan Presidential Election Odds

Recent Michigan Presidential Election Results

2020 – Joe Biden (The Democratic Party) +2.8%

2016 – Donald Trump (The Republican Party) +0.2%

2012 – Barack Obama (The Democratic Party) +9.5%

Michigan Presidential Election Prediction & Tip

Michigan is traditionally a Democratic area with Trump’s victory in 2016 being the only time a Republican candidate won the jurisdiction since the 1980s. Interestingly though his 47.5% total which usually would not be enough, Trump benefited from third-party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson taking close to 5% of the vote.

The third-party candidates look to be a huge factor this time around again with Robert Kennedy JR (who now supports Trump) failing in the courts to get himself removed from the ballot. That could hurt Trump though other candidates Stein and Cornel West will take more votes away from Harris.

Per recent polling, Harris holds a lead of 1% although that lead was previously consistently north of 2% until late September when Trump started to gain ground in the polls. This is a must-win for the Democrats but recent polling and history suggest that the value here is on a Republican victory in Michigan.

Tip: Republicans to win Michigan @ 7/4

Nevada

Nevada Presidential Election Odds

Recent Nevada Presidential Election Odds

2020 – Joe Biden (The Democratic Party) +2.4%

2016 – Hilary Clinton (The Democratic Party) +2.4%

2012 – Barack Obama (The Democratic Party) +6.7%

Nevada Presidential Election Prediction & Tip

Nevada is usually an area which is dominated by the Democratic Party in Presidential Elections with George W Bush in 2004 the only candidate to win for the Republicans since 1980.

Current polling has Harris at 47.4% and Trump at 47.7%. Those figures suggest that this one will come down to the narrowest of margins. Recent election history favours the Democrats however, that is especially relevant when you consider that Trump has lost this state each time he has run, both times by a margin of 2.4%.

Odds of Evens on a Democrat victory in Nevada appear value here.

Tip: Democrats to win Nevada @ Evens

North Carolina

North Carolina Presidential Election Odds

2020 – Donald Trump (The Republican Party) +1.3%

2016 – Donald Trump (The Republican Party) +3.7%

2012 – Mitt Romney (The Republican Party) +2%

North Carolina Presidential Election Prediction & Tip

North Carolina, despite being an area where the Republican Party tends to dominate, is seen as a potential gain for the Democrats with Harris campaigning hard in the area and performing well in some polls.

Barack Obama in 2008 is the only Democrat to have won here since the 1970s and he did so by the slimmest of 0.3% margins. The governor in the area Ray Cooper is a close friend of Harris and won a second term on the same day Trump did in 2020.

In recent times Trump has regained a lead in the polls with him currently at 48.3% to Harris at 47.4%. It would be devastating to Republican chances if they didn’t win here and although polling is relatively tight, election history and Trump's 2016 and 2020 wins here suggest he should have enough to take this one.

Tip: Republicans to win North Carolina @ 4/9

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania Presidential Election Odds

Recent Pennsylvania Presidential Election Results

2020 – Joe Biden (The Democratic Party) +1.2%

2016 – Donald Trump (The Republican Party) +0.6%

2012 – Barack Obama (The Democratic Party) +5.4%

Pennsylvania Presidential Election Prediction & Tip

This is seen as the most important state of them all for both parties with the winner in poll position to assume the presidency. The loser, on the other hand, will have a very difficult path to securing the election.

Trump is the only Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s, and only did so in 2016 by a tiny 0.7% margin winning a smaller share of the vote than George W Bush did in defeat in 2004 (48.42%).

Current polling has Harris at 47.9%, 0.2% ahead of Trump at 47.7%. This is such a tight race and election history would favour the Democrat candidate. However, Trump did manage to turn Pennsylvania red in 2016 on his way to the White House which suggests a Republican win here is a very real possibility. With that said, Harris and the Democratic Party are the likely winners here this time around for me, especially when you consider the general election history.

Tip: Democrats to win Pennsylvania @ Evens

Wisconsin

Wisconsin Presidential Election Odds

Recent Wisconsin Presidential Election Results

2020 – Joe Biden (The Democratic Party) +0.6%

2016 – Donald Trump (The Republican Party) +0.8%

2012 – Barack Obama (The Democratic Party) +7%

Wisconsin Presidential Election Prediction & Tip

A state which was a pillar of Trump’s “shock” victory in 2016 becoming the first Republican to win since Ronald Reagan. in 1984. Furthermore, while Trump lost in 2020 he substantially outperformed the polls which means the Harris team should tread with caution and not follow Clinton’s lead in 2016 who failed to visit the state during the home stretch in the campaigning.

Current polling has Harris at 48.3% and Trump at 47.3% which given recent history is something to take with a pinch of salt. The odds have Kamala in poll position and justifiably so given the averages and the history of the state. Expect this to be one of the nailed-on Democrat state successes.

Tip: Democrats to win Wisconsin @ 8/11

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