In this post, we bring you Super Bowl tips as we take a look at the props and best bets for this year’s big game between the Chiefs and 49ers.
Super Bowl Tips
Slow Start?
The 49ers have gotten off to slow starts in their two playoff games to get to this point. They only scored 7 points in their first playoff game against the Packers to lead 7-6. Only a 1-point lead for a team they were favoured to beat by 10 points prior to the game.
They only scored 7 points again in the 1st half of the NFC Championship game against the Lions. That time they found themselves in a 17-point hole at halftime, as the Lions led 24-7, once again the 49ers were big favourites for that game with a pre-match handicap of -7 points. The last time the 49ers played in the Super Bowl came against the Chiefs when they scored just 10 points in the 1st half.
Of course, in both games, San Francisco were able to pull themselves through after slow starts thanks to great offensive performances in the 2nd halves of those games. However, this game is a lot more even going by the betting odds so from a San Francisco perspective you’d worry that if they get off to a slow start that it might be insurmountable.
So how have the Chiefs played in the opening half of their playoff games to get here? Pretty well is the short answer. Kansas City scored 16 points, 13 points, and 17 points in their opening halves.
However, we have seen the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs play in 3 Super Bowls so far which is a decent sample size. They have struggled to get off to a fast start in all of those previous Super Bowls. Their previous first-half outputs are; 10 points against the 49ers in 2020, 6 points against the Bucs in 2021, and 14 points against the Eagles last year.
Another notable stat here in relation to 1st half-scoring is that both the 49ers (9th) and the Chiefs (10th) have top 10 scoring defences in the 1st half of games this season.
So the recent playoff trends for the 49ers suggest that they will get off to a slow start in this Super Bowl and the historical trends for the Chiefs also suggest that they will get off to a slow start offensively in this game.
Tip: 1st Half Total Points Under 23.5 @ 20/23
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Deebo Samuel to win Super Bowl MVP
Samuel is a wide receiver but 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan loves to get Deebo involved in the running game. When these teams played against each other in the Super Bowl in 2020, Deebo had 3 carries for 53 yards. That’s 17+ yards per carry. In other words, the 49ers were creating explosive plays off of Samuel's carries in that game but Samuel’s last carry of the game came early in the 2nd half.
San Francisco Head Coach Kyle Shanahan likely regrets not giving Samuel the ball more in the 2nd half of that game so I’d look for him to keep handing Samuel the ball if he has early success in this Super Bowl.
The talented wide receiver also had 3 rushes in the NFC Championship against the Lions although on that occasion he could only manage 7 yards from those attempts.
With 2 weeks to prepare for this game, I would expect Shanahan to have a package of plays to get Deebo the ball plenty. Also, the general nature of the 49ers passing attack is for a lot of short passes to their playmakers. Deebo is one of the best in the league at making players miss in open space and turning short throws into big gains.
It’s worth noting that the Super Bowl MVP has only come from the losing team once and that was over 50 years ago. In other words, if you’re going to back Samuel to win Super Bowl MVP then the 49ers will almost certainly need to win the game for you to cash that bet.
There has been a recent trend of WRs winning the Super Bowl MVP too with 2 of the last 5 Super Bowl MVPs playing the position. Cooper Kupp won the award in 2022 with 8 receptions for 92 yards and 2 TDs while Julian Edelman won it in 2019 with 10 receptions for 141 yards and 0 TDs.
At shorter odds, a related bet that I like is Deebo Samuel to have over 2.5 rushing attempts (3 or more) is 8/13. Barring injury I would be very surprised if Samuel doesn’t have 3+ rush attempts in this game.
At longer odds, Deebo Samuel to have the longest rush of the game at 10/1 represents decent value given his explosiveness.
Tip: Deebo Samuel To Win Super Bowl MVP @ 20/1
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Isiah Pacheco to Have the Most Rushing Yards
Isiah Pacheco has been a revelation this year for the Kansas City Chiefs. The talented running back has been featured prominently by Kansas City this season as they have opted for a more balanced attack between passing and running as opposed to previous years when this offence was very pass-heavy.
This has been especially true in this year’s playoffs where Pacheco is averaging 21 rush attempts per game. From those carries he has had solid production with 84.6 yards per game in these playoffs.
The 49ers have been terrible at defending the run this postseason with 158 rushing yards per game and an average of 5.6 yards per rush attempt allowed. This poor run defence hasn’t just been an issue that has popped up recently though as San Francisco ranked 21st out of 32 teams in yards allowed per rush attempt this season.
The other starting running back in this game is Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers starter is averaging 18.5 rushing attempts per game in the playoffs, that number is considerably less than Pacheco although it’s worth bearing in mind that the 49ers were playing from behind for most of the NFC Championship game which would have made them run the ball less in that game.
The Chiefs have been stout against the run in this postseason with opposing running backs struggling to rack up yards against this defence.
Kansas City has allowed:
3.4 yards per rush attempt to running backs against the Ravens
4.1 yards per rush attempt to running backs against the Bills
3.4 yards per rush attempt to running backs against the Dolphins
Given Pacheco’s heavy workload, the 49ers suspect run defence and the Chiefs stout run defence I like the value in Isiah Pacheco having the most rushing yards in this game at odds of 7/4.
Given the amount of carries Pacheco is getting in recent games, it also looks like decent value for him to have the longest rush in the game @ 5/2. As mentioned earlier, Deebo Samuel is also a good longshot bet in that market at 10/1.
Tip: Isiah Pacheco to have the most rushing yards @ 7/4
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Winning Coach Gatorade Shower Colour
It is a longstanding tradition in the NFL that the Super Bowl winning Head Coach gets Gatorade (a sports drink that players drink on the sideline) poured on them.
The Chiefs have won 2 Super Bowls in recent years so we have some historical data to go off for the colour of the Gatorade shower when they won those Super Bowls. In 2020 against the 49ers the Gatorade used for the Gatorade shower was orange. Last year against the Eagles the colour was purple.
Could Kansas City go with orange again as a good omen and out of superstition having beat the 49ers in a Super Bowl recently with that colour Gatorade? Professional athletes tend to be quite superstitious so it could be worth a punt at odds of 9/4 for orange Gatorade to be poured over the winning Head Coach.
We don’t have any data for the 49ers on this matter as the last time they won the Super Bowl was in 1995.
It’s also worth noting that orange Gatorade has been the most popular colour for Gatorade showers since 2001. Blue has been very popular recently with 3 of the last 5 Super Bowl champions pouring a blue Gatorade shower over their Head Coach.
Red has not been the Super Bowl Gatorade shower colour since 2001. My understanding is that teams don’t use red Gatorade as trainers and doctors need to be able to tell if a player is spitting up blood or Gatorade and if they use red Gatorade it might make this confusing. For that reason, I would probably scratch the red/pink option at 9/2 off of your list of bets to consider here.
Here is a list of the most common Gatorade shower colours since 2001:
Orange - 5
Blue - 4
Clear - 4
Purple - 3
Yellow - 3
Tip: Blue to be the winning coach Gatorade shower colour @ 4/1
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