In this post, we take a look at the latest Sinn Féin Irish Election Odds plus the latest polling, and election history along with betting tips ahead of this November’s Irish General Election.
Sinn Féin was first founded in 1905 by Arthur Griffith. The party split before the Irish Civil War and again in its aftermath giving rise to Fianna Fáil, and Cumann na nGaedheal (which became Fine Gael). A further split at the start of the Troubles led to the modern Sinn Féin party, with the other faction eventually becoming the Workers' Party in 1970.
Mary Lou McDonald, who is a Dublin Central TD, has been the leader of the party since the 10th of February 2018 following the resignation of Gerry Adams as party leader.
Irish General Election Most Seats Odds
Party | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Fine Gael | 5/6 | 54.5% |
Fianna Fail | 5/4 | 44.4% |
Sinn Féin | 13/2 | 13.3% |
Independent Ireland | 100/1 | 1% |
Aontu | 200/1 | 0.5% |
Social Democrats | 200/1 | 0.5% |
Bar | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
Fine Gael are the favourites to win the most seats at the next Irish General Election with odds of 5/6.
Fianna Fail are just behind at 5/4 which makes them the second favourites to secure the most seats in this election.
Next in the betting is Sinn Féin at odds of 13/2 to be the best-represented party in Dáil Eireann after this election.
Further out in the betting are Independent Ireland (100/1), Aontú (200/1) and the Social Democrats (200/1).
Departing TDs
Sinn Féin will see the departure of two prominent TDs from the last Irish General Election in 2020.
The first TD not seeking re-election is Imelda Munster who won her seat in the Louth constituency during the 2016 general election, receiving 8,829 first preference votes (13.1%) and was re-elected at the 2020 general election receiving 17,203 first preference votes (24.34%).
The second Sinn Féin TD not seeking re-election is Kathleen Funchion who was first elected to the Dáil at the 2016 general election and was re-elected in the 2020 election. However, in 2024, she was elected to the European Parliament receiving 7.35% of the first preference votes, eventually being elected on the 20th count to take the fifth seat in Carlow-Kilkenny.
Latest Polling
Per the latest Sunday Business/Red-C poll, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are set to fight it out for an overall majority in government with Micheál Martin making gains on Simon Harris.
Over half of voters reportedly see Sinn Féin as unfit for government (per Red C polling in October) with the gap between the party and Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil having widened in recent months.
POLL: Business Post/Red C (Nov 7th)
Fine Gael 22% (+0%)
Fianna Fáil 21% (+0%)
Sinn Féin 18% (+1%)
Social Democrats 6% (+1%)
Aontú 5% (+2%)
Green Party 4% (+1%)
Labour 3% (-1%)
PBP-Solidarity 3% (-1%)
Independents/others 19%
Previous Irish Election Results
The modern-day Sinn Féin party (since 1970) has occupied a unique position in the Irish political space as the only party which contests seats in both Westminster and Dáil Éireann.
Sinn Féin were a small party when it came to their representation in elected government pre-1992 with no members elected to the Dáil until Gerry Adams took a seat in the 1997 general election.
However, in the following 2002 and 2007 elections they slowly began to build consistent Dáil representation with 5 and 4 TDs elected respectively in both elections. They saw further growth in 2011 and 2016 when the party elected 14 and then 23 TDs
The most recent Irish General Election took place on February 8th, 2020. Sinn Féin won 37 seats following a 10.7% swing in their vote and became the joint largest party in Dáil Éireann when Fianna Fail TD Seán Ó Fearghaíl was elected as Ceann Comhairle.
Taoiseach After Next General Election Odds
Party | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Simon Harris | 10/11 | 52.4% |
Micheal Martin | 11/10 | 47.6% |
Mary Lou McDonald | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Fine Gael leader Simon Harris is currently seen as the most likely candidate to be Taoiseach for the Government of the 34th Dáil with odds of 10/11.
Micheál Martin is seen as the next most likely candidate to be Taoiseach for the Government of the 34th Dáil with odds of 11/10 that he will get the honour again after holding the position from the 27th June 2020 to the 17th of December 2022. Those odds were as high as 15/8 a couple of weeks ago but he and Fianna Fáil have since gained ground on Fine Gael.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is next in the betting with 7/1 odds of becoming both the first-ever Sinn Féin and female taoiseach.
Odds On Sinn Féin Governments After Next Election
Government | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Sinn Féin/ Labour/ Soc Dems / PBP / Greens/ Independents | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Sinn Féin/ Labour/ Soc Dems/ PBP/ Independents | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Sinn Féin/ Fianna Fáil | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Sinn Féin/ Fianna Fáil/ Independents | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Sinn Féin/ Labour/ Soc Dems/ Green/ Independents | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Sinn Féin/ Fianna Fáil/ Labour | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Sinn Féin/ Fianna Fáil/ Labour/ Soc Dems | 50/1 | 2% |
Sinn Féin/ Fine Gael | 50/1 | 2% |
Sinn Féin/ Soc Dems/ Greens | 50/1 | 2% |
Sinn Féin/ Fine Gael/ Greens | 80/1 | 1.2% |
Sinn Féin Majority | 100/1 | 1% |
Sinn Féin’s path to government is complicated, to say the least, based on recent opinion polls. The most likely outcome, at 12/1, which sees them in government is a coalition with other left-leaning parties; Labour, the Social Democrats, People Before Profit, and the Green Party along with independent TDs.
The next most likely government (14/1) that includes Sinn Féin is a coalition with Labour, the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and independent TDs.
A Sinn Féin/ Fianna Fáil coalition (16/1) is also not being ruled out by oddsmakers in what would be a historically significant outcome for Irish politics.
Other notable Sinn Féin governments include an unlikely coalition with Fine Gael at 50/1, an even less likely coalition with both Fine Gael and the Green Party (80/1), and an almost unrealistic Sinn Féin majority which is 100/1.
Sinn Féin Election Prediction
The Sinn Féin “surge” in the last Irish General Election was seen by many as a systematic turning of the tune for the future of Irish Politics.
However, their performance as the main opposition party has come under considerable criticism and recent opinion polling suggests they will do well to come close to their 2020 performance.
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