In this post, we take a look at the latest Fine Gael Irish Election Odds plus the latest polling, election history along with betting tips ahead of this November's Irish General Election.
Fine Gael was founded in September 1933 following the amalgamation of Cumann na nGaedheal (“Party of the Irish”)—the party of William Cosgrave, first president of the Irish Free State—and two smaller parties, the Centre Party (formerly the Farmers’ Party) and the National Guard (formerly the Army Comrades Association),
Simon Harris, who is a Wicklow TD has been a leader of the party since the 9th of April 2024 at 37 becoming the youngest holder of the office in the state's history.
Irish General Election Most Seats Odds
Party | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Fine Gael | 10/11 | 52.4% |
Fianna Fail | 6/5 | 45.5% |
Sinn Fein | 11/2 | 15.4% |
Independent Ireland | 100/1 | 1% |
Labour | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
Bar | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
Fine Gael are the current favourites to win the most seats at the next Irish General Election with odds of 10/11.
Fianna Fail are seen as the second most likely party with odds of 6/5 to win the most seats.
Sinn Fein, who had a surge at the last general election are now 11/2. New party Independent Ireland are expected to be the next most likely with odds of 100/1
Departing TD’s
Fine Gael are the party which will see the biggest experience drain ahead of the next Irish General Election with 16 TDs of the 33rd Dáil retiring from elected office and one TD resigning due to sickness (Joe Carey).
Long Serving TD’s Richard Bruton in Dublin Bay North who was first elected in 1982 and Charles Flanagan in Laois-Offaly who was first elected in 1987 the former is the longest-serving departing TD in the Dáil.
Two other departing high-profile TDs are former leader and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in the Dublin West constituency who was first elected to the Dáil in 2007 as well as former Deputy Leader Simon Coveney who served as a TD for Cork South Central since 1998.
The other departing TDs are Michael Creed (Cork North West), Michael Ring (Mayo), David Stanton (Cork East), Fergus O’Dowd (Louth), Paul Kehoe (Wexford), Damien English (Meath West), Joe McHugh (Donegal), Brendan Griffin (Kerry), John Paul Phelan (Carlow-Kilkenny), Ciaran Cannon (Galway East), Heather Humphreys (Cavan-Monaghan) and Josepha Madigan (Dublin Rathdown).
Latest Polling
Per the latest Sunday Business/Red-C poll, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are set to fight it out for an overall majority in government with Micheál Martin making recent gains on Simon Haris.
Over half of voters reportedly see Sinn Féin as unfit for government (per Red C polling in October) with the gap between the party and Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil having widened in recent months.
POLL: Business Post/Red C (Nov 7th)
Fine Gael 22% (+0%)
Fianna Fáil 21% (+0%)
Sinn Féin 18% (+1%)
Social Democrats 6% (+1%)
Aontú 5% (+2%)
Green Party 4% (+1%)
Labour 3% (-1%)
PBP-Solidarity 3% (-1%)
Independents/others 19%
Previous Election Results
Fine Gael electorally have generally held the position as the main opposition party since the party was eventually formed and first took their seats in Dáil Éireann in 1937. They have been in opposition for 15/24 respective governments.
However, since 1992, the party has undergone its’ most successful electoral period being the lead party in government or as part of the leading coalition of parties in 4/8 governments and have been in 3/3 since 2011.
The last Irish General Election took place on February 8th, 2020. This election saw Fine Gael see the biggest downward swing in results compared to their last election where they were the largest elected party. The party won 35 seats which was a fall from their total of 50 in 2016 making them the third largest party behind Fianna Fail (38) and Sinn Fein (37).
Taoiseach After Next General Election Odds
Party | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Simon Harris | Evens | 50% |
Michael Martin | 6/5 | 45.5% |
Mary Lou McDonald | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Jack Chambers | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Pearse Doherty | 80/1 | 1.2% |
Fine Gael leader Simon Harris is currently seen as the most likely candidate to be Taoiseach for the Government of the 34th Dáil with odds of Evens. While Harris is still the most likely leader of the country after this election, his odds have drifted out from what was a commanding 4/7 in recent weeks.
Micheál Martin is seen as the next most likely candidate to be Taoiseach for the Government of the 34th Dáil with odds of 6/5 that he will get the honour again after holding the position from the 27th June 2020 to the 17th December 2022. Those odds were as high as 15/8 a couple of weeks ago but he and Fianna Fáil have since gained ground on Fine Gael.
Mary Lou McDonald is seen as having a 6/1 chance of becoming both the first-ever Sinn Féin and female Taoiseach.
An interesting bet is Fianna Fáil’s Jack Chambers at odds of 16/1 especially if his party leader elects to run for President of Ireland and/or loses his seat.
Odds On Fine Gael Governments After Next Election
Government | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil/ Independents | 6/4 | 40% |
Fianna Fail/ Fine Gael/ Labour | 7/4 | 36.4% |
Fianna Fáil/ Fine Gael/ Green Party/ Independents | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Fianna Fáil/ Fine Gael/ Social Democrats | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Fine Gael Minority | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Fianna Fáil/ Fine Gael/ Labour/ Independents | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Fianna Fáil/ Fine Gael/ Green Party | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Fine Gael Majority | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Fine Gael/ Labour/ Social Democrats | 33/1 | 2.9% |
Sinn Féin/ Fine Gael | 50/1 | 2% |
Sinn Féin/ Fine Gael/ Green Party | 80/1 | 1.2% |
If Fine Gael are to be part of the government after the next election then it is most likely that they form that government with Fianna Fáil. The two parties are of course very familiar with this situation, and indeed the people of Ireland, as they have formed a coalition government since 2020 along with the Green Party.
The end of ‘Civil War politics’ was declared after that 2020 government coalition and this holds true with the two likely to enter another agreement to govern if the latest polling figures are to be believed.
A Fine Gael minority government isn’t completely out of the question at odds of 14/1 per the latest politics odds at BoyleSports. A majority government for the party led by Simon Harris is also achievable according to our oddsmakers with odds of 20/1 on this being the government after the next election.
Coalitions with left-leaning parties are seen as a less likely avenue to government for Fine Gael with a Sinn Féin/ Fine Gael coalition rated as a 50/1 chance, 33/1 for Fine Gael, Labour/ Social Democrats and 80/1 on Sinn Féin/ Fine Gael/ Green Party coalitions.
Fine Gael Election Prediction & Best Bet
Prediction: Fine Gael to win the most seats in Irish General Election @ 10/11
Ahead of the next Irish General Election, Fine Gael are a very difficult party to predict. Fianna Fáil may have closed the gap in recent polls but they still seem to be in the driving seat for another electoral win.
The party lost 15 seats in the 2016 election and with a further 14 TDs no longer seeking election this time around there seems to be a fresher feel around their candidate list for the next Irish General Election.
Harris seems to be polling well and cutting a warmer and an approachable figure than his predecessor Leo Varadkar which I think they will see the benefit from.
Best Bet: Taoiseach After Next Irish General Election Simon Harris @ Evens
Bet on Politics Odds at BoyleSports
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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