The race to be the next UK Prime Minister has rarely looked so one-sided. Andy Burnham is a remarkable 1/66 favourite to succeed Sir Keir Starmer , around a 98.5% chance, after winning the Makerfield by-election and securing the Commons seat he needs to mount a leadership challenge.
Crucially, this is a market shaped by the Labour succession, not a general election. A new prime minister can be installed without the country going to the polls, which is why contenders who would need an election to reach Downing Street, such as Reform's Nigel Farage , sit well down the list despite leading the national polls.
Here is how the next Prime Minister market currently stands.
Prime Minister Odds
Next UK Prime Minister Odds
Contender | Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
Andy Burnham | 1/66 | 98.5% |
Ed Miliband | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Alistair Carns | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Angela Rayner | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Wes Streeting | 25/1 | 3.8% |
John Healey | 33/1 | 2.9% |
Nigel Farage | 33/1 | 2.9% |
Rupert Lowe | 50/1 | 2.0% |
Yvette Cooper | 50/1 | 2.0% |
Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.
Prime Minister Favourites
Next UK Prime Minister Favourites
Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham – 1/66 Favourite
Andy Burnham is the overwhelming 1/66 favourite, with the market giving him a 98.5% chance of being the next person through the door of Number 10.
His victory in Makerfield was the moment the market effectively settled. The Greater Manchester mayor saw off Reform UK by more than 9,000 votes and, in doing so, secured the parliamentary seat that the rules demand of any leadership contender. Having been blocked once by the party machine, Burnham has now engineered his own route back to Westminster at precisely the moment Starmer's authority has drained away.
The polling backs the price. Ipsos has repeatedly found Burnham to be the public's preferred replacement for Starmer , with voters viewing him as more likeable and more in touch with ordinary people than the prime minister, and clearer about what he stands for. Among Labour MPs he is the runaway frontrunner. The one caveat the market acknowledges is that he still has work to do to convince the country he is ready for the job in a crisis, but at 1/66 those doubts are barely registering.
Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband – 20/1
Ed Miliband is the next name in the betting at 20/1, an implied chance of around 4.8%, and is best understood as the continuity, safe-pair-of-hands option.
The Energy Secretary has been here before, having led Labour into the 2015 general election only to lose out to David Cameron's Conservatives.
A return to frontline leadership would be one of the more unlikely comebacks in modern politics, but he retains a loyal following on the party's soft left and would be a recognisable, experienced figure.
Alistair Carns
Alistair Carns – 25/1
Alistair Carns is the standout dark horse at 25/1, an implied chance of around 3.8%, and arguably the most intriguing name on the board.
A decorated former Royal Marines colonel with a Distinguished Service Order to his name, Carns only entered Parliament in 2024 as MP for Birmingham Selly Oak before a rapid rise to Minister for the Armed Forces. He resigned that post in June 2026, the leadership crisis deepening around him, with a pointed broadside at the government's defence spending plans.
Raised in Aberdeen by a single mother and educated at a comprehensive, his back story and military record make him a compelling outsider pitch for a party searching for credibility on security and a fresh face untainted by the current turmoil.
Angela Rayner
Angela Rayner – 25/1
Angela Rayner is also a 25/1 chance, around 3.8% in the market, and is back in leadership contention after a turbulent spell.
The former Deputy Prime Minister has returned to the conversation having been cleared over questions about her tax affairs, and her authentic working-class appeal is exactly the quality Labour strategists believe is needed to win back the Red Wall voters drifting to Reform . She retains a strong base in the party's grassroots and trade union movement.
The question marks are over whether she would stand against Burnham , a fellow northern figure with an overlapping appeal, or instead throw her weight behind him.
Wes Streeting
Wes Streeting – 25/1
Wes Streeting completes the trio of 25/1 shots, an implied chance of around 3.8%, having drifted significantly from his earlier position as one of the leading alternatives to Starmer .
The former Health Secretary resigned from cabinet, declaring he had lost confidence in the prime minister, a move widely seen as firing the starting gun on the leadership race. Yet his odds have lengthened rather than shortened, the market's verdict being that he may simply lack the numbers among MPs to win a head-to-head against Burnham .
His strengths remain his media fluency, his reform-minded image and his appeal to the party's centre, and he is firmly established as a contender for the future. For this contest, though, he looks to be running second best at best.
Outside Contenders
Outside Contenders
Two senior Labour figures head the outsiders. John Healey , at 33/1, resigned as Defence Secretary in June over a row on military spending, and his exit was one of the departures that brought the crisis to a head. A long-serving and well-regarded operator, he would be a steadying, experienced option should the contest broaden out. Yvette Cooper , at 50/1, is the current Foreign Secretary and a former Home Secretary who stood for the leadership once before, back in 2015. She sits firmly in the establishment, continuity bracket rather than among the genuine frontrunners.
The other two names on the board can only reach Number 10 the hard way. Nigel Farage (33/1) leads the national polls with Reform UK , but he cannot become prime minister through a Labour leadership change and would need a general election to get there. The same applies to Rupert Lowe (50/1), whose Restore Britain party launched in 2026 and remains a small operation in Parliament. Though both are unlikely a shift towards an early election would see them shorten quickly.
Bet on Politics Odds at BOYLE Sports
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
Remember, Always Gamble Responsibly.
Bill is as passionate about Irish football as they come, with an agonising longing to see his country grace a World Cup stage. A League of Ireland devotee and lifelong Man United fan, he knows better than most what sporting heartbreak feels like, and brings that perspective to the BOYLE Sports Blog. With roots in greyhound racing and a curiosity spanning politics, snooker, WWE and beyond, there is rarely a sporting conversation he cannot add to.
