For the first time in this parliament, Labour have reclaimed favouritism in the most seats market, nudging ahead of Reform UK as Westminster absorbs the fallout from Andy Burnham's by-election win and the leadership crisis now engulfing Sir Keir Starmer . It is a striking turn in a market that had Reform odds-on as recently as the spring.

The shift is all the more notable because the headline polls still tell a different story. Reform UK continue to lead the national voting intention by a clear margin, yet the bookmakers now make Labour the marginal favourite to win the most seats whenever the country next goes to the polls. The market is pricing in incumbency, the brutal arithmetic of first past the post, and the prospect of a Labour reset under a new leader, rather than simply following the topline numbers.

Here is how the most seats market currently stands, with the next general election expected by 2029.

Most Seats Odds

Next UK General Election – Most Seats Odds

Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.

Most Seats Favourites

Most Seats Favourites

Labour

Labour – 6/4

Labour are now the 6/4 favourites to win the most seats at the next general election, with an implied chance of around 40%, having been pushed out to second in this market for much of the year.

The catalyst for the move is Andy Burnham's emphatic victory in the Makerfield by-election, where the Greater Manchester mayor saw off Reform UK by more than 9,000 votes in exactly the sort of working-class northern seat the bookmakers had begun to write off as Reform territory. It was a pointed reminder that, with the right candidate and a motivated ground campaign, Labour can still win the head-to-head battles that decide a first-past-the-post election.

The by-election also hands Burnham the Commons seat he needs to mount a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer , with former health secretary Wes Streeting also waiting in the wings and more than a hundred Labour MPs already on record wanting a change at the top. Counterintuitive as it sounds, the market reads a potential leadership reset as a positive: a fresh face could revive Labour's fortunes well before polling day, and a sitting government has years to claw back ground.

Crucially, Labour's vote is far more efficiently spread than Reform's . Even trailing in the national share, the party's support is concentrated in the kind of seats that return MPs, which is why several seat projections still have Labour finishing first or a close second on seats despite the polling gap. At 6/4, the market is betting that efficiency, incumbency and time win out.

Labour

Reform

Reform UK – 13/8

Reform UK have drifted to 13/8 in the most seats market, a roughly 38% chance, slipping just behind Labour after spending much of the year as clear favourites.

On the raw numbers, the drift looks harsh. Nigel Farage's party continues to top the national polls, regularly posting figures in the mid to high twenties and leading both Labour and the Conservatives comfortably. Successive MRP megapolls have suggested Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament if an election were held today, in some models pushing close to the threshold for an outright majority.

But the Makerfield result exposed the gap between polling and delivery. Reform's candidate was damaged by unearthed social media posts during the campaign, and Farage himself admitted his party had been outflanked by Burnham's anti-Starmer message. With a target of fielding thousands of vetted candidates by the next election, the challenge of converting a national poll lead into hundreds of individual constituency wins, under a system that punished the party with just a handful of seats in 2024, remains Reform's biggest hurdle. At 13/8 they remain a serious contender, and any sign that the poll lead is hardening into seats would see them shorten again quickly.

Reform

Conservative

Conservative – 9/2

The Conservatives are a 9/2 chance, an implied probability of around 18%, as the party continues its slow attempt to rebuild from the wreckage of 2024.

Under Kemi Badenoch , the Tories have struggled to recover momentum, frequently running third or even fourth in national polling and losing ground on the right flank to Reform and on the centre ground to the Liberal Democrats . The defection of high-profile figures to Farage's party has only deepened the sense of a movement under pressure.

The case for the 9/2 is that the Conservatives retain a deep activist base, a national organisation and a history of recovering from grim mid-term positions. If the right of British politics consolidates, or if Reform's momentum stalls, the Tories are the obvious beneficiaries. But as things stand, the market sees them as a clear third in the race for most seats.

Conservative

Restore Britain

Restore Britain – 8/1

Restore Britain , the party built around Rupert Lowe , are an 8/1 shot, an implied chance of around 11%, and their presence this high in the market underlines how fragmented the right of British politics has become.

The party offered a tangible marker of its support in Makerfield , where candidate Rebecca Shepherd finished a creditable third, ahead of both the Conservatives and the Greens . That kind of showing keeps Restore Britain relevant as a potential disruptor, particularly in seats where the anti-establishment vote is already large.

The 8/1 reflects a genuine, if outside, possibility of a four-way contest on the right rather than a serious expectation of Restore Britain topping the seat count. For that to happen, the party would need to pull off a remarkable surge and avoid simply splitting the Reform vote. For now it is one to watch rather than one to back.

Restore Britain

Green Party

Green Party – 14/1

The Green Party have eased out to 14/1, around a 6.7% chance, having previously been a shorter price in this market.

The Greens remain a real force in their established strongholds and in university and inner-city seats, and they continue to poll in double figures nationally. But the most seats market is unforgiving for a party whose support, however solid, is spread thinly across the country and concentrated in a relatively small number of winnable constituencies.

Realistically, the Greens are competing to grow their cluster of MPs rather than to top the seat count, and the drift to 14/1 reflects the squeeze from a polarised contest dominated by Labour and Reform .

Green Party

Liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrats – 50/1

The Liberal Democrats are the rank outsiders at 50/1, an implied chance of around 2%.

Sir Ed Davey's party enjoyed a strong 2024, building a substantial bloc of MPs across the south of England , and they remain well organised in their target seats. Their challenge in this particular market is simply one of scale: the Lib Dems are built to win clusters of seats in specific regions rather than to compete for the single largest total nationally.

At 50/1 they are firmly a novelty price for the most seats market, though they could still play a decisive role in the shape of any hung parliament. For backers, the more realistic Liberal Democrat angles lie in seat-band and coalition markets rather than here.

Liberal Democrats

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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