The next Irish General Election must be held no later than December 2029, and the market is currently pricing it as one of the most genuinely open contests the state has seen in a generation. For the first time, neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael are the outright favourites. Instead, Sinn Féin head the betting, an evens shot to win the most seats as the opposition recovers from the disappointment of November 2024.

The coalition government of Fianna Fáil , Fine Gael , and the Independent grouping entered the 34th Dáil with a working majority, but polling has deteriorated sharply in 2026. Recent by-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West in May exposed the fragility of government support, while Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats have both gained ground. The next election is expected in 2029, though an early dissolution cannot be ruled out.

Here is how the most seats market currently stands.

Most Seats Odds

Next Irish General Election - Most Seats Odds

Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.

Favourites

Most Seats Favourites

Sinn Féin

Sinn Féin – 8/11

Sinn Féin are priced at 8/11 to win the most seats at the next general election, implying a 57.9% chance they're the biggest party following the next Irish General Election.

Sinn Féin finished the 2024 election as the second largest party winning 39 seats on a reduced vote share of just under 19%, down from a peak of over 35% in the polls two years earlier. The election was widely read as a missed opportunity after a sustained period at the top of the polls, and the party has spent the subsequent period in quiet rebuilding mode under Mary Lou McDonald , who remains leader despite the setback.

The recovery in the polls has been steady. Current survey data has Sinn Féin at around 22%, back ahead of both coalition partners, and seat projection models point to them finishing as the largest party if those numbers hold. Their organisation in key urban constituencies remains formidable, and their messaging on housing and the cost of living continues to cut through with younger voters in Dublin , Cork , and beyond.

The fundamental question remains unchanged from 2024: can Sinn Féin convert first place in the popular vote into the Taoiseach's office? Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out entering coalition with them. Unless that position changes, or unless the arithmetic forces their hand, Sinn Féin could win the most seats and remain in opposition.

Sinn Féin

Fianna Fáil

Fianna Fáil – 3/1

Fianna Fáil are priced at 3/1 to win the most seats at the next Irish General Election suggesting a 25% chance of success.

The largest party in the current Dáil with 48 seats, Fianna Fáil will enter the next cycle as the party with the most to lose. Under Taoiseach Micheál Martin , who reclaimed the top job under the coalition rotation agreed after the 2024 election, the party has sought to portray itself as a steady hand in a period of global uncertainty.

The difficulty is that steady hands are rarely rewarded in the current political climate. Polling has drifted to around 16%, a significant fall from the 22% they recorded on election day in 2024. The by-election results in May 2026 underscored the vulnerability of their support base, particularly in urban constituencies where the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin are eating into their vote.

Their rural strongholds remain solid, but that alone will not be enough to retain first place.

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Fine Gael – 3/1

Fine Gael are also priced at 3/1 to be the largest party after the next Irish General Election.

Fine Gael finished third in 2024 with 38 seats, their worst result since 2002, and Simon Harris now leads a party that must rebuild its identity while in government. He retains the Taoiseach-in-waiting arrangement under the coalition rotation and is priced at 6/1 to hold that office after the next election, but the political ground has shifted considerably since 2024.

Current polling places Fine Gael at around 17%, broadly flat since the election. Their challenge is to prevent further erosion on two flanks simultaneously: from Fianna Fáil in traditional centre-right territory and from Independent Ireland in rural constituencies. At 3/1, the market views a Fine Gael recovery to first place as a live possibility but far from the likeliest outcome.

Fine Gael

Social Democrats

Social Democrats – 12/1

The Social Democrats are priced at 12/1 to be the largest party after the next Irish General Election , implying a roughly 7.6923% chance of success.

The Social Democrats won 11 seats in 2024, their best-ever result and almost double their previous total, and Holly Cairns now leads a party with clear momentum behind it. That momentum has carried into this Dáil term. The party took the Dublin Central by-election in May 2026 through Daniel Ennis , lifting its seat total to 12 and reinforcing the sense of a party on the rise.

Current polling places the Social Democrats at a record 12%, up sharply since the election. Their challenge is one of scale: converting by-election success and favourable polls into the kind of nationwide breakthrough that finishing as the largest party would require, a leap well beyond anything the party has achieved to date. At 12/1, the market treats a Social Democrats surge to first place as a genuine outsider's bet rather than a realistic expectation.

Social Democrats

Outsiders

The Outsiders

Independent Ireland at 50/1 are the shortest-priced outsider. Michael Collins' party holds 4 seats and polls at around 9%, a position that weighs more in government-formation arithmetic than in the race for most seats.

Labour at 100/1 won 11 seats in 2024 and now polls in the low single figures. Topping a 174-seat Dáil from that base would require swings far outside historical norms. Aontú at 200/1 hold 2 seats and poll at around 6%, with support that has risen each cycle but remains thinly spread across constituencies.

The Green Party at 200/1 hold a single seat after losing all but one in 2024, and poll at around 3%, placing them in recovery rather than contention. The Irish Freedom Party at 1000/1 hold no Dáil seats and register negligible national support. People Before Profit at 1000/1 hold 3 seats on a concentrated urban vote of around 2%.

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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