Makerfield By-Election 2026 Odds & Predictions: Can Reform UK Stop Andy Burnham?

The Makerfield by-election on Thursday 18 June 2026 has become one of the most closely watched parliamentary contests in years. Triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons in May, the vacancy has opened the door for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster , and the contest is widely viewed as the first step in a potential challenge for the Labour leadership itself.

What was once one of the safest Labour seats in the country is no longer a formality. Reform UK finished second here in 2024 and won all eight of the Wigan council wards in the constituency at May’s local elections, turning Makerfield into a genuine test of both parties’ direction. Fourteen candidates are on the ballot.

Here is how the outright market looks heading into polling day.

By-Election Odds

Makerfield By-Election Odds

Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.

Outright Favourites

Outright Favourites

Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham (Labour and Co-operative) – Outright Favourite

Andy Burnham is priced at 2/7to win the seat, implying a roughly 77.8% chance.

The Mayor of Greater Manchester is attempting a return to Westminster after nearly a decade away, having served as MP for neighbouring Leigh from 2001 to 2017 and held cabinet posts under Brown . His personal popularity across Greater Manchester is the central fact of this contest: the latest constituency poll put him on 49%, ten points clear of the field and well above Labour’s generic standing in the seat.

The wider significance is what comes next. Burnham is the favourite in the next Prime Minister betting, and a comfortable win here would be read as the starting gun on a leadership challenge. Anything less than comfortable, and the story changes quickly.

Andy Burnham

Robert Kenyon

Robert Kenyon (Reform UK)

Robert Kenyon is priced at 3/1 to win the seat, implying a 25% chance.

Kenyon is no token challenger. He finished second in Makerfield at the 2024 general election with nearly 13,000 votes, won a council seat in the constituency this May, and stands on the back of Reform’s clean sweep of the constituency’s wards. Constituency polling has him on 39%, a level of support that would overturn most Labour majorities against an ordinary candidate.

The obstacle is the opponent. Burnham ’s personal vote runs well ahead of his party’s, and the late polling suggests the gap has held. But by-elections produce shocks, and at 3/1 the market is treating Kenyon as a live threat rather than a forlorn hope.

Robert Kenyon

Rebecca Shepherd

Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain)

Rebecca Shepherd is priced at 14/1 to win the seat, implying a 6.7% chance.

A local businesswoman standing for Rupert Lowe ’s Restore Britain , Shepherd has registered 8% in constituency polling, a striking figure for a new party in its first major electoral test. Her campaign, focused on SEND provision and accountability, has clearly found an audience, but her likeliest impact is on Kenyon ’s vote rather than the outcome itself.

Rebecca Shepherd

The Outsiders

The Outsiders

Michael Winstanley carries the Conservative banner at 500/1. A former Wigan councillor of more than two decades who also served a term as the borough’s ceremonial mayor, he faces a brutal inheritance in a seat where the party took just under 11% in 2024, with Reform having absorbed most of the right-of-centre vote.

Sarah Wakefield , a Manchester city councillor, is the same 500/1 price for the Greens after a late entry into the race following the withdrawal of the party’s original candidate. Jake Austin of the Liberal Democrats a Stockport councillor who was born and raised in the constituency and stood against Burnham in the 2024 Greater Manchester mayoral election completes the 500/1 trio in a contest where third parties face a brutal squeeze.

Polls are open from 7 am to 10 pm on Thursday 18 June, with the result expected in the early hours of Friday morning.

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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