French Presidential Election 2027 – Outright Winner Odds, Favourites & Tips

The 2027 French Presidential Election promises to be one of the most consequential contests in the history of the Fifth Republic. With Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term, France heads into a presidential cycle without an incumbent or an heir apparent, and the centre ground he occupied for a decade is now openly contested.

At the head of the market, Jordan Bardella and Édouard Philippe are vying for favouritism as the National Rally seeks to convert years of first-round dominance into a first national victory, while Marine Le Pen's legal battle over her eligibility hangs over the entire race. The centre and centre-right are crowded, the left is fragmented, and the betting market reflects all of that uncertainty.

Here is how the outright market looks heading into the final year before the first round in April 2027.

French Presidency Odds

2027 French Presidential Election Outright Odds

Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.

Favourites

Outright Favourites

Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe (Horizons)

Édouard Philippe is priced at 9/4, narrowly the shortest price in the market and implying a roughly 30.8% chance.

The Mayor of Le Havre and former Prime Minister has been preparing for this race longer than anyone in the field, having declared his candidacy years in advance. His tenure at Matignon from 2017 to 2020 gave him governing credibility, and his deliberate distance from Macron in the years since has allowed him to present himself as continuity without the baggage.

The market views him as the strongest mainstream figure capable of consolidating anti-extremist support in a potential run-off against Bardella . His challenge is the first round: with Attal , Retailleau , and others competing for the same centrist and centre-right voters, simply reaching the run-off is far from guaranteed.

Édouard Philippe

Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella (National Rally)

Jordan Bardella is priced at 5/2 to win the presidency outright, implying a roughly 28.6% chance of election in 2027.

It is a remarkable position for a man who turned 30 only last year. Bardella has led the National Rally since 2022, steering the party to victory in the 2024 European elections, and he is currently polling around 36% for the first round, well clear of the field. He has spent the Macron years softening the party's image while keeping its core message on immigration and the cost of living intact.

The question is the second round. The so-called republican front has blocked the far right at every presidential run-off since 2002, and whether that wall holds one more time is the central question of this election. The market is pricing in the genuine possibility that it does not.

Jordan Bardella

Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen (National Rally)

Marine Le Pen is priced at 7/1 to win the presidency outright, implying a 12.5% chance, and her price is governed less by politics than by the courts.

The three-time presidential candidate was convicted in March 2025 over the misuse of EU funds and handed a five-year ban from public office with immediate effect. Her appeal verdict is expected this summer, and the outcome will determine whether she can stand at all. She made the last two presidential run-offs and would command the National Rally vote instantly if cleared.

Until the courts rule, she remains the great unknown of this race, and any position on Le Pen is as much a bet on a judgment as on an election.

Marine Le Pen

Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau (The Republicans)

Bruno Retailleau is priced at 14/1 to win the presidency outright, implying a 6.7% chance.

The leader of The Republicans built a national profile as a hardline Interior Minister, and his pitch is straightforward: right-wing voters who want firmness on immigration and security without the National Rally label. His polling sits in the high single digits, respectable for a party that collapsed to under 5% in the 2022 presidential race.

The difficulty is squeeze. Bardella dominates his right flank, and Philippe crowds his centre, leaving Retailleau fighting for a narrow lane. His route to the run-off requires one of the two men ahead of him to falter.

Bruno Retailleau

Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann (Place Publique)

Raphaël Glucksmann is priced at 14/1 to win the presidency outright, implying a 6.7% chance.

The essayist turned MEP has emerged as the standard-bearer of the moderate left, having led the joint Socialist - Place Publique list to a strong result in the 2024 European elections. Staunchly pro- European and a vocal critic of both political extremes, he offers the left a candidate with genuine crossover appeal to centrist voters.

The obstacle is the left itself. The socialists, greens, and the far-left La France Insoumise remain bitterly divided over alliances, and without a broad union behind a single candidate, the left risks missing the run-off entirely, as it did in 2017 and 2022.

Raphaël Glucksmann

Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal (Renaissance)

Gabriel Attal is priced at 18/1 to win the presidency outright, implying a 5.3% chance.

The youngest Prime Minister in the history of the Republic, Attal now leads Renaissance and carries the official mantle of Macronism into the post- Macron era. He remains one of the most polished communicators in French politics and retains a strong base among younger, urban voters.

That inheritance cuts both ways. With the outgoing administration deeply unpopular, the continuity candidate starts with a ceiling, and Philippe currently occupies the centrist lane Attal needs. His polling in the high single digits reflects a candidacy with promise but no clear path yet.

Gabriel Attal

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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