With the papal conclave set to begin on May 7th, we preview the favourites and most likely candidates to be elected to the most prestigious position in the Catholic Church.
Following the death of Pope Francis on the 21st of April, the Catholic Church has a huge decision to make about electing his successor.
For the Papal conclave, 135 cardinals will come together for a secret Vatican Conclave to ultimately decide the best candidate to lead the future of the Catholic Church.
Cardinals may not leave the Vatican until the next Pope is chosen in Casa Santa, cut off from phones, the internet, and the news. Cardinals are secluded, pray, and vote (up to four ballots daily) until a candidate gets a two-thirds majority.
The longest conclave lasted nearly 3 years, but recent ones like the election of Pope Francis, concluded in just days. Let’s look at the leading candidates to assume the highest position in the Catholic Church.
Next Pope Odds
Country | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Pietro Parolin | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Luis Antonio Tagle | 7/2 | 22.2% |
Peter Turkson | 4/1 | 20% |
Matteo Zuppi | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Pierbattista Pizzaballa | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Robert Sarah | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Peter Erdo | 11/1 | 8.3% |
Kevin Farrell | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Next Pope Betting Favourites
Peter Parolin – 5/2
The favourite to be the next Pope is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, with odds of 5/2 suggesting a 28.6% chance he is elected to the position.
Peter Parolin (70) currently holds the position of the Vatican’s Secretary of State and has been Francis' principal advisor since 2014. Thus, he is considered by many as a strong candidate for the role due to his deep diplomatic experience and strong presence within the Roman Curia (the Church's administration).
The Italian from Schiavon, Veneto, has become a prominent voice in the church when it comes to global issues, being vocal, particularly on China relations and Ukraine.
His election would likely be seen as one where the papacy enters steady and stable hands who would have the experience to understand the role and continue the church’s work in diplomatic relations.
Luis Antonio Tagle – 7/2
The second favourite to be elected as the next Pope is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, who is currently seen as having a 22.2% chance of winning the election at the Conclave.
Luis Antonio Tagle (67) is viewed by many as someone who could bring a global appeal and inclusionary perspective to the papacy, sharing Francis’ vision of a more inclusive Church and having advocated for a softer approach toward marginalised groups.
Formerly the Archbishop of Manila, he is currently in a key Vatican position in charge of overseeing evangelisation, which refers to the sharing of the Christian message, or the "Good News," with others.
Tagle is beloved by many for his “warmth”, strong communication skills and deep connection with the Church of Asia and the developing world. If the Church is looking to further foster its relationship with groups who could consider themselves previously marginalised, he could be viewed as the “unifier” needed
Peter Turkson – 4/1
The third favourite to be elected as the next Pope is Cardinal Peter Turkson, from Ghana, who currently has a 20% chance of winning the election at the Conclave.
Peter Turkson (76) is one of the most prominent African figures in the Catholic Church and someone who has become a respected voice on global social justice. He was made a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003. And was previously seen as a candidate for the papacy in 2013.
He’s not afraid to give his opinions either, being a strong spokesman on the effects of climate change, economic inequality, and peacebuilding, Turkson has held influential roles within the Vatican, including as Prefect of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development.
Matteo Zuppi – 7/1
Next in the betting to be elected as the next Pope is Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, from Italy, who is priced as having a 12.5% chance of winning the election at the Conclave.
Matteo Zuppi (69) has been the Archbishop of Bologna since December 2015 and was previously an auxiliary bishop of Rome from 2012 to 2015. Pope Francis raised him to the rank of cardinal in 2019. He has been president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy since May 2022.
Another who would be seen as a “continuity candidate” to succeed Pope Francis, Matteo is also known for his outspoken and progressive opinions, emphasising care for marginalised groups.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa – 7/1
The final favourite for the next Conclave vote is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, who is also seen as having a 12.5% chance of being elected.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (60) is viewed by many as one of the leading “younger” candidates for the papacy. Originally from Cologno al Serio, Italy, he currently serves as the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem since November 2020. He was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023
As a potential candidate, he’s seen as a diplomatic, moderate papabile with strong ties to the Holy Land, though his Middle Eastern focus and nuanced political stances might challenge conservative factions.
As the world waits for white smoke to rise from the Sistine Chapel, the betting odds suggest a tight race among several compelling candidates. Whether the Church opts for continuity or change, the decision will shape the future of over a billion Catholics worldwide.
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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