We take a look at the latest Nevada Election Odds as we examine one of the key battleground states ahead of the US Presidential Election next November.
Ahead of the US Election, Nevada is viewed as one of the key “Swing States” which could ultimately decide the winner of the US Presidential Election.
Hilary Clinton won this state for the Democratic Party in 2016 with a 47.92% share of the vote to Donald Trump's 45.50%. Interestingly the gap widened in 2020 though with Joe Biden earning 50.06% of the vote to Trump's 47.67% even with the latter increasing his total votes from 2016.
Nevada Election Odds
Team | Odds | Chance |
Kamala Harris - Democrats | 5/6 | 54.5% |
Donald Trump - Republicans | 5/6 | 54.5% |
Kamala Harris is currently joint 5/6 favourite in the race to win Nevada which implies a 42.1% chance that the Democrat Party win the state for the fourth successive US Presidential Election.
Donald Trump is seen as a 10/15 favourite to win Nevada which implies a 55.6% chance that he wins the state for the second time in his political history having won it on the way to his election in 2016.
Per OddsChecker, the race to win Nevada looks to be razor tight with both the Republicans Party and the Democrat Party taking 50% of the vote each.
What is a Swing State?
A swing state (also known as a battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes.
The seven “Swing States” which is set to decide the 2024 US Election have been dubbed as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Nevada was won by Joe Biden in the 2020 US Presidential Election and was won by Hilary Clinton in the 2016 US Presidential Election.
Latest Polling
Per FiveThirtyEight, which is a site that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States, the race to win the state of Nevada is on a knife edge.
Factoring for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects Kamala Harris is currently leading in the polls by the slimmest of margins on a polling average of 45.8% compared to Donald Trump who is on a total of 45.5%.
Polls should always be taken with a pinch of salt as the 2016 US Presidential Election proved but those poll numbers has this swing state has it favouring the Democrat Party despite the current betting odds.
Previous Results
During the 2020 Presidential Election, the state of Nevada was won by Joe Biden with a cumulative vote of 703,486 which amounted to 50.06% of the vote compared with Trump’s total of 669,890 which was 47.67% of the vote. Thus despite increasing his votes in 2016, Trump lost the state.
In 2016 the state was won by Hilary Clinton after she won a cumulative of 539,260 votes and 47.92% of the vote compared to Trump who had 512, 058 for 45.50%
Nevada Election Prediction & Best Bet
Prediction: Kamala Harris - (The Democrat Party)
While this is theoretically a “Swing State” it does tend to favour the Democrat Candidate in recent times with them being victorious in the state in 6 of the last 8 elections.
The odds have Donald Trump favourite, but I suspect this state seems to favour the Democrat Party and with Kamala's longer odds I think she is the bet here.
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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