Forget the Favourite: The Trends That Actually Predict Who Wins the…

Published on April 8th, 2026

The Grand National is the race that captures the imagination of the entire nation every April. Millions will pick their horse by name, colour of silks, or a tip from a friend – but the statistics tell a rather more instructive story. Here's what the data says ahead of Saturday's 4pm showpiece at Aintree.

The Randox Grand National on Saturday 11th April features a confirmed field of 34 runners tackling 30 fences over four miles and two furlongs. Picking a winner from such a large field can feel overwhelming. But look back through the results and clear patterns emerge. The National is unpredictable – but it is not unreadable.

Grand National Trends & Key Stats

Age: Youth Is Now the Dominant Force

For many years, experience and age were considered prerequisites at Aintree. That has changed dramatically. Horses aged under ten have now won the last ten runnings of the Grand National – a remarkable run that broadly coincides with the safety modifications introduced to the race's fences and conditions.

Nine of the last ten winners were aged either eight or nine. Look at recent winners and the picture is consistent: Corach Rambler was nine, while I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett were both eight when they won in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Ten of the last eleven winners were aged between seven and nine.

Noble Yeats is the only horse in that group to have won younger, landing the 2022 race as a seven-year-old at 50/1 – the first of that age to win since Bogskar back in 1940. That was an extraordinary exception. At the other end of the scale, no horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923, and none has even placed since 1969.

The old assumption that the Grand National required an older, battle-hardened chaser has been firmly overturned. Lightly raced horses are now coming to the fore – Noble Yeats won on just his eighth chase start, and Nick Rockett was also having only his eighth chase run when he landed the race last year.

Key age stats at a glance

9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or 9
10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 7 and 9
Horses aged under 10 have won the last 10 runnings
No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923
Just one winner aged 7 or younger since 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)

Weight: The Old Rules Are Shifting – But Tread Carefully

Weight used to be one of the most reliable filters in Grand National analysis. The historical data still carries a warning: 25 of the last 34 winners carried 10st 13lb or less. Since 1978, only three horses carrying 11st 6lb or more have won – Many Clouds (11st 9lb) in 2015, Neptune Collonges (11st 6lb) in 2012, and I Am Maximus (11st 6lb) in 2024.

However, the trend is shifting with the smaller field. Since the race was reduced to 34 runners, the handicap has compressed significantly. In 2024, the entire 1-2-3-4 carried over 11st. Last season, the first three home all carried 11st 8lb or more – and the only horse to finish in the first four carrying under 11st was Iroko, off 10st 11lb. Nick Rockett's winning weight of 11st 8lb was the highest since Red Rum.

The message? Blindly opposing top weights is no longer the straightforward strategy it once was – but extreme caution at the very head of the handicap remains warranted.

Key weight stats at a glance:

25 of the last 34 winners carried 10st 13lb or less
Since 1978, only 3 winners have carried 11st 6lb or more
Since the field reduced to 34, only one horse in the first four carried under 11st (Iroko, 2025)
The 2024 top four all carried over 11st; the 2025 top three all carried 11st 8lb+
Nick Rockett's 11st 8lb was the highest winning weight since Red Rum

The Market: Look to the Mid-Range

The Grand National is famous for shock results, but the statistics point firmly towards the informed mid-market as the most productive place to find the winner. Six of the last seven winners returned at 14/1 or shorter. Only Noble Yeats at 50/1 in 2022 has seriously tested the bookmakers since 2017.

Backing the favourite is no guaranteed shortcut either. Just eight of the last 34 runnings have been won by the market leader – a 24% strike rate. That said, two of the last three winners were sent off favourite or joint favourite, so the market is not without merit.

The most telling stat is this: 24 of the last 34 winners came from outside the top three in the betting, while 13 of the last 22 winners came from the top eight. The National does not reward blind faith in short prices – but it does tend to reward the educated mid-range selection.

Key market stats at a glance:

8 of the last 34 winners were sent off favourite (24%)
2 of the last 3 winners were favourite or joint favourite
6 of the last 7 winners returned at 14/1 or shorter
13 of the last 22 winners came from the top 8 in the betting
24 of the last 34 winners came from outside the top 3 in the market

Ireland's Dominance

The most defining trend of the modern Grand National era is the dominance of Irish-trained horses. Seven of the last nine winners were trained in Ireland, and when you factor in Scotland's Lucinda Russell – the only non-Irish trainer to win in that period – Ireland and Russell have combined to win all of the last nine runnings.

Willie Mullins is the central figure. Having already won the race with Hedgehunter, I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett, he is chasing a fourth Grand National victory on Saturday – a total that would stand alone among modern trainers. Last year he saddled the first, second, third, fifth and seventh. In 2024, Irish-trained horses filled six of the first seven places.

Mullins is the leading trainer at the Grand National meeting over the past ten festivals, with 27 winners from 157 runners. By contrast, Nicky Henderson – who has 25 winners from 176 runners at the meeting overall – has yet to win the Grand National itself from 43 attempts, and the statistics class him as a negative pointer.

Six of the last twelve Irish-trained Grand National winners had run over hurdles in one of their two previous races – a secondary trend worth noting when scanning the form of Irish-trained runners.

Key Ireland stats at a glance:

7 of the last 9 winners were trained in Ireland
Ireland and Lucinda Russell have won ALL of the last 9 runnings
Willie Mullins has won 3 Grand Nationals and leads the Aintree Festival trainer table (27 winners from 157 runners over the last 10 festivals)
Nicky Henderson has never won the Grand National from 43 runners — a notable negative pointer
14 of the last 34 winners were trained in Ireland, including 11 of the last 19

The Bobbyjo Chase Connection

One of the most compelling prep race trends to emerge in recent years is the link between the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse and Aintree glory. The last two Grand National winners – I Am Maximus in 2024 and Nick Rockett in 2025 – both won that race in the build-up to Aintree. More broadly, six of the last seven Grand National winners ran in the Ultima Chase, Bobbyjo Chase or Cross Country Chase before winning the race.

This season, Grangeclare West won the 2026 Bobbyjo Chase. That single fact makes him one of the most statistically compelling runners in the field. The 'well-in' angle reinforces his claims further – seven of the last 18 winners were officially well-handicapped having improved since the weights were issued in February, six of them by 5lb or more.

Key prep race stats at a glance:

The last 2 Grand National winners both won the Bobbyjo Chase beforehand
6 of the last 7 winners ran in the Ultima, Bobbyjo Chase or Cross Country Chase before Aintree
7 of the last 18 winners were officially 'well in' at the weights, 6 of them by 5lb or more
Grangeclare West won the 2026 Bobbyjo Chase — the same race that preceded both I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett's victories

Fitness and Stamina: Two Non-Negotiables

Two further trends are worth committing to memory before studying the field.

Fitness matters. Thirty-one of the last 33 winners had their previous run no more than 55 days before the race, and 25 of the last 34 raced no more than 34 days beforehand. Nick Rockett won last year 42 days after his Bobbyjo Chase run. Horses arriving at Aintree after a prolonged absence are working against the statistics.

Stamina is a must. Thirty of the last 34 winners had won over three miles or further before their Grand National success. Rule The World, Minella Times and Noble Yeats are notable recent exceptions, but backing a horse whose stamina for this particular test is unproven remains a significant risk. At over four miles, the Grand National punishes those who come up short.

Key fitness and stamina stats at a glance:

31 of the last 33 winners had their previous run no more than 55 days before the race
25 of the last 34 winners raced no more than 34 days beforehand
30 of the last 34 winners had won over 3 miles or further before Aintree
Only 3 winners since 1970 had not won over 3m+ — and all three came in the last 9 runnings
Horses that ran more than 56 days ago have a poor record

Tongue-Ties, Course Form, and a Quick Checklist

One lesser-discussed trend that has been building steadily: five of the last eight Grand National winners wore a tongue-tie. It is not a trend to bet on in isolation, but it is a useful secondary pointer when weighing up borderline selections.

On course experience, having run at Aintree previously brings no great statistical advantage – 15 of the last 17 winners were having their first run in the race. The Topham and Becher Chases are not reliable guides either, having produced only a handful of National winners between them.

Before finalising your selection, the statistics suggest looking for: a horse trained in Ireland; aged eight or nine; no more than two seasons over fences; officially well-in at the weights; having run within the last 55 days; with a win over three miles on their record; and ideally having contested the Bobbyjo Chase, Ultima or Cross Country Chase in the build-up.

On the negative side, steer clear of: horses aged ten or older; those considered 2m4f specialists; runners that have fallen or unseated more than twice in their career; and anything trained by Nicky Henderson.

Positive pointers – look for:

Trained in Ireland (notably by Willie Mullins)
Aged 8 or 9, with no more than two seasons over fences
Officially 'well in' since the weights were released — especially 5lb or more
Ran over hurdles earlier in the season
Contested the Bobbyjo Chase, Ultima or Cross Country Chase in the build-up
Previous run within the last 55 days
A win over 3 miles or further on their record
Owned by JP McManus, Hemmings Racing or Gigginstown House Stud
Bred in Ireland
Wearing a tongue-tie (5 of the last 8 winners)

Negative pointers – be wary of:

Aged 10 or older
Considered a 2m4f specialist
Fallen or unseated more than twice in their career
Winner of the Haydock Grand National Trial or Sky Bet Chase
Trained by Nicky Henderson
More than seven runs this season
Last run more than 56 days ago

No checklist guarantees success in the Grand National – that is part of what makes it the greatest race in the world. But the patterns above, drawn from decades of results, offer a genuine framework for cutting through the noise when the field is as large and competitive as the one that lines up at Aintree this Saturday.

The 2026 Grand National gets underway at 4 pm on Saturday, the 11th of April.

Bet on the 2026 Aintree Grand National at BOYLE Sports

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