Thursday 12 March 2026 | 13:20 | Cheltenham New Course | 2m 179y | Grade 2
The Mares' Novices' Hurdle is one of the most compelling races of the entire Cheltenham Festival – and in 2026, it arrives with a question that every punter needs to answer before placing a penny. The last seven favourites were beaten in this race. Six of them went off at odds shorter than 3/1. On Thursday, Bambino Fever goes to post at 11/10. That is the one stat that should give every favourite backer pause.
And yet – the case for Bambino Fever is genuinely hard to dismiss. The Champion Bumper winner. A natural hurdler. Trained by the man who won this race five times in a row. The question is not whether she is good enough. The question is whether the race has a habit of humbling even the very best.
Trends
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle Key Trends Every Punter Should Know
Before you back anything in this race, run every horse through these filters. They have defined the winner every year since the race began in 2016:
- Age: All 10 winners have been aged five or six. The race has never been won by a four-year-old or a seven-year-old.
- The Favourite Trap: The last seven favourites were beaten – six of them sent off at odds under 3/1. Bambino Fever goes to post at 11/10, making her the most vulnerable type historically.
- Last Time Out: All 10 winners finished in the first three on their previous start. A top-three finish last time out is the single most reliable form filter in the race.
- Official Rating: Seven of the last 10 winners were rated 135 or higher. Horses well below that benchmark rarely trouble the judge.
- Bumper Winners: The last four winners had won a bumper at some point in their careers – a useful form filter that eliminates several at the foot of the market.
- Prep Race Profile: All 10 winners had either run against geldings or won a Graded mares' hurdle on their previous start. This is the most powerful filter of all and eliminates several market fancies.
- Graded Form: Seven of the last 10 winners had previously won or been placed in a Graded race. Class tells in this race.
- The Mullins Shift: Willie Mullins won the first five renewals of this race. He has not won it since 2020 – five consecutive failures despite regularly fielding strong runners.
- Irish Dominance: Seven of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland. British-trained runners have won only three times in the race's history.
- Distance: Eight of the 10 winners had previously won over further than 2 miles 1 furlong. Stamina is rewarded up the Cheltenham hill.
Apply those filters to the 2026 field and three horses emerge on the trends shortlist: Carrigmoornaspruce, Bambino Fever, and Oldschool Outlaw. The favourite is on the list – but so is the stat that has beaten every market leader since 2018.
Betting Odds
Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle 2026 – Betting Odds
Horse | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Bambino Fever | 11/10 | 47.6% |
Oldschool Outlaw | 4/1 | 20.0% |
Carrigmoornaspruce | 9/1 | 10.0% |
Echoing Silence | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Kingston Queen | 14/1 | 6.7% |
La Conquiere | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Charme De Faust | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Future Prospect | 22/1 | 4.3% |
Place De La Nation | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Manganese | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Mille Et Une Vies | 28/1 | 3.4% |
Full Of Life | 33/1 | 2.9% |
White Noise | 50/1 | 2.0% |
Blue Velvet | 50/1 | 2.0% |
Diamond Du Berlais | 50/1 | 2.0% |
Jackie Hobbs | 66/1 | 1.5% |
St Irene | 66/1 | 1.5% |
Chosen Comrade | 80/1 | 1.2% |
Louve D'Irlande | 100/1 | 1.0% |
Al Fonce | 150/1 | 0.7% |
Scavengers Reign | 200/1 | 0.5% |
Tips
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle Tips
Bambino Fever – 11/10 | Trainer: W.P. Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend | Form: 1111-21 | NAP
Last year's Champion Bumper winner arrives as the most talked-about mare at the Festival. Bambino Fever is a horse who simply oozes class – she won four bumpers on the bounce, including at Cheltenham's Festival itself, before making a seamless switch to hurdles. She was beaten on her hurdling debut by Oldschool Outlaw at Naas in December, but the Mullins yard was not firing at its best that month, and she has since responded emphatically, galloping home by 12 lengths at Fairyhouse in January with notably improved jumping.
Paul Townend takes the ride; the course form is already there, and her RPR of 145 is among the highest in the field. Willie Mullins won the first five renewals of this race and knows exactly what it takes. The tongue strap goes on for the first time, which connections hope will sharpen her jumping further.
The concern: The last seven favourites were beaten. Six at odds shorter than 3/1. Bambino Fever goes off at 11/10 – shorter than all of them. The trend is not her friend, and Oldschool Outlaw has already beaten her once this season.
Verdict: Our NAP of Day 3 at the Cheltenham Festival.
Oldschool Outlaw – 4/1 | Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Mark Walsh | Form: 327-111
The only horse in this field to have beaten Bambino Fever – and she did it on her hurdling debut at Naas in December, before following up with a no-nonsense win at Grade 3 level. Oldschool Outlaw is trained by Gordon Elliott, ridden by Mark Walsh, and owned by JP McManus. That combination alone demands the utmost respect at any Cheltenham Festival.
Her RPR of 147 is the highest in the entire field – higher even than Bambino Fever. She is improving rapidly, her best form comes on softer ground, and the current going is forecast to remain on the better side. If the ground dries out further, connections will be anxious. If it stays good to soft, she is a massive player.
The concern: Ground is the key question. She ideally wants it softer than forecast. Mark Walsh's choice of this mount over others in the Mullins string is also worth noting – he clearly believes in her.
Verdict: The biggest danger to the NAP. Each-way at the minimum.
Carrigmoornaspruce – 9/1 | Trainer: Declan Queally | Jockey: James Bowen | Form: 321-122
The trends horse. Carrigmoornaspruce matches every key historical filter for this race – she is six years old, rated 135, finished second on her last two starts in top company, has bumper form, and ran against geldings in her prep race. She finished second behind a classy gelding at Leopardstown in a Grade 1 and has been consistently knocking on the door at the top level all season.
Declan Queally is not a household name, but he has produced a mare in outstanding form. At 9/1, she represents genuine each-way value in a race the trends say is wide open, and tipster Johnny Dineen of Paddy Power singled her out specifically as his each-way play. She is, in the words of Racing Post's Alistair Jones, 'just an all-round good egg.'
The concern: She has been second twice recently rather than winning. Can she find the extra gear needed to beat the top two on Festival day?
Verdict: Strong each-way claims. The trends point here more than anywhere.
Echoing Silence – 12/1 | Trainer: Henry De Bromhead | Jockey: Darragh O'Keeffe | Form: 1/51-11
The De Bromhead stablemate angle is compelling. Air Of Entitlement won this race at 16/1 last year for the same trainer-jockey combination, and the profile of Echoing Silence is almost identical – a mare who won a good Cork maiden before landing a Listed race at Punchestown in December, beating a mare who had twice given Bambino Fever a race in bumpers. That piece of collateral form is quietly significant.
She is dropping back in distance here, which is exactly what Air Of Entitlement did 12 months ago before winning. De Bromhead knows what this race requires, Darragh O'Keeffe rode her to her last win, and at 12/1 the each-way proposition – with six places on offer for 22+ runners – is extremely attractive.
The concern: Her RPR of 139 is below the top handful, and she has only run twice over hurdles. Experience at Grade 2 level is unproven.
Verdict: Our each-way pick. The stablemate blueprint and the price make this irresistible.
La Conquiere – 14/1 | Trainer: Jamie Snowden | Jockey: Gavin Sheehan | Form: 22-112
Jamie Snowden won this race in 2023 with You Wear It Well, who arrived with a similar profile – strong bumper form followed by a Listed hurdle win. La Conquiere brings exactly that to the table, with a high-quality Aintree Grade 2 bumper run-up on her CV and a Listed hurdle win this season. Her run at Ascot was better than it looked on paper, racing tactically in a slowly-run race before finishing second.
Andy Robson of Paddy Power is firmly in her corner, and the 2023-winning trainer angle gives her strong historical claims. At 14/1 with six places paid, she merits serious each-way consideration.
The concern: Her prep race profile does not fully satisfy the key trend – she did not run against geldings or win a Graded mares' hurdle last time. That is the most powerful filter in the race, and she fails it.
Verdict: Interesting each-way claims, but the prep race trend is a concern.
Kingston Queen – 14/1 | Trainer: David Pipe | Jockey: Jack Tudor | Form: 113-131
The best of the British. Kingston Queen won a Grade 2 at Warwick last time out and goes to post in first-time cheekpieces, which Timeform specifically flagged as a potential positive. She was sent off favourite when third at Cheltenham in December, so she has course form – just not winning course form.
David Pipe is a trainer who prepares his horses meticulously for Festival targets, and Kingston Queen has been campaigned specifically with Thursday in mind. Jack Tudor is a confident booking. However, seven of the last 10 winners were Irish-trained, and she likely needs the cheekpieces to unlock a new level on Festival day.
The concern: She may lack the final gear compared to the leading Irish mares. Her OR of 129 is below the 135+ trend band that defines most winners.
Verdict: Place claims in first-time cheekpieces, but hard to fancy winning outright.
Considerations
Others to Consider
Charme De Faust (14/1, W.P. Mullins): Hugely impressive on debut at Thurles with raw ability clearly not in doubt. Only two career starts is the problem – the experience gap at Grade 2 level on Festival day is significant. The 4-year-old record in this race is also weak.
Future Prospect (22/1, W.P. Mullins): Won a messy race at Naas where hurdles were omitted. Hard to assess properly. Lacks proven graded form and is a difficult one to trust in this company.
Place De La Nation (25/1, W.P. Mullins): Fifth in the Triumph Hurdle last year and improved early this season, but was outclassed by Oldschool Outlaw at Fairyhouse in the Grade 3. Needs a significant step forward.
Manganese (25/1, Max Comley): Unbeaten in four starts over hurdles, including a Listed win at Doncaster. Unexposed and improving – a potential danger horse at the price. The deep Grade 2 company is a big ask, but she is not dismissed.
St Irene (66/1, Nick Scholfield): Tagged as the highest scorer for ground by Racing Post Smart View – worth a small interest if the ground is quick. Unbeaten in her last two runs, but the class rise here is enormous.
Full Of Life (33/1, Henry De Bromhead): Made all to win a Grade 3 at Down Royal and is a game mare, but she has already tried fences and is more exposed than the typical winner of this race. Honest but vulnerable.
Betting Offers
BOYLE Sports Betting Offers for the Mares' Novices' Hurdle
With 22 runners declared, the Extra Places offer is the headline act for this race:
Extra Places – 1/5 odds, 6 places (if 22+ runners): A full field means six places paid out at 1/5 odds if all 22 horses run. This transforms the each-way proposition dramatically. Echoing Silence at 12/1 pays a healthy return for a place finish, while Carrigmoornaspruce at 9/1 and La Conquiere at 14/1 both become compelling each-way plays with six safety nets.
Money Back as a Free Bet if Your Horse Loses: BOYLE Sports will give you your stake back as a free bet if your selection loses in the first race every day at Cheltenham Festival. Max free bet is £/€10. This applies to win singles and win part of each-way singles (outright) only — antepost, combined odds, multis, free bets, void and cashed-out bets are excluded. Full T&Cs apply.
Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG): Always take an early price with BOG in place. If the SP is bigger than your morning price, you get paid at the bigger number. In a race where the market can move dramatically once the favourite's fate becomes clearer, this is invaluable.
Predictions
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Prediction – Cheltenham Festival 2026
Here is the tension at the heart of this race: Bambino Fever is probably the best mare in the field. And yet the race has an almost unerring habit of finding a reason to beat the favourite. Seven consecutive market leaders have been turned over. Six of them went off shorter than 3/1. On Thursday, Bambino Fever goes to post at 11/10 – the shortest price any favourite has been sent off at in this race's history.
Does that mean she loses? Not necessarily. But it means the each-way market is extraordinarily generous to anyone prepared to look beyond her. The trends shortlist throws up Carrigmoornaspruce and Oldschool Outlaw as the two most credible dangers, and the De Bromhead stablemate angle with Echoing Silence is the most intriguing narrative in the race.
NAP: Bambino Fever (11/10)
The class is there, the course form is there, and the trainer knows exactly what this race demands. A Champion Bumper winner stepping up to Grade 2 hurdle company with Paul Townend in the saddle is a formidable proposition. The tongue strap and the Fairyhouse form suggest the best is still to come. She is our NAP – but back her through the Money Back offer to give yourself a safety net if the trend strikes again.
Each-Way: Echoing Silence (12/1)
The blueprint is almost identical to last year's 16/1 winner Air Of Entitlement. Same trainer, same jockey, same distance drop, same December Listed win. De Bromhead clearly knows how to target this race and Echoing Silence's collateral form – beating a mare who pushed Bambino Fever twice in bumpers – is quietly significant. At 12/1 with six places on offer, she is the most attractive each-way bet on the entire Day 3 card.
If you want to cast wider, Carrigmoornaspruce at 9/1 ticks every historical trend box and represents fair each-way value for a mare who has been knocking on the door at the top level all season. She is the trends horse and deserves to be in every each-way multiple.
About The Race
What is the Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle?
The Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle – registered as the Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle and universally known as the Mares' Novices' – is a Grade 2 race run over 2 miles and 179 yards on Cheltenham's New Course on Day 3 of the Festival. It is restricted to mares who are novices over hurdles and carries a prize fund that attracts the best juvenile mares from Ireland, Britain, and France.
Named in honour of Dawn Run – the only horse to win both the Champion Hurdle and the Cheltenham Gold Cup – the race has been part of the Festival since 2016 and has quickly established itself as one of the most hotly contested novice races on the card. It is run over 8 hurdles and, with 22 runners declared in 2026, qualifies for BOYLE Sports' Extra Places offer of 1/5 odds for the first 6 places if all 22 horses run.
History, Prestige & The Mullins Dynasty
The Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle was introduced at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival and immediately became the property of Willie Mullins, who trained the first five winners in a row – Limini (2016), Let's Dance (2017), Laurina (2018), Eglantine Du Seuil (2019), and Concertista (2020). All five were French-breds who had started their jumping careers in France, a pattern that defined the race's early identity.
Since 2020, however, the race has found a new character entirely. Mullins has run 22 horses in the last five renewals without a winner – his best result a third. The roll of honour since his dominance ended reads: Telmesomethinggirl (2021, Henry De Bromhead, 5/1), Love Envoi (2022, H Fry, 15/2), You Wear It Well (2023, Jamie Snowden, 16/1), Golden Ace (2024, Jeremy Scott, 10/1), and Air Of Entitlement (2025, Henry De Bromhead, 16/1).
The most notable recent storyline is the Champion Hurdle connection. Golden Ace won the 2024 edition and went on to win the Champion Hurdle a year later. Epatante, who disappointed in the 2018 running, also won the Champion Hurdle 12 months later. The race has an emerging reputation as a pointer to hurdling greatness, which makes Bambino Fever's participation in 2026 all the more intriguing.
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