Fianna Fáil Irish Election Odds: Latest Polling, Election History & Betting Tips

In this post, we take a look at the latest Fianna Fáil Irish Election Odds plus the latest polling, and election history along with betting tips ahead of this November’s Irish General Election.

Fianna Fáil was founded as a republican party in 1926 by Éamon de Valera and his supporters after they split from Sinn Féin to take seats in the Oireachtas, which Sinn Féin refused to recognise.

Michael Martin, who is a Cork South Central TD has been leader of the party since the 26th of January 2011.

Irish General Election Most Seats Odds

Fine Gael are the current favourites to win the most seats at the next Irish General Election with odds of 4/6.

Fianna Fail are seen as the second most likely party with odds of 6/4 to win the most seats.

Sinn Fein , who had a surge at the last general election, are now 7/1 to be the party to come out of this election with the most TDs.

There is then a steep drop off in the betting to new party Independent Ireland who have odds of 125/1 to win the most seats.

Departing TDs

Barry Cowen vacated his seat in the Laois-Offaly constituency when he was elected to the European Parliament on the 16th of July.

Long Serving TDs Sean Haughey in Dublin Bay North who was first elected in 1987 and Éamon Ó Cuiv in Galway West who was first elected in 1992 have both retired.

The final departing TD is Jackie Cahill who had served the Tipperary Constituency since 2016.

Latest Polling

Per the latest Sunday Business/Red-C poll, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are set to fight it out for an overall majority in government with Micheál Martin making gains on Simon Harris.

Over half of voters reportedly see Sinn Féin as unfit for government (per Red C polling in October) with the gap between the party to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil having widened in recent months.

POLL: Business Post/Red C (Nov 7th)

Fine Gael 22% (+0%)

Fianna Fáil 21% (+0%)

Sinn Féin 18% (+1%)

Social Democrats 6% (+1%)

Aontú 5% (+2%)

Green Party 4% (+1%)

Labour 3% (-1%)

PBP-Solidarity 3% (-1%)

Independents/Others 19%

Previous Irish Election Results

Fianna Fáil were the most electorally successful party in the 20th-century democratic across Europe (1901-2000) and since 1997 have led three governments, been opposition once, part of a confidence supply agreement and since 2020 have been a part of the coalition with Fine Gael.

The last Irish General Election took place on February 8th, 2020. This election saw Fianna Fáil become the largest party in Dáil Éireann albeit by a small margin with 38 seats won they actually lost 6 from their 2016 victory, but it was still more than Sinn Fein who won 37 and Fine Gael who won 35.

This eventually saw them forming a coalition government with both Fine Gael and the Green Party officially coming together on the 20th of February 2020.

Taoiseach After Next General Election Odds

Fine Gael leader Simon Harris is currently seen as the most likely candidate to be Taoiseach for the Government of the 34th Dáil with odds of 4/5.

Micheál Martin is seen as the next most likely candidate to be Taoiseach for the Government of the 34th Dáil with odds of 6/5 that he will get the honour again after holding the position from the 27th June 2020 to the 17th December 2022.

Leader of Sinn Féin, Mary Lou McDonald, is the outsider in the race at 7/1 odds that she becomes both the first-ever Sinn Féin and female taoiseach.

Odds On Fianna Fáil Governments After Next Election

If Fianna Fáil are to be part of the government after the next election then it is most likely that they form that government with Fine Gael. The two parties are of course very familiar with this situation, and indeed the people of Ireland, as they have formed a coalition government since 2020 along with the Green Party, the Labour Party and Independents are looking most likely to play the role the Green Party did in 2020 this time around.

A Fianna Fáil minority government isn’t completely out of the question at odds of 14/1 per the latest politics odds at BoyleSports. A majority government for the party led by Michael Martin looks out of the question according to our oddsmakers with odds of 100/1 on this being the government after the next election.

Fianna Fáil Irish Election Prediction

Prediction: Fianna Fáil/ Fine Gael / Independent Ireland @ 5/1

Fianna Fáil may have made a little surge going by recent polls and the tightening in the odds market suggests to me that they’re very active players in this Irish General Election

They returned the largest seat total last time around and I initially thought they could be punished by the electorate due to the fact that they hadn’t achieved enough in government. However, unlike other parties, one criticism which can’t be laid at Fianna FáIl is an unwillingness to enter government.

It’s a toss-up for me on whether Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael win the most seats, but I think the newly formed Independent Ireland might fancy their chances at entering into government as a junior partner whereas the Independents may wish to stay away from government and protect their “anti-establishment” narratives.

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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