It’s that time of year again and we are previewing the favourites to finish last on Saturday Night in the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest Final.
The Grand Final of the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest is set to take place on Saturday which will be the 68th edition of the event. It will take place in Malmö, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest with the song "Tattoo" by Loreen.
2024 Eurovision Grand Final Competing Countries
The 26 qualifiers for the event are as follows:
Semi-Final (1) Qualifiers: Cyprus, Serbia, Lithuania, Ireland, Ukraine, Croatia, Slovenia, Finland, Portugal and Luxembourg.
Semi-Final (2) Qualifiers: Greece, Switzerland, Austria, Armenia, Latvia, Georgia, Estonia, Israel, Norway and The Netherlands.
Plus there is the “Big Five” + (Reigning Champions): France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and (Sweden).
This post previews the most likely country to finish bottom of the leaderboard on Saturday Night.
Eurovision To Finish Last Odds
Country | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Spain | 7/4 | 36.4% |
Germany | 5/2 | 28.6% |
United Kingdom | 3/1 | 25% |
Luxembourg | 11/2 | 15.3% |
Estonia | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Latvia | 18/1 | 5.3% |
Portugal | 40/1 | 2.4% |
Serbia | 40/1 | 2.4% |
Austria | 50/1 | 2 % |
Slovenia | 50/1 | 2% |
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Eurovision To Finish Last Favourites
Spain – 7/4
The holder of the unwanted tag of “favourite To Finish Last” on Saturday Night in the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest is Spain odds of 7/4. Those odds imply that Spain has a 36.4% chance of finishing with the least amount of points.
Spain automatically qualified for Saturday's Grand Final due to their status as one of the “Big Five” with Italy, Germany, France and the UK who make the biggest financial contributions to the European Broadcasting Union (EBU).
The Spanish has participated in the Eurovision Song Contest in every edition since 1961, in total 62 times. Their Eurovision record is a mixed bag though despite successes in 1968 and 1969 they have finished last with zero points three times: in 1962, 1965 and 1983, and also finished last in 1999 and 2017.
Spain will be represented at the 2024 Finals by Nebulossa with the selected song “Zorra”. However, despite their “unlikely” success in the Spanish selection contest it’s not expected to pluck up many trees on Saturday Night. It’s an 80s electro-style pop song with a catchy rhythm and repetitive lyrics. It’s done well in the Spanish LGBT scene but the message of the song saying women should be proud “sluts” has garnered controversy which sees it a likely bottom finisher.
Only Finland and Norway (11), Germany and Switzerland (9) and Austria and Belgium (8) have finished last more than Spain who have 5 times along with Latvia, The Netherlands and The United Kingdom. Don’t rule out a repeat on Saturday Night.
Germany – 5/2
Germany are second favourites to finish bottom at 5/2. Those odds imply that the Germans have a 28.6% chance of finishing bottom.
Germany also automatically qualified for Saturday's Grand Final due to their status as one of the “Big Five” with Italy, Spain, France and the UK who make the biggest financial contributions to the European Broadcasting Union (EBU).
Germany has participated in every Eurovision Song Contest since its inaugural edition in 1956, except in 1996 when its entry did not qualify past the audio-only pre-selection round. Germany are another with mixed success in the competition winning it in 1982 and 2010. However, their 9 last-place finishes are only less than Finland and Norway with (11)
This year the country will be represented by Isaak with the song “Always on the Run” which is a Pop Ballad about "running from the problems I never solved" to a location of "salvation". However, it’s not expected to perform well at the finals with other more distinctive songs preferred to something which could be considered a “safe” choice.
United Kingdom – 3/1
Remarkably, despite being installed as 6/1 favourites early in the Eurovision season, the UK are now third favourites to finish bottom at 3/1. Those odds imply they have a 25% chance of receiving the unwanted feat on Saturday Night.
The United Kingdom has participated in the Eurovision Song Contest 65 times, first taking part in the contest back in 1957 and has entered every year since 1959. Along with Sweden and the Netherlands, the UK is one of only 3 countries with Eurovision victories in 4 different decades winning in 1967, 1969, 1976, 1981 and 1997. Their total of 5 victories is level with France, Luxembourg and The Netherlands behind only Ireland and Sweden (both on 7). However, they have also finished bottom on 4 occasions in 2008, 2010, 2019 and 2021.
The UK also automatically qualified for Saturday's Grand Final due to their status as one of the “Big Five” along with Italy, Spain, France and Germany who make the biggest financial contributions to the European Broadcasting Union (EBU).
This year they intended to go big for success by selecting the singing talents of former Years & Years singer Olly Alexander and before the song came out suggested they would win Eurovision 2024. However, the song "Dizzy” has failed to gather much fanfare and now could finish bottom on Saturday Night.
However, I feel Olly’s relatively “high” profile will mean they avoid the bottom of the table.
Luxembourg – 11/2
Luxembourg are seen as the fourth most likely nation to finish bottom of the Eurovision Song Contest table with odds of 11/2 suggesting a 15.3% chance on Saturday Night.
Luxembourg has participated in the Eurovision Song Contest 38 times since its debut at the first contest in 1956. They have won the competition on 5 occasions, coming in 1961, 1965, 1972, 1973 and 1983. However, they have also finished bottom 3 times in 1958, 1968 and 1970. This year marks their return to the competition for the first time in 31 years.
They qualified from the first Semi-Final when Tali sang the song titled “Fighter”. The song is about how all humans suffer and has an upbeat electronic sound to it with Tali certainly an artist with a stage presence about her.
However, following their absence and the song not particularly “standing out” 11/2 could be an interesting bet for bottom place.
Estonia – 14/1
Estonia are another who are tipped to be fighting at the bottom of the Eurovision table with odds of 14/1 suggesting a 6..7% chance of finishing last on Saturday Night.
Estonia has participated in the Eurovision Song Contest 28 times since making its debut in 1994. Their best result in the Eurovision was when they finished top of the pile winning in 2001 with the song '"Everybody" by Tanel Padar, Dave Benton and 2XL,
Since the introduction of the semi-final round in 2004, Estonia has failed to reach the final on ten occasions and has reached the top ten five times. Estonia's total of eleven top ten results is more than any other Baltic country.
In the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest Estonia are represented by 5miinust and Puuluup with the selected song "(Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi". They qualified from the Semi-Final (2) with their version of a rap song not quite to the Eurovision's usual “taste” I’d suggest so 14/1 could be attractive odds.
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*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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