Ahead of the Irish Presidential Election on Friday, the 24th of October, we have previewed Catherine Connolly’s odds of becoming the next President of Ireland.
Ireland’s current President, Michael D. Higgins, was first elected to the role in 2011 before he sought a second term in 2018. He retained office, winning the election with 55.8% of the votes.
The role will change hands in 2025 when Higgins’ second term comes to an end, as an Irish President can’t hold office for more than two terms. This piece breaks down everything you need to know about the candidate, including betting odds, background, policy platform, poll analysis and what could swing the vote.
Who Will Be The Next President Of Ireland?
Next President of Ireland Odds
Next President of Ireland Odds
Candidate | Odds | Chance of Winning |
|---|---|---|
Catherine Connolly | 1/9 | 90% |
Heather Humphries | 11/2 | 15.4% |
Catherine Connolly’s odds have plummeted from double digits in September to an incredibly short 1/9 to become the next President of Ireland after Sinn Féin's September 20 endorsement, Jim Gavin's October 7 withdrawal and recent debates and interviews has straggling back at odds of 11/2.
Who Is Catherine Connolly?
Who Is Catherine Connolly?
Catherine Connolly has been an Independent TD for Galway West since 2016, having left the Labour Party in 2006 after the party denied her wish to contest the Galway West constituency as running mate of Michael D. Higgins.
Catherine has since held several prominent positions in politics, including serving as Leas-Cheann Comhairle (2020-2024) and Mayor of Galway (2004-2005). A barrister, she chaired the Irish Language Committee (2016-2020).
How Did She Secure A Nomination?
How Did She Secure A Nomination?
Announcing her bid on July 11, 2025, she secured 20+ nominations from left allies, launching a campaign on September 22 that united Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Labour, Greens, and People Before Profit.
What Is Her Policy Platform?
What Is Her Policy Platform?
Ahead of polling next Friday, her pitch for the people of Ireland centres around the idea of being a "president for the silenced," drawing from her Claddagh roots and lifelong advocacy.
Connolly has described her vision for the presidency as one of "compassionate diplomacy," championing Irish neutrality against EU militarisation and pledging a presidential visit to Palestine to condemn "genocide."
She backs a united Ireland via referendums, describing one as “inevitable”, and has spoken in favour of extending voting rights to Northerners, and fights for housing, healthcare, and women's rights, echoing her support for same-sex marriage (2015) and Repeal (2018).
A fluent Gaeilgeoir, she says she wants to prioritise the Irish language and rural voices.
Poll Analysis
Poll Analysis: Where Will She Get Votes?
Connolly leads decisively in recent polling, with the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A (October 16, conducted October 12-14) placing her at 38% first preferences, ahead of Humphreys' 20% by 18 points. This marks an increase from her 36% in the Business Post/Red C (October 11, conducted October 2-7), where she led by 11 points over Humphreys' 25%. Earlier, the Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks (October 5) had her at 32%, leading Humphreys' 23% by 9 points.
Key to who becomes the next Irish President will be where the remaining Jim Gavin 5% preferences go (down from 12-15% pre-withdrawal), but simulations project that they will split fairly evenly between Connolly and Humphreys, pushing her to around 60% in the final count among decided voters.
Strong in Galway and Dublin (40%+), she dominates among urban left-leaning voters, youth, and undecideds (potentially capturing 50%+ from the 18%), while leading solidly in the west and midlands.
What Could Swing It?
What Could Swing It?
In her favour, Catherine’s candidacy has certainly “United The Left” when it comes to all major left-wing political parties, including Sinn Féin and Labour and her policy platform, centred on advocacy, should capture their respective voter bases.
What could go against her has been critics highlighting her Euroscepticism, with a particular focus on her comments following Brexit. Elsewhere, she’s been called out for a 2018 trip to Syria, previous comments about German democracy, and previously hiring a convicted staffer.
Irish Presidential Election Tips
Irish Presidential Election Tips
Connolly's progressive edge (neutrality, Palestine) contrasts Humphreys' centrist stability (EU trade, rural dev). Polls give Connolly 36% first prefs to Humphreys' 25%, but transfers favour the Fine Gaeler (60% from Gavin).
Connolly wins urban youth (45%); Humphreys borders (35%). Bookies see Connolly's lead vulnerable to smears—her 1/9 odds imply 90% win, but Humphreys at 11/2 offers upset value if undecideds (27%) swing right.
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