In this post, we are bringing you our Wales vs France prediction for the final fixture of round 2 of the 2026 Six Nations along with expert betting tips and analysis of the top odds for this game.
France will look to make it two wins from two in this season’s Six Nations as the 4/9 title favourites go to Cardiff to take on a Wales side who are now 4/11 with BOYLE Sports to finish bottom of the standings.
The defending champions started their campaign with a hugely impressive 36-14 win over Ireland in Paris, where the hosts raced into a 22-0 half-time lead and didn’t look back as star winger Louis Bielle-Biarrey shone again.
Wales vs France Prediction – 6N 2026
Wales, in contrast, were thrashed 48-7 by England at Twickenham and with Italy upsetting Scotland in Rome, Steve Tandy’s men already look destined to end up with a third successive wooden spoon.
France are 1/250 to claim victory in Cardiff and, with BOYLE Sports’ Early Payout, you would get paid if your team goes 17 points ahead at any stage, no matter what happens after that.
For those looking for longer odds, France to win both halves by 17 points or more @ 5/2 is worth considering. Last season, France beat Wales 43-0 having led 28-0 at half-time, while England scored 29 unanswered first-half points against the Welsh last weekend.
Match Details
Wales vs France Match Details – Six Nations 2026
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff, Wales
Referee: James Doleman (NZR)
How to Watch Wales vs France
This Round 2 clash in the Six Nations 2026 takes place on Sunday, with kick-off scheduled for 3:10pm.
In the UK, coverage will be shown live on BBC One, presented by Gabby Logan with analysis from Sam Warburton, Martin Johnson, Ben Kayser and Alun Wyn Jones, while commentary comes from Andrew Cotter, Danny Care and Jonathan Davies. Pre-match build-up begins at 2:30pm.
In Ireland, the match will be broadcast on RTÉ2, presented by Jacqui Hurley with analysis from Bernard Jackman, Fiona Coghlan and Jamie Heaslip, while commentary will be provided by Hugh Cahill and Jim Hamilton. Coverage also begins at 2:30pm.
Betting Odds
Wales vs France Betting Odds – Six Nations 2026
Result | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Wales | 20/1 | 4.8% |
France | 1/500 | 99.8% |
Draw | 66/1 | 1.5% |
France are overwhelming favourites at 1/500, with Wales priced at 20/1 and the draw available at 66/1, reflecting near-total market confidence in an away victory.
Don’t let a dominant start go unrewarded. With BOYLE Sports’ 17 Points Ahead Early Payout, your rugby bet is settled as a winner the moment your team leads by 17, regardless of the full‑time result. Valid on all pre‑match Rugby Union match‑betting singles and multiples. T&Cs apply.
Total Points Betting
Over 61.5 Points @ 4/5
Under 61.5 Points @ 10/11
Over or Under 61.5 Points? Wales vs France 6N 2026
Handicap Betting
Wales +32 @ 10/11
France -32 @ 10/11
Handicap Draw (+32) @ 18/1
Will France Cover the -32 Handicap? Wales vs France 6N 2026
Tryscorer Odds
Try Scorer Betting
Player | First Try Scorer | Anytime Try |
|---|---|---|
Louis Bielle-Biarrey | 9/2 | 1/4 |
Theo Attissogbe | 8/1 | 8/13 |
Antoine Dupont | 9/1 | 3/4 |
Emilien Gailleton | 10/1 | 5/6 |
Julien Marchand | 10/1 | 5/6 |
Fabien Brau-Boirie | 12/1 | 11/10 |
The market positions Louis Bielle-Biarrey as clear favourite in both the first tryscorer market at 9/2 and the anytime market at 1/4, with Theo Attissogbe and Antoine Dupont next in line.
Wales vs France First Tryscorer Prediction – 6N 2026
Head-to-Head
Wales vs France Head-To-Head Record
Recent Meetings
Date | Result | Venue (Stadium, City) |
|---|---|---|
31 January 2025 | France 43–0 Wales | Stade de France, Saint‑Denis |
10 March 2024 | France 45–24 Wales | Principality Stadium, Cardiff |
18 March 2023 | France 41–28 Wales | Stade de France, Saint‑Denis |
11 March 2022 | France 13–9 Wales | Principality Stadium, Cardiff |
20 March 2021 | France 32–30 Wales | Stade de France, Saint‑Denis |
France have won seven successive matches against Wales since being beaten 20-19 in the 2019 World Cup quarter-finals.
Of those victories, France have passed 40 points in each of the last three games while last season’s 43-0 triumph was the second biggest winning margin in this fixture.
France have won their last three games in Cardiff, although two of those were by just a four-point margin and if you think Wales will at least give their highly-fancied opponents a run for their money, you can get 15/2 for Les Bleus to win by 12 points or fewer.
Historic Head-to-Head Context
Historically, Wales and France have played 105 times. France have 51 wins, Wales have 51 wins, and there have been 3 draws, meaning the all‑time series is completely level.
Form Guides
Team Form Guides
Wales Form Guide
Wales’ defeat to England means they have now won only two of their last 24 Tests — both coming against Japan — and have suffered 12 successive defeats in the Six Nations.
They are 20/1 to come out on top on Sunday but having conceded 248 points and 34 tries in Tandy’s first five games in charge, it seems more a matter of not whether Wales can win, but by how much they can stop France running riot.
They conceded 16 penalties in that match and picked up four yellow cards — equalling a Six Nations record — and they cannot afford a repeat against a free-flowing French team.
You can get 1/3 for any Wales player to be sin-binned — front-rowers Evan Lloyd and Freddie Thomas were shown yellows in this fixture last season — or 6/4 for there to be at least one yellow card in each half.
Alternatively, Wales to get a red card at any stage is 5/1.
France Form Guide
Bielle-Biarrey, last season’s top try-scorer and player of the tournament, got his 2026 campaign up and running with a brace against Ireland as France made the ideal start to their defence.
All signs point to Fabien Galthie’s men enjoying another good day on Sunday, but wounded Wales will be desperate to give their fans something to shout about.
Therefore, if you fancy a narrow away win of between 1-12 points you can get odds of 13/2.
France to win both halves in Cardiff is 1/16 but could still offer decent value seeing how fast Les Bleus came out of the blocks against Ireland and how Wales were swept aside by England.
Betting Tips
Wales vs France Betting Tips – Six Nations 2026
France to Win Both Halves by 17+ Points @ 5/2
France have dominated Wales in several recent Six Nations meetings, but the scale and timing of that dominance fluctuates significantly year to year. Across the last five editions, France have led Wales by 17 points or more at half‑time only once, which occurred in 2025, when they went into the break with a commanding 28–0 advantage.
In the other four matches, the half‑time margins were far narrower:
2024: France led 20–17 (+3)
2023: France led 20–7 (+13)
2022: France led 10–9 (+1)
2021: The sides were level at 17–17
The closest France came to pulling off the 17+ point margin in each half was in 2025 when they led 28-0 at half-time and won the second half 15-0, falling just two poins short of the 17-point margin required.
While France haven’t been able to pull of this feat as of yet, it looks a good value proposition at 5/2 when you consider that they were so close to doing it last year and that this Wales side appears to be at an all-time low while this French outfit is among the best we’ve seen in recent times.
At Least One Yellow Card in Each Half @ 6/4
Wales’ recent disciplinary profile strongly reinforces this angle. Across their last five Tests against Tier 1 opposition, Wales have accumulated 11 yellow cards and 1 red card, averaging over two cards per match. Notably, these sanctions are spread throughout games rather than clustered in single periods:
England vs Wales: 4 yellows (mins 16, 17, 64, 66)
Wales vs South Africa: 2 yellows (45, 54)
Wales vs Australia: 2 yellows (66, 74)
Wales vs Japan: 1 red (40)
Wales vs Argentina: 2 yellows (27, 43)
This pattern demonstrates both early‑game and late‑game indiscipline, with cards appearing in both halves across multiple fixtures.
With Wales now facing a high‑tempo, pressure‑heavy France side that dominated Ireland in Round 1 and previously shut Wales out 43–0 in 2025, the likelihood of repeated defensive stress is high. Given Wales’ combination of structural strain, fatigue under sustained pressure, and a clear recent history of multi‑period card accumulation, backing a card in each half is logically and statistically grounded.
Wales Red Card at Any Stage @ 5/1
Wales’ discipline issues extend beyond frequent yellow cards—there is also recent precedent for a sending off. In their last five matches against Tier 1 nations, they received one red card (Josh Adams, minute 40 vs Japan), alongside 11 yellow cards, with several late‑match cautions suggesting vulnerability under fatigue and scoreboard pressure.
Given their current trajectory – including a 48–7 defeat to England in Round 1 of the 2026 Six Nations and a run of 12 straight Six Nations losses entering this fixture – Wales are likely to spend long stretches defending against superior physicality and tempo. That defensive desperation often correlates with high‑risk tackles, repeat infringements, or cynical interventions near the try line.
Combining Wales’ existing red‑card precedent, their pattern of multiple yellow cards per match, and the possibility of a double‑yellow sending off, the red‑card market looks a rather appealing bet at odds of 5/1.
Louis Bielle-Biarrey Anytime Try Scorer @ 1/4
Louis Bielle-Biarrey continues to thrive on space and early momentum, and his finishing record in the Six Nations makes him the most reliable tryscoring option in this matchup.
The odds here are very much on the short side but it’s just hard to imagine the electric French winger not touching down for a try in this match. This bet could be one for the weekend accumulators.
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*Prices are subject to fluctuation
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