UFC 309 Tips, Picks, Predictions & Preview: Jones vs. Miocic

In this post, we’re bringing you UFC 309 tips and predictions as we preview this highly anticipated night of MMA action with Jon Jones v Stipe Miocic headlining the night.

How To Watch UFC 309

Start Time: The prelims are expected to start at 1 am GMT on Sunday 17 November. The main card is then expected to begin at 3 am, with the cage walks for the main event not expected before 5 am.

What TV Channel? TNT Sport 1, coverage begins at 1.00 am Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, USA

UFC 309 Main Card Odds

Jon Jones v Stipe Miocic Odds

Charles Oliveira v Michael Chandler Odds

Bo Nickal v Paul Craig Odds

Viviane Araújo v Karine Silva Odds

Mauricio Ruffy v James Llontop Odds

UFC 309 Main Card & Preliminary Card

Main Card

Main Event Heavyweight: Alex Jones (c) vs. Ilia Miocic

Lightweight: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

Women’s Flyweight: Viviane Araújo vs. Karine Silva

Catchweight (165lbs): Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop

Preliminary Card

Bantamweight: Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee

Middleweight: Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders

Lightweight: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson

Lightweight: David Onama vs. Roberto Romero

Early Preliminary Card

Heavyweight: Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz

Welterweight: Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

Welterweight: Bassil Hafez vs. Oban Elliot

Women’s Flyweight: Veronica Hardy vs. Edourda Moura

UFC 309 Tips, Picks & Predictions

Jon Jones (c) vs. Stipe Miocic

Tale of the Tape

Form

Jon Jones (37) is the current UFC Heavyweight Champion and was previously the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion from 2011 to 2015 and from 2018 to 2020, as well as the interim UFC Light Heavyweight Champion in 2016.

He is currently ranked #3 in the UFC men's pound-for-pound rankings and is widely regarded as one of the greatest MMA fighters of all time. However, he spent a large part of his recent fighting career inactive, not fighting from the 8th of February 2020 when he defeated Dominick Reyes at UFC 247 to UFC 285 on March 4th 2023 where he beat Ciryl Gane which is his most recent bout.

Stipe Miocic (42) is a former two-time UFC Heavyweight Champion and is currently ranked as the #8 in the UFC Heavyweight rankings. He defended his titles four times during his two title reigns and he holds the record for most wins in heavyweight title fights along with the longest title defence streak in the heavyweight division, at three consecutive defences.

His current record is 20–4, with his most recent bout coming back at UFC 260 vs Francis Ngannou when he lost his Heavyweight Championship after being KO-punched 0.52 seconds into the second round.

Fighting styles

Jones: Wrestling, Muay Thai, Striker | Miocic: Wrestling

Fight Analysis

Ahead of this bout Jon Jones has a well-rounded skill set with 10 of his victories via knockout, 7 by submission and 10 by decision though he is yet to win via KO in his last 4 bouts since UFC 232 when he knocked out Alexander Gustafsson in December 2018. It’s clear that Jones is an adaptable fighter and has been described as "one of the most dynamic, innovative, and constantly evolving fighters in the history of MMA with a variety of kicks in his arsenal and a strong ground game.

Stipe on the other hand has a less varied skill set with 14 of his 24 victories coming via knockout, 5 by decision and his sole submission victory came from his opponent tapping due to strikes. He does have some wrestling skills though after showcasing a guillotine choke against Alistair Overeem or his takedown of Francis Ngannou. Given his age, it’s hard to see him winning.

Prediction: Jon Jones By KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 6/5

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

Tale of the Tape

Form

Charles Oliveira (35) is a former UFC Lightweight Champion and is currently ranked #2 in the UFC Lightweight rankings. Oliveria is a fourth-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a black prajied in Muay Thai and has been active since 2008 currently holding a professional MMA record of 34–10 (1).

Michael Chandler (38) is a three-time Bellator Lightweight Champion and is currently ranked #7 in the UFC Lightweight division, he is returning to the octagon following a hiatus with his last fight coming against Dustin Poirier at UFC 281 where he lost by submission 2 minutes into the third round.

Fighting styles

Oliveria: Brazilian Jiu Jitsu | Chandler: Striker

Fight Analysis

These fighters have history, at UFC 262 they faced off for the first time in May 2021 where Oliveria won 19 seconds into the second round via TKO but his most recent bout was a split decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300 last April. Of his 34 victories 10 have been by KO, 21 by submission and 3 by decision.

Chandler is returning to the octagon for the first time since UFC 281 when he lost to Dustin Poirier via submission. Of his 23 wins, he has 11 by KO, 7 by submission and 5 by decision. Given he’s older and has been less active recently, the early finish might be his best chance of success.

Prediction: Charles Oliveira By KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 11/5

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