Italy are on course for their best Six Nations in more than a decade and could even venture into uncharted territory if results go their way this weekend, while Wales are destined for a third successive wooden spoon.
The Azzurri head to Cardiff lying fourth in the standings with nine points following famous wins over Scotland and England.
Italy have only finished fourth twice before, in 2007 and 2013, but with a three-point lead over fifth-placed England, who go to leaders France on ‘Super Saturday’, Gonzalo Quesada’s men have a great chance to at least equal their best showing.
They even have a very slim chance of finishing in the top three for the first time, but their focus will first and foremost be on claiming victory at the Principality Stadium.
Wales have shown signs of improvement in recent matches, though, and this could well be another closely-fought encounter between these two teams.
We’re backing Italy to edge it, though, with our opening Wales vs Italy prediction being an Italy win with under 46.5 points in the match @ 21/10.
Betting Odds
Wales vs Italy Betting Odds – 2026 Six Nations
Result | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Wales | 7/5 | 41.7% |
Draw | 22/1 | 4.3% |
Italy | 4/7 | 63.6% |
Italy head to Cardiff as clear favourites at 4/7, with Wales available at 7/5 to claim a rare victory. The draw is a big price at 22/1.
Handicap Betting
Wales +4 @ Evens
Italy -4 @ Evens
Handicap Draw (+4) @ 18/1
Total Points Betting
Over 45.5 @ 4/5
Under 45.5 @ 10/11
Try Scorer Odds
Try Scorer Betting
Player | First Try | Anytime |
|---|---|---|
Louis Lynagh | 7/1 | Evens |
Monty Ioane | 9/1 | 13/10 |
Josh Adams | 12/1 | 9/5 |
Lorenzo Pani | 12/1 | 9/5 |
Louis Rees-Zammit | 12/1 | 9/5 |
Rhys Carre | 12/1 | 9/5 |
Alessandro Fusco | 14/1 | 11/5 |
Louis Lynagh is the favourite for the first try market at 7/1, with Monty Ioane next best at 9/1. In the anytime try scorer market, Lynagh leads the way at Evens, ahead of Ioane at 13/10 and a cluster of players at 9/5.
Team News
Team News
Wales Team News
Starting XV
15. Louis Rees-Zammit, 14. Ellis Mee, 13. Eddie James, 12. Joe Hawkins, 11. Josh Adams, 10. Dan Edwards, 9. Tomos Williams; 1. Rhys Carre, 2. Dewi Lake (c), 3. Tomas Francis, 4. Dafydd Jenkins, 5. Ben Carter, 6. Alex Mann, 7. James Botham, 8. Aaron Wainwright.
Replacements
16. Ryan Elias, 17. Gareth Smith, 18. Archie Griffin, 19. Adam Beard, 20. Toby Cracknell, 21. Kieran Hardy, 22. Jarrod Evans, 23. Blair Murray.
Wales head coach Steve Tandy has named an unchanged starting XV for the first time in his tenure, with number eight Aaron Wainwright overcoming a leg injury to start. The only change to the matchday squad sees Blair Murray join the replacements bench, while fly-half Sam Costelow remains sidelined with an ankle issue.
Italy Team News
Italy Starting XV
15. Lorenzo Pani, 14. Louis Lynagh, 13. Juan Ignacio Brex, 12. Tommaso Menoncello, 11. Monty Ioane, 10. Paolo Garbisi, 9. Alessandro Fusco; 1. Danilo Fischetti, 2. Giacomo Nicotera, 3. Muhamed Hasa, 4. Niccolo Cannone, 5. Federico Ruzza, 6. Sebastian Negri, 7. Michele Lamaro (c), 8. Lorenzo Cannone.
Replacements
16. Gianmarco Di Bartolomeo, 17. Mirco Spagnolo, 18. Giosue Zilocchi, 19. Riccardo Favretto, 20. David Odiase, 21. Stephen Varney, 22. Leonardo Marin, 23. Tommaso Allan.
Italy have made three tactical shifts to their lineup, bringing in scrum-half Alessandro Fusco, prop Muhamed Hasa, and lock Federico Ruzza to face the Welsh in Cardiff.
How to Watch
How To Watch Wales vs Italy
The Six Nations round 5 match is scheduled to begin at 16:40 (GMT) on Saturday and will be shown live on BBC One.
Head-to-Head
Wales vs Italy Head-To-Head Record
Wales won 16 successive matches against Italy between 2008 and 2021 but it has been the Azzurri who have been top dogs in recent years.
They head to the UK chasing a fourth win in five meetings with the Welsh, and a third successive triumph in Cardiff.
All three of those Italian wins have been close affairs - 22-21, 24-21 and 22-15 - and you can expect a similar story this weekend.
Looking at the Wales vs Italy odds, an Italian victory margin of between 1-12 points is 6/4, while you can get Evens for the visitors to be leading at half-time and full-time.
Form Guides
Form Guides
Wales Form Guide
Wales’ four successive defeats in this season’s Six Nations means they have now lost 25 of their last 27 Tests, with their only wins coming against Japan.
They have also suffered 15 successive Six Nations defeats since beating Italy in 2023 and, with a five-point gap to second-bottom England, the wooden spoon looks certain to remain in Cardiff.
However, Steve Tandy’s side no longer appear to be the cannon fodder they were at the start of the competition and will be eager to finish on a high.
They were swept aside by England (48-7) and France (54-12) in their opening two games but were then narrowly beaten 26-23 at home by Scotland before a battling 27-17 loss to Ireland in Dublin.
Wales are 1/100 to end up bottom of the standings but you can get odds of 11/5 for them to beat Italy with a winning margin of 1-12 points.
Italy Form Guide
Italy, the Six Nations’ poor relations for so many years, continue to cut the gap on Europe’s top teams and now have the chance to win three matches in the tournament for the first time.
They stunned Scotland at home in their opening fixture before narrowly losing to Ireland in the second round.
The Azzurri were also beaten 33-8 in France after conceding two late tries but caused one of the Six Nations’ biggest upsets last time out with a 23-18 win over England in Rome.
That was Italy’s first victory over the former World Cup winners and sets them up perfectly for the trip to Wales.
Italy’s last three wins over Wales have all come after leading at half-time and you can get Evens for the same to happen on Saturday afternoon, which completes our Wales vs Italy betting tips.
Betting Tips
Wales vs Italy Betting Tips – Six Nations 2026
Italy to win & under 45.5 points @ 9/4
Italy leading at half-time and full-time @ Evens
Bet on Six Nations Odds at BOYLE Sports
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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