Rugby union enters a brand new era in 2026 with the inaugural Nations Championship , a global tournament that pits the Six Nations sides against the best of the southern hemisphere across the July and November Test windows.
The competition brings together twelve teams in two groups of six. The Six Nations sides England , France , Ireland , Italy , Scotland and Wales form the European group. The Rugby Championship quartet of South Africa , New Zealand , Australia and Argentina , plus invited sides Japan and Fiji , make up the Rest of the World group.
Each side plays all six teams from the opposing group across the two windows before the showpiece Finals Weekend at Allianz Stadium , Twickenham , from 27 to 29 November, where the top-ranked team in each group meets in the grand final to be crowned the first-ever Nations Championship winners.
Here, BOYLE Sports looks at the leading contenders to lift the trophy.
Outright Odds
2026 Nations Championship Outright Odds
Team | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
South Africa | 5/2 | 28.6% |
France | 7/2 | 22.2% |
New Zealand | 9/2 | 18.2% |
England | 9/2 | 18.2% |
Ireland | 11/2 | 15.4% |
Argentina | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Australia | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Scotland | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Wales | 100/1 | 1.0% |
Italy | 100/1 | 1.0% |
Fiji | 150/1 | 0.7% |
Japan | 250/1 | 0.4% |
Favourites
2026 Nations Championship Favourites
South Africa
South Africa
The world champion Springboks head the market as the team to beat in the inaugural Nations Championship . As the top-ranked side in the world, South Africa carry the pedigree, the power game and the strength in depth to go all the way.
Their autumn 2025 form underlined that status, with South Africa getting the better of northern hemisphere opposition including France . A kind run through the group stage could see them seeded for the grand final on home soil at Twickenham .
The format also hands the Springboks an early opportunity, with the European sides travelling south in July before the Rest of the World group head north in November. That gives Rassie Erasmus the chance to bank points at home in the opening window, and as back-to-back World Cup winners, South Africa have repeatedly shown they can deliver when the stakes are at their highest.
France
France
Reigning Six Nations champions France sit just behind the Springboks in the betting and boast arguably the most dangerous attack in world rugby.
With Antoine Dupont pulling the strings and a record-breaking points tally to their name in the last Six Nations , Les Bleus have the firepower to trouble anyone. The question marks come from their record on southern hemisphere soil during the July window, where the strength of the squad they travel with could prove decisive.
Fabien Galthié faces selection questions of his own, with a number of senior names having fallen out of the picture and the depth of the squad he sends south in July likely to shape the campaign. If Les Bleus travel at full strength, they have more than enough talent to top the European group and reach the showpiece final on 29 November.
New Zealand
New Zealand
The All Blacks are rated joint third favourites and, as one of the founding nations of the competition, will be desperate to stamp their authority on rugby’s newest title.
A proven force home and away, New Zealand got the better of France more than once across 2025 and will fancy their chances of topping the Rest of the World group ahead of the Springboks .
Scott Robertson 's side host their northern hemisphere opponents in July before making the trip to Europe in November, and few teams are more ruthless on home soil. Topping the Rest of the World group would set up a final against the leading European nation, and the All Blacks will fancy themselves in a one-off showdown at Twickenham .
England
England
Sharing third spot in the market are England , who will have home advantage for the Finals Weekend at Twickenham .
Steve Borthwick ’s side carry genuine threat in the forward exchanges, and if they can navigate a demanding November schedule against the southern hemisphere’s heavyweights, a home final is well within reach.
Home advantage could prove significant. England 's November pool matches against Australia , Japan and New Zealand are all scheduled for Allianz Stadium , the same venue that stages the Finals Weekend. A strong autumn in front of their own supporters would put Steve Borthwick 's men in prime position to reach the final without ever leaving London.
Ireland
Ireland
Perennial contenders Ireland complete the list of leading fancies. Consistently among the top sides in the world rankings in recent seasons, Ireland have the system and the squad to make a deep run.
Topping a competitive European group will be no easy task, but few teams are better equipped to grind out the results needed to reach a maiden Nations Championship final.
The European group is unforgiving, with France and England also chasing top spot, so Ireland will know that every result across the July and November windows carries weight. Should they come through it, Ireland have the experience and the big game temperament to trouble whichever southern hemisphere side awaits in the final.
Outsiders
The Rest of the Field
Beyond the front five, Argentina at 12/1 and Australia at 14/1 head the outsiders and cannot be discounted on their day, while Scotland at 25/1 will look to spring a surprise against the southern hemisphere heavyweights.
Further down the market, Wales and Italy are both available at 100/1, with invited sides Fiji at 150/1 and Japan at 250/1 the rank outsiders for rugby’s newest title.
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Bill is as passionate about Irish football as they come, with an agonising longing to see his country grace a World Cup stage. A League of Ireland devotee and lifelong Man United fan, he knows better than most what sporting heartbreak feels like, and brings that perspective to the BOYLE Sports Blog. With roots in greyhound racing and a curiosity spanning politics, snooker, WWE and beyond, there is rarely a sporting conversation he cannot add to.
