The 23/24 Premier League is over with all 3 of the newly promoted sides relegated Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United), the first time this happened since the 1997–98 season.
The gulf in class between those toward the top of the Premier League and those from the second tier is very much growing, those 3 relegated sides had a combined total of 66 points. Nottingham Forest avoided relegation with 32 points (including a 4-point deduction), a record low for a team to do so
Thus, we’ve decided to look at the relegation race for the 24/25 season, will we see a repeat with the newly promoted sides (Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton) struggling or will somebody else have a poor season? Only time will tell
Premier League 2024/25 Relegation Odds
Team | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Leicester | 4/9 | 69.2% |
Ipswich | 20/23 | 53.5% |
Everton | 20/21 | 51.2% |
Southampton | 13/8 | 38.1% |
Nottingham Forest | 15/8 | 34.8% |
Wolves | 7/2 | 22.2% |
Brentford | 4/1 | 20% |
Fulham | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Premier League 2024/25 Relegation Odds
Leicester -2/5
Leicester are already an odds-on favourite to be relegated in the 2024/25 Premier League season at odds of 4/9 suggesting a 69.2% chance that their return to the elite level of English Football will be short-lived.
Leicester were expected to be the leading lights in the 23/24 Championship season, and they duly delivered topping the table with an impressive 97-point total from their 46 matches to come 1 point ahead of 2nd-placed Ipswich.
It’s been a wild ride for the club in recent seasons with highs and lows a plenty from avoiding relegation to the Championship by the skin of their teeth in the 14/15 season to sensationally winning the Premier League season in 15/16. The story doesn’t end there though despite their 20/21 FA Cup success they were relegated to the Championship after finishing 18th in the 22/23 season
However, despite retaining a strong core from their last Premier League campaign (Ndidi, Dewsbury Hall, Vardy and co) and with a transfer window still ahead of them, unless they have an exceptional window they’re likely to have a “poorer” squad (at least on paper) than their last Premier League campaign especially with maybe having to sell due to financial issues.
Time will tell if they get relegated but there is plenty of quality in the squad, so I don’t think they’re a backable prospect to be relegated at 2/5.
Ipswich - 20/23
Ipswich are also an odds-on favourite to be relegated in the 2024/25 Premier League season at odds of 20/23 suggesting a 53.5.% chance that they will return to the Championship next season.
“The Tractor Boys” have been the revelation of British Football for the last two seasons since Kieran McKenna was appointed in late 2021. The positive signs were evident very quickly despite an 11th-place finish in League 1 to end the season. However, McKenna then guided them to back-to-back promotions following a 2nd finish in the 22/23 League 1 season and a 2nd finish in the 23/24 Championship season with a staggering 96-point total making them the first side since Southampton to achieve back-to-back promotions from League One to the Premier League.
Such has been their rise under McKenna that he’s been linked with huge roles at Brighton, Manchester United and Chelsea but have received a huge boost in securing him on a new contract. However, the Ipswich issue is they’re very much considered a League 1 squad who overachieved in overcoming the financial disparity in the Championship, but that will prove an even harder task in the Premier League and several shrewd signings will be needed if they to stand a chance of safety.
Likely to be toward the bottom of the table but under McKenna they’ve shown a capacity to overachieve so at 4/5 I wouldn’t be backing them to be relegated.
Everton - 20/21
Everton are the next most fancied side to be relegated in the 24/25 season at odds of 20/21 suggesting a 51.2% chance of the club being relegated from the Premier League for the first time.
Due to off-the-field financial difficulties, Everton were initially deducted 10 points in the league but following appeals it was reduced to 6 points. The club were found guilty of a further financial breach in April and had another 2 points deducted from their total.
However, due to a brilliant run of form under mastermind Sean Dyche in the final few weeks of the season with 5 victories, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their final 8 league games to avoid relegation and finish 15th had it not been for deductions they’d have finished 12th.
The issue with Everton is the summer transfer window, the club could lose key assets like Branthwaite, Gueye and Calvert-Lewin due to their financial issues Dyche may be handed a shoestring budget to replace those assets.
Even with financial issues, I think Dyche is the perfect manager to keep them up again under the same scenario
Southampton - 13/8
Southampton are seen as a 13/8 shot to be relegated next season suggesting a 38.1% chance of relegation.
The Saints returned to the Championship for last season with a 25-point total ending their stay in the top tier since their 11/12 where they were promoted to the league under Nigel Adkins finishing 2nd. However, following a fourth finish on 87 points they navigated their return to the Premier League.
Under Russell Martin, they play an attractive brand of football and have some solid talent at their disposal like goal-scorer Adam Armstrong, Irishman Will Smallbone and rock at-the-back Taylor Harwood-Bellis.
However, with the step up in quality to the Premier League, a strong transfer window is needed especially if they want to attempt to continue their style of play into the top tier (a task Burnley found out all too well is easier said than done). At 6/4 they’re a good value bet to be relegated straight back down.
Nottingham Forest -15/8
Forest are priced at 15/8 to be relegated (a 34.8% chance) to be relegated next season.
Having been promoted as playoff victory in the 21/22 season, curiously ahead of the 22/23 season they effectively signed a whole new squad of players for the bones of £200 million. The squad churn may have been considerable, but they did stay up with a 16th finish.
Following another mad transfer window ahead of the 23/24 season and further managerial upheaval with the departure of Steve Cooper and the incoming Nuno Espírito Santo, they again secured safety this time with a 17th finish.
For me, the club is run unsustainably with the amount of squad churn every season not being justified in their league performances. If they continue that cycle in the summer I can see them being undone next season and relegated even if a more measured approach they have some good players to work with.
Others
Wolves had a poor close to their season and are 7/2 to fall further next season, but right now I think that is unlikely.
Brentford struggled last season and are seen as a 4/1 shout to be relegated followed by Fulham at 5/1.
Interestingly, in anticipation of potential points deductions, Man City despite their four Premier League titles in a row are 20/1 to be relegated.
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