Portugal v Croatia Tips, Prediction & Odds – Nations League

We have Portugal v Croatia tips for you plus a prediction and a breakdown of the betting odds ahead of this Thursday’s UEFA Nations League fixture.

Portugal are coming off their Quarter-Final elimination at Euro 2024 to France 3-5 on Penalties which had many questioning Head Coach Martinez for their general performance levels.

Croatia were dumped out of Euro 2024 at the Group Stage after being unable to see off the challenge of Spain and Italy and earning only 2 points from their games including a 2-2 draw with Albania.

Portugal v Croatia Match Info

When is Portugal v Croatia?

Portugal v Croatia will take place on Thursday, September 5th at 7.45 pm.

Where is Portugal v Croatia Being Played?

This game will be played at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon, Portugal.

Portugal v Croatia Odds

Portugal are 1/2 favourites ahead of this game, Croatia are priced at 9/2, and the draw is currently 16/5.

Handicap Betting

Portugal: -1 @ 6/4

Croatia: +1 @ 6/4

Handicap Draw: -1 @ 5/2

Portugal v Croatia Preview

Portugal’s Form

Roberto Martinez has managed Portugal since the 9th of January 2023 replacing Fernando Santos. In that time he has guided them to fifteen wins, one draw and four defeats. That works out to a win rate of 75%.

In recent times, his insistence to persist with an ageing Cristiano Ronaldo (39) at Euro 2024 garnered plenty of attention with people questioning his ability to make the big calls required as they were knocked out at the quarter-final stage by France on penalties.

The Portuguese (on paper at least) have one of the strongest squads in international football with superstar names along with promising ‘stars of the future’ present across almost every possible position. The major absentee from their Euro 2024 squad is defensive stalworth Pepe following his retirement at 41. With no indications that their legendary number 7 is ready to retire, the Ronaldo “conundrum” will remain an issue at least for the foreseeable future.

Portugal have a very good record against the Croats and will well fancy themselves for this game. However, I’d argue that they’re arguably too short at a price of 1/2 to win this game.

Portugal’s Last Five Results

Portugal 0-0 France (3-5 Penalties) | July 5th | Draw

Portugal 0-0 Slovenia (3-0 Penalties) | July 1st | Draw

Georgia 2-0 Portugal | June 26th | Loss

Turkey 0-3 Portugal | June 22nd | Win

Portugal 2-1 Czechia | June 18th | Win

2 Wins, 2 Draws and 1 Loss

Croatia’s Form 

Zlatko Dalić has been in charge of Croatia since 2017 and is widely regarded as the greatest coach in the history of their team due to the country’s performances at multiple World Cups under his guidance. Those performances include a final appearance in 2018 and a third-place finish in 2022. Dalic’s overall record is 43 wins from 87 games which works out to a 52.63% win rate including 23 draws and 21 defeats.

Croatia, despite its modest population size of roughly 3.8 million, have consistently produced top-class and even on occasion world-class footballers. Although the likes of Luka Modric (38) and Ivan Perisic (35) are getting on there is a generation of footballers coming through too with talents such as Luka Sucic (21) and Igor Matanović (21).

They may have been knocked out of Euro 2024 early, but they have the quality to hurt any side of their day.

Croatia’s Last Five Results

Croatia 1-1 Italy | June 24th | Draw

Croatia 2-2 Albania | June 19th | Draw

Spain 3-0 Croatia | June 15th | Loss

Portugal 1-2 Croatia | June 8th | Win

Croatia 3-0 North Macedonia | June 3rd | Win

2 Wins, 2 Draws and 1 Loss

Portugal v Croatia Predicted Lineups

Portugal Predicted Starting XI (4-2-3-1)

GK: Costa

RB: Cancelo, CB: Dias, CB: Inácio, LB: Mendes

CM: Vitinha, CM: Palhinha

RW: Jota, AM: Fernandes, LW: Leao

CF: Ronaldo

Croatia Predicted Starting XI (4-3-3)

GK: Livakovic

RB: Pongacic, CB: Sutalo, CB: Caleta-Car, LB: Gvardiol

RM: Modric, CM: Pasalic, LM: Kovacic

RW: Sucic, CF: Budimir, LW: Kramaric

Portugal v Croatia Head-To-Head Results & Stats

All-Time Head-To-Head Record

Portugal wins: 6

Croatia wins: 1

Draws: 1

Head-To-Head Last Five Results

Portugal 1-2 Croatia | Friendly | June 8th, 2024

Croatia 2-3 Portugal | Nations League | November 17th, 2020

Portugal 4-1 Croatia | Nations League | September 5th, 2020

Portugal 1-1 Croatia | Friendly | September 6th, 2018

Croatia 0-1 Portugal | Euro 2016 | June 25th, 2016

Key Players To Watch

Cristiano Ronaldo – Portugal

Despite receiving plenty of backlash about his “decline” especially during Euro 2024 and his impact on the team, Ronaldo remains steadfast in his belief in his abilities and he has no plans to retire yet at 39.

The Portugal legend may not be the player he once was, but he remains one of the most prolific players in world football and will be out to set the record straight after not scoring at Euro 2024.

He is off to a strong season on the club front with 2 goals and an assist to his tally from his opening two matches in Saudi Arabia. Admittedly, the standard isn’t that of the top leagues in Europe but it is worth noting that he is still finding the back of the net.

Mateo Kovacic – Croatia

While Modric will receive the bulk of the attention I believe Man City midfielder Kovačić is far more critical to Croatia’s performance. So why is that? It’s because Kovacic allows Modric to play his passing game and that’s thanks to Kovacic providing the legs and engine in the middle of the park.

Thus he is likely to be the main passing and carrying link for Modric and will allow Modric to play a ‘free’ role with fewer defensive responsibilities.

Portugal v Croatia Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: Portugal 3-1 Croatia

Portugal are a strong side and a few underwhelming performances at Euro 2024 doesn’t change that.

Croatia are a consistent entity on the International stage although they remain reliant on the likes of Modric who are getting on in years. They still have quality from top to toe in their squad who will need to “step up” more in the coming years.

Portugal are heavy favourites for this game and while I expect them to win I think the odds are far too heavily weighted for them to win for my liking.

Best Bet: BTTS + Portugal Win @ 5/2

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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