The question of who will serve as Taoiseach after the next Irish General Election is one of the most genuinely open markets in Irish political history. For the first time, the favourite is not a serving Taoiseach or a leader of either of the two traditional governing parties. Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin heads the market at 7/2, a reflection of her party's poll recovery and the scale of public appetite for change that has built across the current Dáil term.

The complicating factor is coalition arithmetic. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have maintained their position that they will not enter government with Sinn Féin . If that holds, McDonald could lead the largest party in the Dáil and still find herself on the opposition benches. The market is pricing in the real possibility that it does not hold — and that the next Taoiseach comes from an unexpected direction.

Here is how the Taoiseach market looks ahead of the next election, which must be held no later than December 2029.

Next Taoiseach Odds

Next Taoiseach Odds

Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.

Next Taoiseach Favourites

Next Taoiseach Favourites

Mary Lou McDonald

Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin) – EVS

Mary Lou McDonald odds of EVS suggest she has a 50% chance of becoming the first Taoiseach .

The Dublin Central TD has led Sinn Féin since 2018, steering the party to its best-ever result in 2020 and surviving the disappointment of 2024 with her leadership intact. She remains one of the most recognisable and effective opposition voices in Leinster House , and with her party back at the top of the polls at around 22%, the path to the Taoiseach's office is there — if the numbers allow.

That remains the central caveat. The cordon sanitaire built by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael has held through two elections. If it holds again, McDonald would need a left-wing majority in the Dáil alongside Labour , the Social Democrats , and People Before Profit to reach 88 seats. Current projections do not make that straightforward. Her 7/2 reflects the possibility, not the probability.

Mary Lou McDonald

Jack Chambers

Jim O'Callaghan (Fianna Fáil) – 5/1

Jim O'Callaghan at odds of 5/1 suggest a 16.7% chance he's the next Taoiseach

The Dublin Bay South TD is among the more notable prices in the market. Born in 1968, a Senior Counsel by background, he has served as Minister for Justice since January 2025 and is widely viewed as the most plausible successor to Micheál Martin as Fianna Fáil leader. He pairs governing experience with a profile the party would look to in repositioning itself against the combined pressure of Sinn Féin and the growing Social Democrats .

His route to the Taoiseach's office runs through a Fianna Fáil leadership change before the next election and a Fianna Fáil -led coalition on the other side of it. The 5/1 indicates the market regards both as plausible.

Jim O'Callaghan

Simon Harris

Simon Harris (Fine Gael) – 6/1

Simon Harris is priced at 9/2 to be Taoiseach after the next general election, implying an 18% chance he's elected to the position.

The incumbent Taoiseach holds office under the rotation arrangement agreed with Fianna Fáil after the 2024 election, having taken over from Micheál Martin as the second half of the term began. At 38, he is the youngest person ever to hold the office, and he enters the next cycle with the advantage of incumbency and a recognisable national profile.

The challenge is that Fine Gael are polling around 17%, their weakest sustained position since the early 2000s. A third-place finish in the most seats market would make Harris a very difficult sell as Taoiseach . His 6/1 price is essentially pricing the scenario where Fine Gael recovers sufficiently to demand the top job in a renewed coalition.

Simon Harris

Holly Cairns

Holly Cairns (Social Democrats) – 9/1

Odds of 9/1 suggests that Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns has a 10% chance of becoming the next Taoiseach .

The Cork South-West TD is the rank outsider of the serious names. At 36 she's the youngest leader in the Dáil , heading the fastest-growing party in the country after the Social Democrats more than doubled to 11 seats in 2024 and took a twelfth in the Dublin Central by-election.

Her likeliest path is not as the biggest party but as the agreed leader of a broad left bloc. With the Social Democrats near 11% in the polls and Sinn Féin 's left credentials under fire from Labour and the Greens , Cairns has cast herself as the transfer-friendly anchor of an alternative to a Fianna Fáil / Fine Gael government. For the 9/1 to land, that bloc has to win a majority and pick her as Taoiseach over bigger partners.

Holly Cairns

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill (Fine Gael) – 9/1

Odds of 9/1 suggest that Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill also has a 10% chance of becoming the next Taoiseach .

The Dún Laoghaire TD has risen fast. First elected in 2020, she was handed the Health brief in January 2025, one of the toughest jobs in government, and has built a reputation as a determined reformer willing to face down vested interests. At 45 she is increasingly floated as a future Fine Gael leader from the party's urban, liberal wing.

Her path runs through a Fine Gael leadership contest and then a Fine Gael -led government after the next election. Both are live possibilities, but she would have to succeed Simon Harris as leader and then emerge as the senior partner in coalition rather than the junior one. For the 9/1 to land, she has to win the party first and the arithmetic second.

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill

Pearse Doherty

Pearse Doherty (Sinn Féin) – 9/1

Sinn Féin deputy leader Pearse Doherty is another priced at 9/1 to become the next Taoiseach .

The Donegal TD is one of the best-known figures in the Dáil . A TD since 2010 and the party's finance spokesperson throughout, he has fronted Sinn Féin 's economic message for over a decade and serves as deputy to Mary Lou McDonald . At 48 he is the obvious heir apparent should the leadership change before the next election.

His path to Taoiseach depends on two things falling into place: succeeding McDonald at the top of the party, and Sinn Féin leading the next government rather than sitting in opposition again. The party remains the largest in many polls, so the second is far from fanciful, but a left coalition still has to clear a majority and Sinn Féin has yet to prove it can find willing partners. For the 9/1 to land, the leadership question and the arithmetic both have to break his way.

Pearse Doherty

Outsiders

The Wider Market

Jack Chambers at 12/1 heads the next tier. The young Fianna Fáil deputy leader, who has held senior cabinet briefs, represents the renewal option should the party look beyond Micheál Martin before the next election.

Michelle O'Neill at 18/1 is the unusual name on the board. As Sinn Féin vice president and First Minister of Northern Ireland she sits at the top of the party's northern operation, but she is not a TD, so any route to Taoiseach would require a move south and a leadership transition behind Mary Lou McDonald . That long shot is reflected in the price.

Dara Calleary , Daragh O'Brien and Micheál Martin are all at 20/1. Calleary is the trusted senior Fianna Fáil figure whose moment may yet come. O'Brien , the former Housing Minister, offers another version of Fianna Fáil continuity. Martin himself cannot be entirely dismissed, having confounded those who wrote him off before, and if Fianna Fáil again emerge as the largest party, the faithful may want him to lead them into government one more time.

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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