Wondering what the Galway West Irish By-Election odds are? Well then, wonder no longer, as we have you covered with all the latest odds for this constituency.
We also break down everything you need to know about the constituency, including the number of seats available, previous election results and candidate track records.
Odds
Galway West By-Election Odds
Candidate | Party | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
Noel Thomas | Independent Ireland | EVS | 50% |
Sean Kyne | Fine Gael | 9/4 | 30.8% |
Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich | Social Democrats | 4/1 | 16.7% |
Thomas Welby | Independent | 9/1 | 10% |
Helen Ogbu | Labour | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Cillian Keane | Fianna Fail | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Mark Lohan | Sinn Fein | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Mike Cubbard | Independent | 33/1 | 2.9% |
Niall Murphy | Green Party | 100/1 | 1% |
Orla Nugent | Aontu | 100/1 | 1% |
Sheila Garrity | Independent | 200/1 | 0% |
AJ Cahill | The Irish People | 500/1 | 0.5% |
Denman Rooke | People Before Profit | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Patrick Feeney | Independent | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Doran McMahon | Irish Freedom | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.
Favourites
Galway West's Favourites For Election
Noel Thomas
Noel Thomas (Independent Ireland) - Galway West Favourite For Election
The favourite to be elected in Galway West is Noel Thomas ( Independent Ireland ) at odds of EVS Those odds imply that he has a 50% chance of being elected in this constituency.
Noel Thomas is a former Fianna Fáil councillor who topped the poll for Connemara South in the 2024 local elections before finishing sixth in Galway West at the general election. He joined Independent Ireland after parting ways with Fianna Fáil following controversy around comments he made in relation to anti-immigration sentiments.
His strong base in the Connemara area makes him a competitive figure in the west of the constituency, and he has maintained a high-visibility campaign on issues such as fuel prices and the cost of living.
Sean Kyne
Sean Kyne (Fine Gael)
According to the latest betting odds, Sean Kyne ( Fine Gael ) is the second most likely candidate to earn a seat in Galway West at odds of 9/4 . These odds suggest that he has a 30.8% chance of winning a seat in this constituency.
Sean Kyne is a Fine Gael Senator and the most experienced candidate in the field, having contested the last four general elections in Galway West with varying degrees of success. He lost his seat in 2020 before returning to the Seanad .
He is stressing his long-term involvement in politics and his work on major infrastructural projects in the constituency as the key plank of his campaign. As the most high-profile government candidate, he is the strongest hope for the coalition parties.
Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich
Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich (Social Democrats)
Next up in the Galway West 2026 By-Election odds is Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich ( Social Democrats ), who has been given odds of 4/1 to win a Dáil seat. Those odds imply she has a 16.7% chance of election.
Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich is a native Irish speaker from Leitir Moir in the Galway Gaeltacht and a prominent figure in Social Democrats' politics in the west. She has campaigned on housing, healthcare, and Irish language rights and is a central figure in the Tonn na Cle vote left, transfer left pact.
Her Gaeltacht base and strong transfer profile make her a significant contender in the later stages of the count.
Thomas Wleby
Thomas Welby (Independent)
Independent candidate Thomas Welby is priced at 9/1 to take the seat in Galway West . Those odds imply a 10% chance of election.
Thomas Welby is a Galway County Councillor based in Oughterard who is running as an independent with a local, community-focused platform. He has polled at 6% in recent constituency surveys and is notably transfer-friendly, with 14% of voters indicating he would be their second preference.
His ability to harvest votes from across the field in later counts makes him a candidate to watch as the count progresses.
Helen Ogbu
Helen Ogbu (Labour)
Labour's Helen Ogbu has been given odds of 10/1 to win the Galway West by-election seat, implying a 9% chance of election.
Helen Ogbu is a Labour councillor who has emerged as one of the surprise performers in this contest, polling at 12% in the most recent constituency survey well above Labour 's national standing. She is the preferred candidate among 18 to 24-year-olds and is the most prominent left candidate in the field.
She is part of the Tonn na Cle transfer pact, and her strong second preference ratings suggest she could benefit significantly as the count develops.
Mark Lohan
Mark Lohan (Sinn Féin)
Sinn Féin 's Mark Lohan has been given odds of 25/1 to win the Galway West by-election seat, implying a 4% chance of election.
Mark Lohan is a former Galway City Councillor and trade union official. He serves as the Galway West branch chairperson for Sinn Féin and has a background in political activism stretching back to his time as an undocumented worker in Boston .
Despite being selected on the back of Mairead Farrell 's poll-topping 2024 performance, Sinn Fein are polling well below expectations in this contest, and Lohan faces a difficult path to the seat.
Seat Breakdown
Galway West Breakdown
Number of Seats
There is 1 seat up for grabs in Galway West .
Why Is There a Vacancy?
The vacancy was created by the election of independent TD Catherine Connolly as President of Ireland on 25 October 2025. Connolly had held a seat in Galway West and topped the poll in the 2024 General Election. Under the Irish Constitution, a member of the Oireachtas elected as President is deemed to have vacated their seat.
2024 Galway West General Election Results
Candidate | Party | FPV |
|---|---|---|
Mairead Farrell | Sinn Fein | 17.5% |
Catherine Connolly | Independent | 14.9% |
Hildegarde Naughton | Fine Gael | 13.4% |
John Connolly | Fianna Fail | 11.5% |
Noel Grealish | Independent | 11.1% |
Tips
Galway West Irish By-Election Tips
With 17 candidates in the field, the Galway West by-election, Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland is the BOYLE Sport market leader at EVS, buoyed by his strong Connemara base and high-visibility campaigning on cost-of-living issues.
However, Sean Kyne of Fine Gael is only a fraction behind at 9/4 and leads in the latest constituency poll on 17% of first preferences.
Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats at 4/1 is the standout value pick. She is a central figure in the Tonn na Cle left transfer pact, and her Gaeltacht roots give her a distinctive profile in this constituency. If the left vote consolidates effectively on transfers, she is well placed to emerge as the beneficiary.
Helen Ogbu of Labour at 12/1 is another worth considering. She has dramatically outperformed expectations in the polls and is the most popular candidate among younger voters. Sheila Garrity , despite being Catherine Connolly 's former campaign manager, is a long shot at 200/1 following a disappointing poll showing. Thomas Welby at 9/1 is the dark horse his transfer-friendly profile could yet make him competitive in the final counts.
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Bill is as passionate about Irish football as they come, with an agonising longing to see his country grace a World Cup stage. A League of Ireland devotee and lifelong Man United fan, he knows better than most what sporting heartbreak feels like, and brings that perspective to the BOYLE Sports Blog. With roots in greyhound racing and a curiosity spanning politics, snooker, WWE and beyond, there is rarely a sporting conversation he cannot add to.
