Wondering what the Dublin Central Irish By-Election odds are? Well then, wonder no longer, as we have you covered with all the latest odds for this constituency.
We also break down everything you need to know about the constituency, including the number of seats available, previous election results and candidate track records.
Odds
Dublin Central By-Election Odds
Candidate | Party | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
Daniel Ennis | Social Democrats | 3/10 | 76.9% |
Janice Boylan | Sinn Féin | 5/2 | 28.6 |
Gerry Hutch | Independent | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Ray McAdam | Fine Gael | 18/1 | 5.3% |
Janet Horner | Green | 22/1 | 4.3% |
Ruth O'Dea | Labour | 66/1 | 1.5% |
Malachy Steenson | Independent | 80/1 | 1.2% |
John Stephens | Fianna Fáil | 100/1 | 1% |
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin | People Before Profit | 200/1 | 0.5% |
Ian Noel Smyth | Aontú | 200/1 | 0.5% |
Andrew Kelly | Centre Party | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Paul Fitzsimons | Ireland First | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.
Dublin Central's Favourites For Election
Daniel Ennis
Daniel Ennis (Social Democrats) — Dublin Central Favourite
The favourite to be elected in Dublin Central is Daniel Ennis ( Social Democrats ) at odds of 3/10 . Those odds imply that he has a 76.9% chance of being elected in this constituency.
Daniel Ennis is a Dublin City Councillor representing the North Strand area. He was elected to Dublin City Council in 2024 and has been one of the more prominent Social Democrats figures in the constituency.
He is the son of an alleged associate of the Hutch family, a fact which has added an unusual dynamic to this particular contest. His party colleague, Gary Gannon, currently holds a seat in Dublin Central as a TD, which has boosted the Social Democrats ' profile in the constituency considerably.
Janice Boylan
Janice Boylan (Sinn Féin)
According to the latest betting odds, Janice Boylan ( Sinn Féin ) is the next most likely candidate to earn a seat in Dublin Central . These odds suggest she has a strong chance of winning a seat in this constituency.
Janice Boylan is a Dublin City Councillor who was first elected to the council in 2014 and represents the North Inner City area. She was the running mate of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald in Dublin Central at the 2024 General Election, but narrowly failed to win a seat.
Her base in the flat complexes of the north inner city gives her a strong first preference foundation, and she will be hoping that transfers from across the left hold up on polling day.
Gerry Hutch
Gerry Hutch (Independent)
Independent candidate Gerry Hutch is priced at 7/1 to take the seat in Dublin Central , implying a 13% chance of election.
Gerry Hutch , known as The Monk, is a notorious figure whose candidacy again adds one of the most unusual subplots in Irish political history. He narrowly missed out on the fourth and final seat in Dublin Central at the 2024 General Election, finishing just short of the transfers needed to get over the line.
His populist, community-focused campaign resonated with a significant section of the Dublin Central electorate, and he is expected to be competitive once again.
Ray McAdam
Ray McAdam (Fine Gael)
Next up in the Dublin Central 2026 By-Election odds is Ray McAdam ( Fine Gael ), who has been given odds of 12/1 to win a Dáil seat, implying an 8% chance of election.
Ray McAdam is the current Lord Mayor of Dublin and a Dublin City Councillor. He was selected as the Fine Gael candidate in March 2026. As the government party candidate seeking to retain a seat previously held by former Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe , McAdam faces a difficult task in a constituency that historically leans toward opposition parties.
His high-profile role as Lord Mayor gives him strong name recognition across the city.
Janet Horner
Janet Horner (Green Party)
Janet Horner is a Dublin City Councillor representing the North Inner City , having first been co-opted to the council in 2019 and retaining her seat in the 2024 local elections. She is the Green Party Chairperson and spokesperson on foreign affairs.
A long-term resident of the constituency, Horner has campaigned on housing, climate, public transport and childcare throughout the campaign. The Green Party lost their Dublin Central seat at the 2024 General Election when Neasa Hourigan was defeated, and Horner is seeking to restore Green representation in the constituency. She will be hoping that a strong transfer pact among left-wing candidates can carry her over the line.
Ruth O'Dea
Ruth O'Dea (Labour)
Ruth O'Dea is a community activist and staff member in Dublin Central TD Marie Sherlock's constituency office, having lived in the north inner city for nearly 30 years. She was selected as the Labour candidate in March 2026 following a convention at the Teachers' Club on Parnell Square .
O'Dea previously spent 11 years at Women's Aid as Head of Training and Development and has been involved in campaigns including the repeal of the Eighth Amendment. This is her first time running for election, and she is contesting the seat on a platform focused on housing, public services and community integration. Labour currently hold a seat in Dublin Central through Marie Sherlock , making a second seat a significant but ambitious target.
Seat Breakdown
Dublin Central Breakdown
Number of Seats
There is 1 seat up for grabs in Dublin Central .
Why Is There a Vacancy?
The vacancy was created by the resignation of Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe on 21 November 2025. Donohoe , the former Minister for Finance, stepped down to take up a position with the World Bank .
2024 Dublin Central General Election Results
Candidate | Party | FPV |
|---|---|---|
Mary Lou McDonald | Sinn Féin | 28.1% |
Gary Gannon | Social Democrats | 14.8% |
Paschal Donohoe | Fine Gael | 14.2% |
Marie Sherlock | Labour | 12.2% |
Gerry Hutch | Independent | 10.4% |
Tips
Dublin Central Irish By-Election Tips
With 14 candidates on the ballot in Dublin Central , this is shaping up as one of the most open and unpredictable by-elections in years. The Social Democrats ' Daniel Ennis is the clear market leader, bolstered by his party's strong local profile and the performances of sitting TD Gary Gannon in recent cycles.
Janice Boylan of Sinn Féin will be banking on the transfer pact among left-wing candidates to close the gap. The combined left vote in Dublin Central at the 2024 General Election was considerable, and if it holds together on the day, it could be enough to deliver a second seat for the opposition.
Gerry Hutch remains the wildcard. He came closer than most expected in 2024 and has maintained a visible presence on the ground. The anti-establishment vote in Dublin Central is real, and Hutch has shown he can mobilise it. Do not rule him out.
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