NFL Tips: Lions v Commanders Prediction, Tips, & Best Bet – Divisional Round Playoffs

In this post I share my Lions vs Commanders prediction and tips with you as we break down the betting odds, team news and matchups ahead of this NFC Divisional round matchup.

The Detroit Lions are the #1 seed in the National Football Conference playoffs after a 15-2 record in the regular season. They will be expecting to make it to the NFC Championship game for the second consecutive year.

The Commanders on the other hand are the lowest remaining seed in the playoffs and the only wildcard team to beat a divisional champion in the previous round. They are a young and upcoming squad led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels who will be riding a high after their walk-off field goal win against the Buccaneers.

Can the Lions deliver on expectations and set up a home NFC Championship game? Or will the Commanders cause a shock and knock off the NFC’s #1 seed?

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of this NFC Divisional round game.

How To Watch Lions vs Commanders

When is the Lions vs Commanders game on?

This Lions vs. Commanders playoff game is scheduled to kick off at 1 am GMT on Saturday night/Sunday morning, January 19th.

TV Channel

This game will be broadcast on Sky Sports Action and Sky Sports Main Event in the UK and Ireland.

Live Stream

If you have a Sky Sports or NowTV subscription you can stream the game on those platforms.

International audiences can stream the game on DAZN which is the new platform for NFL Game Pass International.

Where is the Lions vs Commanders Game Being Played?

The Detroit Lions are the home team for this game so it will be played at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

Lions vs Commanders Odds

Moneyline Betting Odds

The Detroit Lions are heavy 2/9 favourites to win this game and advance to the NFC Championship.

The Commanders, on the other hand, are 31/10 underdogs to be victorious in Detroit this Saturday night.

Handicap Betting Odds

Detroit Lions: -9.5 @ 20/23

Washington Commanders: +9.5 @ 20/21

The Lions are 9.5-point favourites in the handicap betting for this game. That means Detroit will have to win by 10 or more points for a handicap bet on them to be graded a winner.

Over/Under Odds – Total Match Points

Over: 55.5 points @ 20/21

Under: 55.5 points @ 20/23

The over/under on total points for this game is 55.5 points with odds of 20/21 on the over and 20/23 on the under. In other words, linemakers are expecting a shootout in this NFC Divisional round matchup.

Lions vs Commanders Preview

Lions vs Commanders Key Stats

Lions

Offence

Points Scored: 33.2 (1st)

Offensive Yards Per game: 409.5 (2nd)

Red Zone Touchdown %: 69.44 (2nd)

Defence

Points Allowed: 20.1 (7th)

Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 342.4 (20th)

Red Zone Touchdown % Allowed: 50.91 (7th)

Commanders

Offence

Points Scored: 28.2 (5th)

Offensive Yards Per game: 368.6 (6th)

Red Zone Touchdown %: 61.84 (8th)

Defence

Points Allowed: 22.8 (18th)

Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 324.6 (10th)

Red Zone Touchdown % Allowed: 60.71 (23rd)

The Lions’ Form

Record: 15-2

Record At Home: 7-2

The Lions’ Results

Week 18: Lions 31-9 Vikings

Week 17: 49ers 34-40 Lions

Week 16: Bears 17-34 Lions

Week 15: Lions 42-28 Bills

Week 14: Lions 34-31 Packers

The Lions are 4-1 in their last 5 outings with their lone loss coming against the Buffalo Bills at home in December.

The Commanders’ Form

Record: 13-5

Road Record: 5-3

The Commanders’ Results

Wildcard: Buccaneers 20-23 Commanders

Week 18: Cowboys 19-23 Commanders

Week 17: Commanders 30-24 Falcons

Week 16: Commanders 36-33 Eagles

Week 15: Saints 19-20 Commanders

The Commanders are 5-0 in their last 5 games including wins against 2 playoff teams (the Bucs in the wildcard round and the Eagles in December). One of those wins, their win against the Eagles, comes with the caveat that starting QB Jalen Hurts got injured early in that game.

Lions vs Commanders Head-To-Head

All-Time Head-To-Head Record

The Commanders lead the all-time series over the Lions 31-16. The Lions however have had the advantage in recent matchups between these franchises with a 4-1 record against the Commanders in their previous 5 meetings.

Recent Head-To-Head Games

The last time these teams played was in 2022 when the Lions won 36-27 at home. That game has little relevance heading into this game considering this Commanders squad has a new QB and Head Coach.

The Key Matchups

Quarterback: Jared Goff vs Jayden Daniels

This is an interesting match-up at quarterback. Detroit QB Jared Goff is coming off probably the best year of his career and led this talented Detroit team to a 15-2 regular season record.

Jayden Daniels for Washington is a rookie, who typically struggle in the playoffs, but Daniels' success has been unprecedented in his first year as a pro. The young Commanders quarterback is coming off a fantastic playoff debut last week where he posted a passer rating of 110.2 with 268 yards and 2 TDs.

I would give a very slight advantage to the Lions here with Goff’s playoff experience (which includes a Super Bowl appearance) and coming off the year he had. However, Daniels could well be the star of the show on Saturday night.

Head Coach: Dan Campbell vs Dan Quinn

A lot of people will say that the Lions have the clear advantage at Head Coach with Dan Campbell ahead of this game. I don’t necessarily agree. Dan Quinn has had plenty of success in this league having led the Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance in 2017.

Both coaches are ultra aggressive so we are likely to see a few 4th down attempts in this game. Campbell, in particular, is perhaps too aggressive as he has gone for it on 4th downs on a few occasions where the advanced analytics would suggest that kicking is the better choice.

In terms of play calling, the advantage would go to the Lions with the highly regarded Ben Johnson calling their offensive plays. However, Kliff Kingsbury, Commanders OC, is also well respected in league circles for his offensive scheme and has done a great job with rookie QB Daniels.

Offence

These are two explosive offences as the over/under total of 55.5 points would suggest. The Lions, at home, have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball in this matchup. Detroit were the #1 ranked offence in the league in points scored and 2nd in yards per game and touchdown % in the red zone.

The Commanders also have a great offence but they will have to deal with a noisy Detroit crowd which will make communications difficult in this game. Washington also ranked top 10 in key offensive stats such as points scored, offensive yards and red zone TD %.

Defence

Defence hasn’t been the strength of either of these teams this season. Detroit has the better defence according to the regular season stats but they have suffered from key injuries. Superstar DE Aidan Hutchinson is out for the year, the secondary doesn’t resemble their starting unit with key injuries to CBs Carlton Davis and Khalil Dorsey.

The Commanders have been an average defence this season but made some big plays in big moments against the Bucs last week to win that wildcard game. This will be a step up against a potent Lions attack.

Lions vs Commanders Tips

Handicap Betting: Commanders +9.5 @ 20/21

Back the Commanders +9.5 @ 20/21 . While the Lions are deserved favourites, Washington’s recent form and ability to keep games close make this handicap appealing.

Total Points: Over 55.5 @ 20/21

Take the Over 55.5 @ 20/21 . Both offences are explosive, and with Detroit’s injuries on defence, we can expect a high-scoring game.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Jayden Daniels @ 9/4

The rookie QB’s rushing ability makes him a great value pick for a touchdown in a game that he is sure to have plenty of dropbacks in plus designed running plays as the Commanders try to match the Lions’ offensive firepower.

Lions vs Commanders Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: Lions 38-30 Commanders

The Detroit Lions should have enough firepower to outlast the Commanders at home. Expect a strong performance from Jared Goff and this Lions' offence to book them a spot in the NFC Championship.

Best Bet: 60+ points scored @ 13/8

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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