In this post I share my Chiefs vs Bills prediction and tips with you as we break down the betting odds, team news and matchups ahead of this AFC Championship Game.
How To Watch Chiefs vs Bills
When is the Chiefs vs Bills game on?
Kickoff at 11:30 pm GMT (6:30 pm ET) on Sunday, January 26th.
TV Channel
If you are in the UK or Ireland you can tune into the Sky Sports NFL/Main Event to watch this game.
Live Stream
You can live stream all NFL games, including Chiefs vs Bills, on the BoyleSports app!
International audiences can stream the game on DAZN which is the new platform for NFL Game Pass International.
Where is the Chiefs vs Bills Game Being Played?
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri.
Chiefs vs Bills Odds
Team | Moneyline | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Chiefs | 5/6 | 54.5% |
Bills | Evens | 50% |
Moneyline Betting Odds
Chiefs: 5/6
Bills: Evens
Handicap Betting Odds
Chiefs -1.5 @ 10/11
Bills +1.5 @ 10/11
Over/Under Odds – Total Match Points
Over 49.5: 10/11.
Under 49.5: 20/23.
Bet on NFL Odds at BoyleSports
Chiefs vs Bills Preview
Chiefs’ Form and Key Storylines
Kansas City comes into this game riding high after a fairly comfortable win in the Divisional Round against the Houston Texans. Patrick Mahomes continues to show why he’s the greatest quarterback of his generation, orchestrating a potent Chiefs offence that is super efficient and takes care of the football.
Tight end Travis Kelce remains Mahomes’ go-to target, excelling in clutch moments. The Chiefs’ balanced attack, featuring a two-headed rushing attack of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt will pose massive problems for this Buffalo defence.
Arrowhead Stadium’s famously loud crowd has proven to be a significant factor for the Chiefs in the Playoffs over recent years and the Chiefs are 9-0 at home this season.
Bills’ Form and Key Storylines
Buffalo’s season has been a mix of dominance and grit, but their form leading into this game is strong. They took care of the ball in the Divisional Round to beat a fancied Ravens side while QB Josh Allen once again showcased his dual-threat abilities.
It has been a case of addiction by subtraction for the Bills on offence. The team’s top two receivers in recent years, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, left last offseason and as a result we’ve seen a greater spread of targets plus a renewed emphasis on the ground game. This has been a winning formula for Buffalo to this point.
On defence, Buffalo has given up plenty of points to playoff opponents throughout the season. Last week it was their ability to create turnovers (3) which ultimately proved enough in a 2-point victory over Baltimore. Their ability to contain Travis Kelce will be crucial and they’ll know all about him given the amount of times these teams have faced off in both the regular and postseason in recent years.
Chiefs vs Bills Head-To-Head
All-Time Head-To-Head Record
The Bills lead the all-time series 30-25-1 against the Chiefs.
Recent Head-To-Head Games
Interestingly Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills are 4-4 vs the Chiefs under Patrick Mahomes. The problem however for Buffalo has been the postseason where they are 0-3 against the Mahomes-led Chiefs.
The Key Matchups
Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen
This is a matchup of two of the NFL’s most dynamic QBs. Mahomes brings playoff pedigree and elite decision-making, while Allen offers game-breaking ability with both his arm and legs.
Travis Kelce vs. Bills Secondary
Kelce is a nightmare for defenders, especially in playoff games. Buffalo’s defence must find a way to limit his impact while not overcommitting resources.
Bills’ Pass Rush vs. Chiefs’ O-Line
The Bills need to pressure Mahomes to disrupt his rhythm. Von Miller and Greg Rousseau will look to break through Kansas City’s sturdy offensive line.
Chiefs vs Bills Tips
Josh Allen Anytime TD @ 10/11
Josh Allen remains one of the league's premier dual-threat quarterbacks, excelling in the red zone with his rushing ability. In high-stakes games, Allen frequently takes matters into his own hands, and the Chiefs’ defence has had trouble containing mobile quarterbacks. Backing him for a rushing touchdown is a solid pick.
Josh Allen Anytime TD
Travis Kelce Anytime TD @ Evens
Travis Kelce thrives in playoff football, and Patrick Mahomes looks to him in crucial moments. Kelce's elite route running and knack for finding space in tight windows make him a reliable scoring option, particularly in the red zone. Getting him at evens for an anytime touchdown offers strong value.
Under 49.5 Points @ 20/23
Both teams favour efficient, methodical offensive styles that rely on a mix of short passes and effective running games. This approach often results in long, time-consuming drives that limit the total number of possessions for each team. With fewer opportunities to score and both defences capable of making key stops, this game has the makings of a lower-scoring affair that stays under the 49.5-point line.
Chiefs vs Bills Prediction & Best Bet
Prediction: Chiefs 24 Bills 22
This game promises to be an intense battle between two of the AFC's heavyweights, but the Chiefs have the edge. Patrick Mahomes' ability to rise to the occasion in high-stakes games and Kansas City's experience in these situations could prove decisive. While the Bills will make it close, expect the Chiefs to secure a narrow 3-point victory, booking their spot in Super Bowl 59.
Best Bet: Chiefs @ 5/6
Bet on NFL Odds at BoyleSports
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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