In this post, we take a look at the NFL MVP odds and give you the rundown on each of the betting favourites’ chances of winning this prestigious award.
The award is presented to the player judged to be the most valuable in the National Football League during the regular season. There are 50 sportswriters who make up the panel of NFL MVP voters.
NFL MVP Odds
| 2023 NFL MVP Betting Odds | ||
| Player | Odds | Chance |
| Lamar Jackson | 1/200 | 99.5% |
| Dak Prescott | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Brock Purdy | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Josh Allen | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 200/1 | 0.5% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 200/1 | 0.5% |
| Tyreek Hill | 200/1 | 0.5% |
What Makes an NFL MVP?
Before we analyse the chances of each of the favourites to win this season’s NFL MVP award let’s first look at what the trends are for NFL MVP winners in the last 20 years.
NFL MVPs by Position Since 2003
| NFL MVPs By Position Since 2003 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | MVPs | % |
| QB | 17 | 85% |
| RB | 3 | 15% |
MVP Is A Quarterback Award
The NFL MVP has been awarded to a quarterback in 17 of the last 20 seasons. Given that, it’s fair to say that the MVP is a quarterback dominated award. And there are no signs of that changing anytime soon either in today’s pass happy, analytically driven league.
| NFL MVP Stats By Year | |||||
| Year | Player | Total Yards | Total TDs | INTs | Team Record |
| 2022 | P Mahomes | 5,608 | 45 | 12 | 14-3#1 Seed |
| 2021 | A Rodgers | 4,212 | 40 | 4 | 13-4#1 Seed |
| 2020 | A Rodgers | 4,442 | 51 | 5 | 13-3#1 Seed |
| 2019 | L Jackson | 4,333 | 43 | 6 | 14-2#1 Seed |
| 2018 | P Mahomes | 5,369 | 52 | 12 | 12-4#1 Seed |
| 2017 | T Brady | 4,605 | 32 | 8 | 13-3#1 Seed |
| 2016 | M Ryan | 5,061 | 38 | 7 | 11-5#2 Seed |
| 2015 | C Newton | 4,473 | 45 | 10 | 15-1#1 Seed |
| 2014 | A Rodgers | 4,650 | 40 | 5 | 12-4#2 Seed |
| 2013 | P Manning | 5,446 | 56 | 10 | 13-3#1 Seed |
| Average | 4,820 | 44 | 8 | #1 Seed | |
There are a few notable trends from this table of the last 10 NFL MVPs.
First of all, a QB has won the NFL MVP in each of the last 10 seasons.
Secondly, each MVP winner has led their team to a top 2 seed in their respective conference, 8 times the #1 seed and twice the #2 seed.
Other notable trends: each MVP has accounted for; 4,200+ total yards, 32 total TDs, 12 or less INTs.
NFL MVP Betting Favourites
Lamar Jackson
Odds
The NFL MVP favourite is Lamar Jackson at 1/200 according to the latest NFL betting odds at BoyleSports. Those odds imply that Jackson has a 99.5% chance of winning the 2023 NFL MVP award.
Resume
Team’s Seed: #1 seed in the AFC
Total Yards: 4,499
Total TDs: 29
Total INTs: 7
Analysis
Jackson is a virtual certainty for the NFL MVP award this season based on the current betting odds. As he should be.
In what has been a weak year of quarterback play in the NFL, the 2019 MVP put his name into the mix for the award going into the final weeks of the season. Down the stretch it was between Jackson, 49ers QB Brock Purdy, and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.
Jackson’s performance against the 49ers in week 16 in a primetime game more or less knocked 9ers QB Purdy out of the MVP race as the Ravens cruised to a 33-19 win in San Francisco. That same week, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott’s MVP aspirations were dealt a devastating blow as he struggled with his team well beaten by the Buffalo Bills in a crucial late season game.
Jackson more or less sealed the deal on the MVP race in week 17 against Miami as he put up 5 TDs to lead his team to a 56-19 win against the Dolphins, one of the other top seeds in the AFC.
Verdict
As the odds suggest, anyone other than Lamar Jackson being awarded the NFL MVP would be a shock.
Dak Prescott
Odds
The co-2nd favourite for the 2023 NFL MVP award is Dak Prescott at 20/1 per the latest NFL odds at BoyleSports. Those odds suggest that Prescott has a 4.8% chance of winning the award.
Resume
Team’s Seed: #2 seed in the NFC with a win in week 18.
Total Yards: 4,479
Total TDs: 34
Total INTs: 8
Analysis
Prescott has a pretty good MVP case going by his resume this year. If the Cowboys win in week 18 and secure the #2 seed in the NFC then Prescott would have a resume that checks the boxes of previous MVP winners in the last 10 years.
You can make a good case for Prescott to be more deserving of the MVP over Jackson. The Cowboys QB has more TDs, will finish the season with more yards, and has a higher QB rating.
What Dak lacks however is a signature primetime performance down the home stretch of the season. The Cowboys played the Lions in week 17 of the season in a primetime game and while they won and Prescott had 300+ yards, it wasn’t a vintage performance from Dak and Dallas probably would have lost if it weren’t for a controversial penalty against the Lions at the end of the game.
Verdict
In theory, Prescott has a good argument for MVP but two late season losses and subpar performances by Dak will likely be the reason that he comes up short.
Brock Purdy
Odds
The other co-2nd favourite in the NFL MVP odds market is Brock Purdy at 20/1. Those odds imply that Purdy has a 4.8% chance of winning the MVP.
Resume
Team’s Seed: #1 seed in the NFC
Total Yards: 4,424
Total TDs: 33
Total INTs: 11
Analysis
Brock Purdy had a great case for NFL MVP going into week 16 of the season. In fact, he was the favourite at that time.
A lot of people, including myself, would have argued that Purdy didn’t deserve the MVP even then despite his team being a top seed and him having great stats. Why? Because he is surrounded by more talent on offence than any other QB in the league along with having the best play caller in the NFL in the form of Head Coach Kyle Shanahan.
Nevertheless, if Purdy put up good stats and the 49ers beat the Ravens in that week 16 home primetime game he would have had a great case for MVP. However, that’s not what happened. Instead, Purdy had the worst game of his career with 0 TDs and 4 INTs. That performance essentially ended his MVP aspirations.
Verdict
Great stats but his horrific week 16 primetime performance against Baltimore will be the reason he doesn’t win this award along with the question marks around how much of his success is down to him and how much is down to the talent around him.
Click Below For Our LIVE NFL MVP Odds
Recent NFL MVP Winners
| NFL MVP Winners Since 2000 | ||
| Year | Winner | Position |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | QB |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | QB |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | QB |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | QB |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | QB |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | QB |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | QB |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | QB |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | QB |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | QB |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | RB |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | QB |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | QB |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning | QB |
| 2008 | Peyton Manning | QB |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | QB |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | RB |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander | RB |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | QB |
| 2003 | Peyton Manning/Steve McNair | QB |
| 2002 | Rich Gannon | QB |
| 2001 | Kurt Warner | QB |
| 2000 | Marshall Faulk | RB |
Players With Most NFL MVP Awards
| Most NFL MVP Awards Won | |
| Player | MVPs |
| Peyton Manning | 5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 |
| Tom Brady | 3 |
| Brett Favre | 3 |
| Jim Brown | 3 |
| Johnny Unitas | 3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 |
| Steve Young | 2 |
| Joe Montana | 2 |
*Prices subject to fluctuation.
