Following speculation that Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald could be eyeing the Irish Presidency, we’ve explored the runners and riders who could replace her in her current position.
Mary Lou McDonald has been the President of Sinn Féin since February 2018, after assuming the role vacated by Gerry Adams held the position from 1983-2018, which made him the longest-serving president in the party’s history.
With the Irish Presidential Election pencilled in for at least the 11th of November of this year, speculation has risen that Mary Lou McDonald could be set to put her name in the hat, and if she does, who replaces her as Sinn Fein leader?
Next Sinn Fein Leader Outright Odds
Country | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Pearse Doherty | 4/11 | 73.3% |
Michelle O’Neill | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Eoin O’Broin | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Matt Carthy | 8/1 | 11.1% |
David Cullinane | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Bar | 33/1 | 2.9% |
Next Sinn Fein Leader Favourites
Pearse Doherty – 4/11
The favourite to be the next Sinn Fein Leader is TD for Donegal Pearse Doherty with odds of 4/11, suggesting a 73.% chance of him being elected to the role.
Pearse Doherty (48) has been a TD for Donegal since 2016 after previously serving as TD for the Donegal South-West constituency from 2010 to 2016. He also previously served as a Senator for the Agricultural Panel from 2007 to 2010.
Born in Glasgow to Irish parents, he returned to Ireland at 3 and grew up in the Irish-speaking town of Gweedore, where he grew up and became fluent in Irish. He later two years of his civil engineering course, earning a national certificate that entitled him to work as a civil engineering technician.
Following his background as a founding member of Ogra Sinn Fein, he’s always been held in high regard in the party. He’s the current deputy leader of the party and has become a prominent voice for the party as their Finance Spokesperson, as well as challenging the government on issues like the cost-of-living crisis and insurance reform.
It's clear why he’s favourite to take the role next, but I think the odds of 4/11 overestimate his chances.
*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Michelle O’Neill – 5/1
The second favourite to be elected as the next Sinn Fein Leader is First Minister of Northern Ireland Michelle O’Neill with odds of 5/1, suggesting s 16.7% chance of her election to the role.
Michelle O’Neill (48) has been First Minister of Northern Ireland since February 2024 and Vice President of Sinn Féin since 2018. She has also been the MLA for Mid Ulster in the Northern Ireland Assembly since 2007 and previously deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 2020 to 2022.
She was born in in the south of Ireland in Fermoy, Cork into an Irish republican family including her father Brendan Doris was a Provisional IRA prisoner and Sinn Féin councillor and her Paul Doris is a former national president of the Irish Northern Aid Committee (NORAID), as well as a number of cousin ties.
A prominent voice in the party on social and economic quality, equal rights and a United Ireland. This position in the short term is only likely to come up if Mary Lou won the Irish Presidency, and if she were to be elected, Michelle O’Neill as the New Leader of Sinn Fein could be an interesting method of Sinn Fein putting a unity referendum into the discourse.
A major player in Sinn Fein at odds of 5/1, she represents an exceptional value play in the current betting market.
*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Eoin O’Broin – 6/1
The third favourite to be elected as the next Sinn Fein Leader TD for Dublin Mid-West is Eoin Ó’Broin at odds of 6/1.
Eoin O’Broin (52) has held the position of TD for Dublin Mid-West since being elected in the 2016 general election, serving as the party’s spokesperson on Housing, Local Government, and Heritage. He was a Belfast City Councillor from 2001 to 2004 and Sinn Féin’s Director of European Affairs in Brussels from 2004 to 2007.
His primary focus is on the housing market, advocating for affordable homes and tackling Ireland’s housing crisis. He also emphasises local government reform and heritage preservation, pushing for sustainable urban development and cultural protection.
Has considerable influence in the party, but at odds of 6/1, I don’t see there being value in the bet.
*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Matt Carthy– 8/1
Next in the betting to be elected as the next Sinn Fein Leader is TD for Cavan-Monaghan Matt Carthy.
He’s been a TD for the Cavan–Monaghan constituency since the 2020 general election and previously served as a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) for the Midlands–Northwest constituency from 2014 to 2020.
Matt is a passionate advocate for reunification and has become a prominent voice on foreign affairs, agriculture and social justice. While high-profile in the party, his relatively short-term stint as a TD will likely count against him.
*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
David Cullinane – 10/1
Rounding off the market leaders is Waterford TD David Cullinane at odds of 10/1.
David Cullinane has been TD for Waterford since the 2016 general election, and he previously served as a Senator for the Labour Panel from 2011 to 2016 and was an unsuccessful general election candidate in 2002, 2007 and 2011.
He’s a prominent voice in the party for healthcare reform, advocating for a universal, all-island health service to address inequalities. Additionally, he engages in debates on economic justice, focusing on cost-of-living issues and fair immigration policies.
Doesn’t have the tact required to take the role, in my opinion, so odds of 101 overestimate his chances of becoming the next Sinn Fein Leader.
*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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