Next Conservative Leader Betting Odds, Favourites & Tips

In this post, we are taking a look at the next Conservative Leader odds with six senior Tory MPs making the ballot to replace Rishi Sunak.

Next Conservative Leader Odds

Next Conservative Leader Favourites & Tips

Robert Jenrick

The favourite to be the Next Conservative Leader is Robert Jenrick at odds of 4/7. Those odds suggest that he has a 63.6% chance of becoming the new leader of the UK’s biggest opposition party.

The Newark MP first earned his place as a member of parliament when he contested the 2014 by-election for the area following the resignation of then-sitting MP Patrick Mercer. Since then, Jenrick has held several roles in government such as Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government from 2019-2021, Minister of State for Health from September to October 202 and Minister of State for Immigration from 2022-2023.

Despite his role as Immigration Minister and being regarded as a close friend of the former Conservative Leader Rishi Sunak, he quit the cabinet earlier this year claiming the Rwanda Plan would not work. Robert wants the UK to leave the ECHR (European Convention on Human Rights) and to cap net migration at 100,000. His campaign is being led by well-known conservative figure Danny Kruger.

Jenrick came out on top in the first Conservative MP Ballot as he won 23.7% of the vote from 28 backers which makes him a justified favourite. Following the elimination of Priti Patel from the leadership election he won the second MP Ballot with 33 backers and 27.7% of the vote.

As the latest odds of 4/7 suggest he looks very much like the man to beat in the race to become the next Conservative Party Leader.

Kemi Badenoch

The second favourite to be the Next Conservative Leader is Kemi Badenoch at odds of 2/1. Those odds imply that she has a 33.3% chance of becoming the new Conservative leader.

Badenoch first joined the Tories in 2005 and would later contest for a seat in parliament for the first time in 2010. She began her political career in earnest with the Conservatives in 2015 after being appointed as a London Assembly Member. She had previously come 5th in the voting for the position in 2012 but was appointed after two other Assembly Members ahead of her were elected as MPs in the 2015 General Election.

Since then she has held several prominent positions including Minister for Women and Equalities from 2022-2024, Secretary of State for Business and Trade from 2023 to 2024 and most recently was the Shadow Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government.

Ahead of the Conservative Leadership election, she has said that capitalism is not a “dirty word” and said that the defence of free enterprise would be at the heart of her campaign. She was re-elected last month in North West Essex despite having her healthy 2019 majority cut to just 2,610 votes. Following the election, she said, “At the foundation of our and indeed their assembly of the Conservative family, is a confident set of principles about how our economy should work, and for whom it should work.”

Badenoch came second in the first Conservative MP Ballot for leadership, winning 18.6% of the vote from 22 backers and finishing 4.9% back of Robert Jenrick. In the second round, she had 28 backers for a total of 23.5% which reduced the gap between her and Jenrick to 4.2%.

While she has still a few votes to pick up to make up the difference between her and the favourite Jenrick, she’s very much a live candidate for the role and odds of 2/1 look to represent solid value here.

James Cleverly

The third favourite to be the Next Conservative Leader is James Cleverly with odds of 9/1. Those odds suggest there’s a 10% chance of him winning this Conservative Leadership contest.

Cleverly, who served in the military, began his political career in the London Assembly which he was a member of from 2008-2016. He was first elected to Parliament in the 2015 General Election a seat which he has since held. The London native previously served as Home Secretary from November 2023 to July 2024 and as Foreign Secretary from 2022 to 2023 plus other junior ministerial positions.

The previous Home Secretary, who now holds the shadow cabinet position, was the first to announce his candidacy for the role of Conservative Leader. He has stressed that he wants to heal divisions in the party. Further to that claim he has said he could lead a party which appeals to both Reform UK voters as well as to Liberal Democrats and Labour supporters.

In the first round of the contest, he picked up 17.8% of the vote from 21 backers but failed to gain a single new vote in the second round of voting which reduced his vote share to just 17.6%. That put him 10.1% behind Jenrick and with a lot of ground to make up.

It’s unlikely that he will trouble the top two in the betting in terms of support and the 10/1 odds on him becoming the Next Conservative Leader reflect his faint chances.

Tom Tugendhat

Tom Tugendhat rounds out the betting with odds of 14/1 available on him becoming the next Conservative Leader. Those odds imply he has a 6.7% chance of becoming the next leader of the opposition.

Following a career in the British military, Tom was first elected to the Tonbridge and Malling constituency in 2015 where he has retained his position in each election since. Tom previously served in the Cabinet as Minister of State for Security from September 2022 to July 2024 and was most recently the Minister of State for Security.

He announced his candidacy on the 24th of July seeking to appeal to all wings of the Conservative Party. In July 2022 he ran in the Leadership Contest before dropping out and endorsing Liz Truss. As a member of the One Nation caucus he is seen as a “moderate” but similar to other candidates says he is prepared to leave the ECHR if required and has spoken up on his record with tax and China.

Tom had 17 votes for 14.4% of the vote in the first round of the contest and increased that to 21 for 17.6% in the second round. However, it’s unlikely that he will go much further in the contest with so much ground to make up on the two favourites.

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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