Ahead of Newcastle vs. Man City on Saturday, we have decided to examine whether Newcastle can replicate the Man City dominance of English and European Football in years to come.
The landscape of football across the globe particularly in the “Elite” sense has arguably gone through more change in the last two decades than it did in the previous two or three at least financially. “Financial Doping” has seen clubs winning significantly more trophies than they did before through financial injection from wealthy owners/investors; prominent examples from these last two decades are Man City and Chelsea.
However, that doesn't tell the full story with “success stories” come heartbreak and liquidation. Macclesfield Town, Bury and Hereford United have all gone out of business during the same period showing the fragility of football finances at the heart of it all.
Thus, there have been several measures in recent years to try and “balance the playing field” with FFP (Financial Fair Play) introduced in 2009 and PSR (Profit and Sustainability Rules) introduced in 2013/14 both having a profound impact on English Football. These measures have been somewhat successful, achieving some of the intended goals. However, that doesn’t mean that it was the right strategy and it has certainly hamstrung Newcastle despite their takeover in October 2021.
Comparing Man City and Newcastle’s Premier League Success Pre & Post Takeover
Man City Pre & Post Takeover
While the Man City “takeover” by Sheikh Mansour is fast approaching close to two decades since the September 2008 date which has transformed the clubs' fortunes on the field, the Newcastle takeover by comparison is very much in its infancy with the club only being taken over officially on October 7th, 2021.
Before their takeover, City in their previous four seasons finished a league average of 11.25th in the Premier League with a best finish of 8th in the 04/05 season and a worst finish of 15th in the 15/16 season.
City saw a rapid rise in stature following their investment with an average league position of 4.75 in the four seasons preceding their takeover culminating in their first Premier League title success in the 11/12 season.
Man City Premier League Finishes Pre-Takeover
04/05 – 8th
05/06 - 15th
06/07 - 14th
07/08 - 9th
Man City Premier League Finishes After Takeover
08/09 - 10th
09/10 - 5th
10/11 - 3rd
11/12 - 1st
Newcastle Pre & Post Takeover
Comparatively, Newcastle before their takeover averaged a Premier League finish of 12th with a best finish of 10th in the 17/18 season with their worst finish being 13th in both the 18/19 and 19/20 seasons.
Newcastle in their first three seasons post-takeover have averaged a league position of 7th with their best being a 4th finish in the 22/23 season and their worst being when they finished 11th in the 17/18 season, their first since being taken over in October of that season.
Newcastle Premier League Finishes Pre-Takeover
17/18 – 10th
18/19 – 13th
19/20 – 13th
20/21 – 12th
Newcastle Premier League Finishes Post-Takeover
21/22 - 11th
22/23 - 4th
23/24 - 7th
24/25 - TBC
Man City v Newcastle: Cup & European Success Pre & Post Takeover
Man City
Before their takeover City hadn’t competed in Europe since the 03/04 season in the UEFA Cup qualifying rounds. Their best cup finishes came with a Quarter Final appearance in the FA Cup in both the 05/06 season and the 06/07 season.
Post takeover City reached the Quarter-Final of the UEFA Cup in the 08/09 season, in the 10/11 season they reached the Round of the 16 in the Europa League and the 11/12 season they were eliminated in the Champions League at the Group Stage before being eliminated by in the Europa League again at the Round of 16 stage.
Before the takeover, they reached the Quarter-Final in the FA Cup in both the 05/06 and 06/07 seasons. However, following the investment their performances became even stronger reaching the Semi-Final of the League Cup in both the 09/10 and 11/12 seasons with the main moment being a watershed moment in the progress of the club when they won the FA Cup in the 10/11 season.
Newcastle
Pre-takeover Newcastle though were more regulars in European Football although they hadn’t appeared since the 06/07 season when they reached the Round of 16 of the UEFA Cup. Since the takeover, they were knocked out of the Champions League at the Group Stage in the 23/24 season though they did come up against Borussia Dortmund, PSG and Milan.
In the Cup competitions Newcastle in the four seasons pre-takeover reached the FA Cup Quarter-Final in the 19/20 season and the EFL Cup Quarter-Final during the 20/21 season. Post takeover they’ve become even more consistent, being EFL Cup runners-up in the 22/23 season as well as reaching the Quarter Final of both the FA Cup and EFL Cup in the 23/24 season.
It’ll be interesting to see if they can finally land a cup competition in 24/25 as City did early in their takeover journey (second season).
Transfers
Man City
Arguably the most interesting point of comparison between both sides in their fortunes post-takeover is how they approach their transfer dealings (or at least how the rules implicated them to do so).
Man City were in the fortunate position to complete their takeover at the beginning of the 08/09 season with the transfer window still open. They clearly had dealings done before the takeover was officially announced but the headliner came post takeover with Robinho joining from Real Madrid for the fee of €42M. Wayne Bridge, Craig Bellamy, Nigel de Jong and Shay Given followed in the next window and it meant City topped the spending in the league with €157.35m over double Liverpool’s spending of €73.45m and treble Man United’s total of €45.25m.
City topped the spending table again in 09/10 with an expenditure of €147.30m over three times more than the next highest spenders Aston Villa, Liverpool and Tottenham. The trend continued in their third season topping the spending table this time around with a total of €183.61m. Finally, by the fourth season, the Man City squad was in a place where they were outspent for the first time since the takeover with Chelsea spending €96.45m to their €91.05m.
Newcastle
The transfer landscape that Newcastle entered post-takeover was very different to Man City with the new PSR (Profit and Sustainability Rules) introduced in the 2013/14 season meant that the club were unable to invest the sort of sums that they likely would have been able to and liked to due to their wealthy Saudi Owners. As well as the aforementioned rule changes when Newcastle were taken over in October 2021, they also hadn’t the benefit of the summer transfer window and were 19th in the Premier League and in the midst of an early season relegation battle.
However, Eddie Howe was brought in the following November and in January the new ownership brought in the solid, albeit on paper a little “unexciting”, signings of Trippier, Wood, Guimarães and Burn for roughly €101.10m. That took the club's total expenditure for the year to €130.50m for the season and fourth for expenditure behind Arsenal, Man United and Man City. Ironically, even not accounting for inflation, it was far less than what City spent in their first season post-takeover.
Newcastle in their second season were expected to finally push their financial weight around. And although they spent €185.35m, they were still outspent by Arsenal, West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Man United and Chelsea.
Last season Newcastle spent even less with €153.20m which meant they were outspent by Chelsea, Tottenham, Man City, Arsenal, Man United and Liverpool. Fascinatingly in the 24/25 season, they’ve only spent €68.20m which was only more than Everton, Liverpool and Man City.
Financial Fair Play and Profit and Sustainability Rules
Arguably the primary reason for the divulging paths between both clubs in the transfer market in their first four seasons post takeover has been due to the PSR Rules which were introduced for the 2013/14 season.
While I believe the rules are well-intentioned (for the most part) I’m unsure whether they have had the desired impact on the league's competitive balance with the clubs arguably most hamstrung by these rules being Newcastle and Aston Villa (who’ve gate-crashed the ”big clubs” these last two seasons) who had to sell some of their top young players (often to “big six clubs”) to align with the new financial rules.
Regulation/Sustainability are regular buzzwords when it comes to describing the evolution of football finances this last decade. However, these rules could have more of an impact on maintaining the “status quo” for the likes of Man City and Chelsea who ironically gate-crashed it not so long ago.
Newcastle were purchased by a wealthy ambitious owner looking to challenge the establishment, but they certainly have the financial muscle meaning there is no question of sustainability.
The Verdict
While Man City found great success in their first four seasons post-takeover culminating in an FA Cup success in the third season and a seminal Premier League title victory in their fourth season they were not hampered by the financial rules that Newcastle are now at the behest of.
Newcastle’s rise has been impressive these last three seasons as they’ve become more consistent in the league, cup and participated in Europe. While they’re yet to win a single trophy given the financial restrictions on them, by comparison, I think their rise has been lesser to this date in terms of silverware but is still more impressive than that of Man City.
Whether Newcastle can break that fourth wall this year and finally win a trophy, that remains to be seen but it's unlikely to be a Premier League title for now, but I do feel their future is bright.
Newcastle are not the next Man City in terms of financial doping but that’s probably down to the rules rather than being “poorer” in a financial sense.
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