New Zealand v Australia Prediction, Tips & Best Bet – Rugby Championship

We have a New Zealand v Australia prediction for you plus a breakdown of the betting odds, team news and matchups ahead of the final weekend in the Rugby Championship.

How To Watch New Zealand v Australia

When is New Zealand v Australia

New Zealand v Australia will kick off at 8.05 am on Saturday morning for viewers in the UK and Ireland.

TV Channel

This game will be streamed on Sky Sports Main Event and on Sky Sports Plus.

Who are the officiating team?

Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)

Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (England), Damien Schneider (Argentina)

TMO: Eric Gauzins (France)

Foul Play Review Officer: Stuart Terheege (England)

Where is New Zealand v Australia

This final round Rugby Championship game will be played in Sky Stadium in Wellington, New Zealand.

New Zealand v Australia Odds

2023 Rugby World Cup finalists New Zealand are currently priced at 1/25 to win their final Rugby Championship test with home comforts in Wellington.

Australia, despite mounting a big comeback last weekend against the All Blacks that fell just short in the end, are 10/1. The draw is seen as an outside chance at 33/1.

Handicap Betting

New Zealand: -21 @ 10/11

Australia: +21 @ 10/11

Handicap Draw: -21 @ 18/1

Team News

New Zealand Team News

Australia Team News

New Zealand v Australia Preview

New Zealand Form

The All Blacks suffered World Cup Final heartbreak at the hands of South Africa last October by a narrow 11-12 scoreline. However, they did enter this Rugby Championship as the reigning champions following their victory in the competition last year.

This summer they returned to action following their World Cup disappointment with a narrow 16-15 victory over England in the first test and they then secured the series with a 24-17 win over the English in the second test. That was subsequently followed by a convincing 47-5 win over Fiji.

Their Rugby Championship defence commenced with a shock 30-38 loss against Argentina before they put the story right with a 42-10 win in their second game. They then came unstuck against the Springboks (albeit narrowly again) 31-27 and 18-12.

Last weekend, despite being heavy favourites ahead of the test, the All Blacks were driven all the way against the Wallabies only winning by a 28-31 margin and not scoring after the 45th minute.

Australia Form

The Wallabies entered the 2024 Rugby Championship on the back of a dismal 2023 Rugby World Cup where they had a first loss to Fiji in 69 years (15-22), a record-breaking defeat against Wales (40-6) which resulted in their first-ever pool stage elimination in the competition. Eddie Jones departed the Head Coach position and was subsequently replaced by a high-profile addition in Joe Schmidt, a coach best known for the success he had with Leinster and Ireland in the 2010s.

Their 2024 season started more positively though as they defeated Wales 25-16. Joe Schmidt gave 7 players debuts in that game including Liam Wright who captained the side in his first cap which made him the first player to do so since Ken Catchpole v Fiji in 1961. That was followed by a 36-28 win, again over Wales. Those two wins over the opposition that beat them 40-6 in last year’s World Cup gave reason for hope that Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies were going in the right direction.

They returned to action again in July with a 40-29 victory over Georgia. The honeymoon came to a sudden halt in their opening two Rugby Championship fixtures against World Champions South Africa. In their two opening tests, the Springboks beat the Wallabies 7-33 and 12-30.

Following that they were able to secure their first win of the competition against Argentina 19-20 though the rematch was a hammering as the Pumas put them to the sword to the tune of 67-27.

Australian Rugby is going through a period of transition right now under former Ireland Head Coach Joe Schmidt with some signs of a brighter ahead like the wins over Wales and Argentina in the first test among bad days like the South African losses and Argentina hammering.

Their recent performance against New Zealand gives grounds for optimism but whether or not that can be emulated or even built upon in this test is another story.

New Zealand v Australia Rugby Head-To-Head

All-Time Head-To-Head Record

Australia and New Zealand have been playing against each other in Test Match Rugby since 1903 when the All Blacks beat the Wallabies in Sydney 22–3.

From the 177 Test Matches between both sides, New Zealand have been victorious on 125 occasions and Australia have won 45 times, only 8 draws have occurred.

New Zealand have scored a cumulative of 2,254 points compared to Australia’s 1,799.

Head-To-Head Results Last Five Matches

2024: New Zealand won 28-31 in Accor Stadium

2023: New Zealand won 23- 20 in Forsyth Barr Stadium

2023: New Zealand won 7- 38 in Melbourne Cricket Ground

2022: New Zealand won 40-14 in Eden Park

2022: New Zealand won 37-39 in Docklands Stadium Melbourne

Trends

New Zealand have won 8 of the last 8 tests between both sides with the last Wallabies win coming in the 2020 Tri Nation Series when they won 24-22 in Brisbane back in November 2020.

More interestingly, Australia haven’t beaten the All Blacks in New Zealand since 2001 when they secured a 15-23 win in Dunedin. That gives you an idea of the monumental task that Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies are facing this Saturday in Wellington.

Key Players

Noah Lolesio – Australia

One of the bright spots in this Australian team is ironically New Zealand-born Noah Lolesio who despite only being 24 has already been playing with the Senior International side since debuting in 2020 where from 24 caps he has scored 172 points.

Noah is Australia’s top-scorer in the competition with 27 points scored which is only bettered by four other players. While from the boot last weekend he made 4/4 conversions, his overall performance was poor with him dropping a catch on the way to a Will Jordan try as well as being generally ineffective.

Despite plenty of criticism for his overall performances recently, Schmidt likes him and so this will be a huge game for him Saturday as he looks to prove some of his doubters wrong.

Will Jordan – New Zealand

Howlett, Savea, Lomu and many, many more are the greatest New Zealand try-scorers ever, but Speedster Will Jordan (26) is quickly putting himself in similar conversations amongst the rugby faithful since making his debut for the Kiwis in 2020 he has racked up an impressive tally of 170 points from 36 caps.

We backed Will Jordan to end his scoreless streak in the Rugby Championship and to score the first try of the game and he duly delivered. When it rains it often pours with these sorts of players and I think he will score another try or even two at the weekend again.

New Zealand v Australia Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: New Zealand 30-10 Australia

New Zealand were driven close by Australia last weekend following an uncharacteristically poor showing in the second half. However, I think that’ll spur them on further for this game and I think the ruthless streak could return.

Australia could take a huge step in their progression if they could put in a similar showing to last weekend this coming Saturday though it will be harder to replicate twice with the element of shock now gone.

I can only see a New Zealand win in this game.

Best Bet: Will Jordan First Tryscorer @ 8/1

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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