We’re bringing you a Monaco vs PSG prediction filled with expert betting tips, plus the latest odds and top-class analysis ahead of this 2025/26 Champions League play-off first leg.
Paris Saint-Germain will be hoping their stuttering Champions League campaign takes a similar route to last season as they prepare to face French rivals Monaco for a place in the last 16.
Monaco, however, are unbeaten in their last four home games in the UEFA Champions League (W1 D3), keeping a clean sheet in each of the last three, so they will be quietly confident about their chances at home against the Parisian outfit.
Monaco vs PSG Prediction – UCL 2025/26
Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain have never previously met in European competition, with Monaco losing their only prior major European tie against a fellow French side: lost 3-2 on aggregate to Marseille in the 1998-99 UEFA Cup round of 16.
Below you’ll find everything you need to know ahead of this highly anticipated Champions League matchup.
Betting Odds
Monaco vs PSG Betting Odds – Champions League 2025/26 Play-Off Leg 1
Result | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Monaco | 4/1 | 20.0% |
PSG | 11/20 | 64.7% |
Draw | 16/5 | 23.8% |
PSG are favourites to win this first leg at 11/20. Monaco are priced at 4/1 to claim a home victory, while the draw is available at 16/5.
*Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.
To Qualify Odds
Monaco – 11/2
PSG – 1/10
Early Payout
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Will Either Team Go 2+ Goals Ahead In Monaco vs PSG? UCL 2025/26
Monaco vs PSG Preview
PSG looked set for an early exit in 2024/25 after a nightmare start saw them pick up just four points from their first five games, but they won the last three to snatch 14th place — and never looked back.
They thrashed Brest in the play-offs before seeing off Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal en route to the final, where they hammered Inter Milan 5-0 to lift their maiden Champions League title.
This season, PSG made a flying start to their title defence, picking up 12 points from a possible 15, but then lost their way somewhat.
Who Will Be The First Goalscorer In Monaco vs PSG? UCL 2025/26
They were held to draws by Athletic Bilbao and Newcastle either side of a defeat at Sporting Lisbon and ended up finishing 11th, meaning they missed out on an automatic spot in the last 16.
Monaco, meanwhile, finished 21st after a mixed campaign that saw them draw half their matches and score only eight goals — the fewest of any team still in the competition.
We think it could be a close affair at the Stade Louis II, and our first Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction is a draw @ 16/5.
How to Watch
How to Watch Monaco vs PSG
The Champions League play-off first leg in Monaco is scheduled to begin at 8pm on Tuesday and will be shown live on TNT Sports 1.
Team Form Guides
Monaco Form Guide
Monaco beat PSG 1-0 at home in Ligue 1 back in November, but they are firm underdogs to knock the holders out of the Champions League this month.
The Monegasques have won just three of 10 competitive matches in 2026 — one of which was a French Cup clash at lowly Orleans — and have been beaten four times, including a 6-1 drubbing at Real Madrid.
Sebastien Pocognoli’s men at least resume their European campaign on the back of a win, beating Nantes 3-1 on Friday, but they will be well aware of what happened to Brest against PSG at this stage of the competition last season, their fellow French side going down 10-0 on aggregate.
However, Monaco are unbeaten in their last four home games in Europe, keeping clean sheets in the most recent three, so they will be a test for PSG’s star-studded side.
Looking at the Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain odds, a goalless stalemate is 14/1, while you can get 15/4 for a score draw.
PSG Form Guide
PSG’s European struggles over the last few months have mirrored their inconsistent domestic form.
Their French Cup defence was ended by neighbours Paris FC in January, and Friday’s 3-1 defeat at out-of-form Rennes saw them lose top spot in Ligue 1.
Luis Enrique’s men did thrash arch-rivals Marseille 5-0 recently, though, and key man Ousmane Dembele has now netted seven times in nine games since the turn of the year after a quiet first half to the season.
Dembele, the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner, is 10/11 to score again this week and, with PSG having plenty of other goal threats in their arsenal, the capital club are 4/1 to notch over 3.5 goals.
That may not seem appealing considering Monaco’s strong defensive record in Europe, but, prior to this season, PSG had won five of six meetings with the Principality club — including victories of 5-2, 4-2 and 4-1.
Monaco vs PSG Predictions
Monaco vs PSG Betting Tips – Champions League 2025/26
Ousmane Dembele to score anytime @ 10/11
Simply click/tap on the above betting tips to add to your betslip.
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*Prices are subject to fluctuation
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