We take a look at the latest Michigan Election Odds as we examine one of the key battleground states ahead of the US Presidential Election next November.
Ahead of the US Election, Michigan is viewed as one of the key “Swing States” which could ultimately decide the winner of the US Presidential Election.
Joe Biden won this state for the Democratic Party in 2020 with a 50.62% share of the vote compared to Donald Trump's total of 47.84. Interestingly this had previously been a state Trump won with 47.50% of the vote in 2016 compared to Clinton’s 47.27%.
Michigan Election Odds
Team | Odds | Chance |
Kamala Harris - Democrats | 4/7 | 63.6% |
Donald Trump - Republicans | 5/4 | 44.4% |
Kamala Harris is currently a 4/7 favourite in the race to win Michigan which implies a 63.6% chance that the Democrat Party win the state for the second successive US Presidential Election.
Donald Trump is seen as a 5/4 outsider to win Michigan which implies a 44.4% chance that he wins the state for the second time in his political history having won it on the way to his election in 2016.
Per OddsChecker, the race to win Michigan looks to be favouring the Democrats with 64% of bets going on their victory compared to just 36% for the Republicans.
What is a Swing State?
A swing state (also known as a battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes.
The seven “Swing States” which is set to decide the 2024 US Election have been dubbed as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Michigan was won by Joe Biden in the 2020 US Presidential Election and was won by Hilary Clinton in the 2016 US Presidential Election.
Latest Polling
Per FiveThirtyEight, which is a site that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States, the race to win the state of Michigan is on a knife edge.
Factoring for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects Kamala Harris is currently leading in the polls by the slimmest of margins on a polling average of 46.7% compared to Donald Trump who is on a total of 45%.
Polls should always be taken with a pinch of salt as the 2016 US Presidential Election proved but those poll numbers have this swing state has it favouring the Democrat Party despite the current betting odds.
Previous Results
During the 2020 Presidential Election, the state of Michigan was won by Joe Biden with a cumulative vote of 2,804,040 which amounted to 50.62% of the vote compared with Trump’s total of 2,649,852 which was 47.84% of the vote. Thus despite increasing his votes in 2016, Trump lost the state.
In 2016 the state was won by Donald Trump after he won a cumulative of 2,279,543 votes for 47.50% of the vote compared to Hilary Clinton who had 2,268,839 and 47.27% of the vote.
Michigan Election Prediction & Best Bet
Prediction: Kamala Harris - (The Democrat Party)
While this is theoretically a “Swing State” it does tend to favour the Democrat Candidate in recent times with them being victorious in the state in 6 of the last 8 elections. The odds have Donald Trump favourite, but I suspect this state seems to favour the Democrat Party and with Kamala's longer odds I think she is the bet here.
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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