Mayo v Derry Prediction, Tips & Preview – All-Ireland Preliminary QF

In this post, we bring you a Mayo v Derry prediction plus all the odds as we preview this All-Ireland Preliminary Quarter-Final clash.

This is undoubtedly the most highly anticipated clash of this weekend’s All-Ireland Football Championship action. Mayo, the perennial contenders who have been unable to achieve the ultimate goal of winning a coveted All-Ireland take on this year’s Division 1 League champions Derry who have seemingly fallen apart in this Championship.

The Westerners will be kicking themselves after conceding a last-gasp point to Dublin last weekend when just one solid defensive sequence was required to see them top the group ahead of their rivals.

Derry, on the other hand, come into this game off a win after beating Westmeath last weekend in what was a de facto knockout match. That was their first win of this season’s Championship having lost 3 previous matches, perhaps a sign of the lack of jeopardy that exists in this current All-Ireland structure. Regardless, they will feel a win here against Mayo could be the spark they need to reignite their Sam Maguire aspirations.

So who will triumph? Check out our big game prediction and analysis below.

How To Watch Mayo v Derry?

When is Mayo v Derry?

Mayo v Derry will throw in at 6.30 pm on Saturday, June 22nd.

TV Channel

Mayo v Derry will be broadcast live exclusively on GAAGO. In other words, this game won’t be broadcast on TV so you’ll have to either purchase access to the game, have a GAAGO subscription or find a local establishment showing the game.

Live Stream

As mentioned previously, both in Ireland and internationally Mayo v Derry will be exclusively streamed on GAAGO.

Where is Mayo v Derry Being Played?

Mayo v Derry will be played in Hastings Insurance MacHale Park in Castlebar as Mayo are the designated home team for this match having finished 2nd in their group as opposed to Derry who finished 3rd in their group.

Mayo v Derry Odds

Mayo, with home advantage, are the odds-on favourites going into this game at 8/13 to win this game in 70 minutes.

Derry, after a disappointing Championship campaign to date, are the 15/8 underdogs to come away with a win in 70 minutes in their trip to Castlebar.

The draw at full-time is priced up at 13/2.

Handicap Betting

Mayo: -1 @ 5/6

Derry: +1 @ 6/5

Handicap Draw: -1 @ 8/1

Mayo v Derry Preview

Team News

Mayo Team News

Mayo are yet to announce their squad for this game.

The biggest absence for Mayo will be Captain Paddy Durcan who is out for the year with an ACL injury suffered last month. Apart from that, Kevin McStay should have his best squad available to him (minus Fergal Boland pending an appeal to his red card) with Eoghan McLaughlin expected to be fit after picking up a knock last weekend and both Diarmuid and Cillian O’Connor appearing off the bench against Dublin.

Derry Team News

Derry are yet to announce their team ahead of this game.

The Oak Leaf County come into the game with a pretty clean bill of health. Their biggest loss to injury this season has been Padraig McGrogan who was another victim of a cruciate ligament injury.

Mayo’s Form

Mayo’s 2024 Results

Dublin 0-17 0-17 Mayo | All-Ireland Groups | Dr Hyde Park

Roscommon 1-15 2-14 Mayo | All-Ireland Groups | Dr Hyde Park

Mayo 0-20 1-08 Cavan | All-Ireland Groups | MacHale Park

Galway 0-16 0-15 Mayo | Connacht Final | Pearse Stadium

Roscommon 0-13 1-15 Mayo | Connacht Semi-Final | Dr Hyde Park

New York 2-06 2-21 Mayo | Connacht Quarter-Final | Gaelic Park

Monaghan 1-14 2-13 Mayo | National League Division 1 | St Tiernach’s Park

Mayo 2-13 3-15 Derry | National League Division 1 | MacHale Park

Mayo 0-15 0-09 Roscommon | National League Division 1 | MacHale Park

Tyrone 1-15 1-11 Mayo | National League Division 1 | Healy Park

Kerry 0-16 0-15 Mayo | National League Division 1 | Austin Stack Park

Mayo 1-12 0-14 Dublin | National League Division 1 | MacHale Park

Galway 0-10 2-12 Mayo | National League Division 1 | Pearse Stadium

Analysis

It has been a case of nearly for Mayo thus far in this season’s Championship. A familiar tale for the green and red outfit.

Nearly Connacht Champions, losing to Galway on the last kick of the game in the Connacht Final despite having a 2-point lead with 72 minutes on the clock.

Nearly topping their All-Ireland group, holding a 1-point advantage against Dublin, once again with 72 minutes on the clock, and once again it was the last act of the game which saw all their good work come undone.

Mayo failing to close out the game in those big matches begs the question of whether it is a case of them being ‘bottlers’, or to put it more generously, not being able to cope with the pressure in the dying moments. Whatever about using those terms, having watched the endings back of both those games I would suggest that it is more a case of some tactical naivety and poor decision-making on the part of this Mayo team.

Against Galway, they gave away two needless frees, unforced errors which resulted in them losing that game. In the Dublin game, Kevin McStay could be seen on the TV cameras urging his players to drop back on the Dublin kick-out. However, the message could not be relayed in time and his players pressed Cluxton’s kick-out. It proved to be a fatal mistake as the Dubs went long, taking at least 7 Mayo players out of the equation as the move ended in Cormac Costello fisting over the bar from close range.

While the game management at the end of these matches has been poor, the performances over the 70 minutes from Mayo have been impressive. If McStay can iron out these end-of-game issues then this team could be a serious threat in this Championship. On current form, they will fancy their chances here against Derry, especially with star forward Ryan O’Donoghue in top form.

Derry’s Form

Derry’s 2024 Results

Derry 2-07 0-09 Westmeath | All-Ireland Groups | Páirc Esler

Derry 0-15 3-17 Armagh | All-Ireland Groups | Celtic Park

Galway 2-14 0-15 Derry | All-Ireland Groups | Pearse Stadium

Derry 0-17 4-11 Donegal | Ulster Championship | Celtic Park

Dublin 2-21 3-18 Derry (Derry won on penalties) | National League Division 1 Final | Croke Park

Derry 2-19 1-09 Roscommon | National League Division 1 | Celtic Park

Mayo 2-13 3-15 Derry | National League Division 1 | MacHale Park

Derry 1-11 1-16 Dublin | National League Division 1 | Celtic Park

Galway 1-11 3-10 | National League Division 1 | Pearse Stadium

Derry 3-17 0-13 Monaghan | National League Division 1 | Celtic Park

Derry 1-12 0-09 Tyrone | National League Division 1 | Celtic Park

Kerry 2-08 0-15 Derry | National League Division 1 | Austin Stack Park

Analysis

The fall of Derry has been the story of this Championship.

After a fantastic league campaign which saw them crowned Division 1 champions after an epic tussle with Dublin in Croke Park in the final. A final which was settled via penalties.

Perhaps it’s a case of premature peaking for this Derry side. They looked set up to mount a serious assault on the Sam Maguire Cup after that league campaign.

In the Ulster Championship, they were taken down by a Donegal team on the rise. A surprise, but the feeling was that they could bounce back from that loss. They haven’t.

In the All-Ireland group stage, further losses against Galway and Armagh followed before a final-round win against Westmeath granted them passage into the knockout rounds.

This team just don’t look anywhere near the level they were at this spring. Whether it’s the case that Jimmy McGuinness revealed the blueprint as to how to beat Derry or they simply peaked too soon is still up for debate. What isn’t up for discussion is that they will need to raise their level significantly to take out Mayo in Castlebar this Saturday evening.

Mayo v Derry Prediction

Prediction: Mayo 2-12 1-11 Derry

I’m predicting that Mayo do enough to win this game and advance to the quarter-final.

Mayo have put in some top performances so far in this Championship but have been poor in closing out games. This lack of killer instinct that they’ve shown is worrying but Derry look like a team waiting to be out of their misery.

Mayo to pull away in the last 10 minutes.

Best Bet: Mayo to lead @ HT & Win @ 6/4

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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