Leinster v Toulouse Prediction, Preview & Odds

We have a Leinster v Toulouse prediction for you plus a breakdown of the betting odds, team news and matchups ahead of their European Champions Cup Final.

How To Watch Leinster v Toulouse

When is Leinster v Toulouse

2.45 pm, Saturday, May 25th

TV Channel

ITV 4, TNT Sports 1 and RTÉ 2

Live Stream

Those in Ireland can stream the game on the RTÉ Player. Those in the UK can stream Leinster v Toulouse on ITV X

Who are the officiating team?

Referee: Matthew Carley (England)

Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (England), Andrea Piardi (Italy)

TMO: Ian Tempest (England)

Where is Leinster v Toulouse

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Leinster v Toulouse Odds

Bothh sides can’t be separated in the betting market at the moment with Leinster and Toulouse but available at EVS while the draw in 80 minutes is priced at 18/1.

Teams News

Leinster Team News

Leinster: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Jordan Larmour, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Jamie Osborne, 11 James Lowe, 10 Ross Byrne, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Will Connors, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Jason Jenkins, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Michael Ala’alatoa, 19 James Ryan, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Ciarán Frawley, 23 Josh van der Flier

v Toulouse Team News

Toulouse: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Juan Cruz Mallia, 13 Paul Costes, 12 Pita Ahki, 11 Matthis Lebel, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont (c), 8 Alexandre Roumat, 7 Jack Willis, 6 François Cros, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Dorian Aldegheri, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Cyril Baille Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Joel Merkler, 19 Richie Arnold, 20 Joshua Brennan, 21 Paul Graou, 22 Santiago Chocobares, 23 Thomas Ramos

Leinster v Toulouse Weather Forecast

Decent conditions for rugby are expected on Saturday, with no rain and a light breeze expected.

Temperature

The temperature is predicted to be roughly 20°C throughout the game.

Wind

There is expected to be a moderate breeze in the region of 7-8 km/h a

Rain

There is expected to be a 0% chance of rain during the game.

Leinster v Toulouse Preview

Leinster Form

Leinster head into this game following another strong season this season which again puts them very much on the hunt for silverware on all fronts. In the United Rugby Championship with 17/18 of the Rounds played before the Knockout Stage, Leinster are second in the Irish Shield with 15 points 2 behind Ulster, they’re also 3rd on the overall table on 60 points, 1 behind Bulls and 3 behind Munster.

Their European Champions’ Cup journey has been similarly successful, with Leinster topping Pool D ahead of Stormers, La Rochelle, Leicester Tigers, Sale Sharks and Stade Francais with a perfect record of 4 wins from 4 matches. Those performances on 19 points, +70 and 17 tries earned them 2nd spot in the Knockout Stage seeding behind Toulouse on 20 points, +109 and 26 tries.

To reach the Semi-Final, Leinster overcame Leicester 36-22 in the Round of 16 before overcoming La Rochelle in the Quarter-Final. Leinster had a thrilling 20-17 victory against Northampton Saints in the Semi-Final where James Lowe was the difference-maker with a match-winning hat trick.

v Toulouse Form

Toulouse head into this game following another strong season this season which again puts them very much on the hunt for silverware on all fronts. In the Top 14 Championship, they have a record of 13 wins and 8 defeats currently trailing league leaders Stade Francais by 6 points.

Their European Champions’ Cup journey has been similarly successful, with Toulouse topping Pool D ahead of Harlequins, Bath, Racing 92, Ulster and Cardiff with a perfect record of 4 wins from 4 matches. Those performances meant they topped the seeding with 20 points, +109 and 26 tries scored.

To reach the Semi-Final, Toulouse then overcame Racing 92 31-7 in the Round of 16 before battering Exeter Chiefs in the Quarter-Final. Toulouse had a high-scoring victory in their 38-26 Semi success against Harlequins with Dupont the main man for them again scoring a brace of tries.

Leinster Attack v Toulouse Defence

Leinster are potent going forward, demonstrated by them being the 2nd top-scorers in the United Rugby Championship with 521 points and 76 tries an average of 30.64 points per game, albeit it’s substantially smaller than Bulls who have 613 points, 81 tries an average of 36.055 points per game.

Leinster scored 123 points in their pool an average of 30.75 points per game, and that has increased in the knockout rounds scoring 36 against Leicester and 40 against La Rochelle. However, they were restricted to 20 points against Northampton. Their top try-scorer so far this season are Dan Sheehan and Rob Russell with 7 tries and Ross Byrne is their top-scorer with 73.

Toulouse aren’t known for their watertight defence, despite being second in the Top-14 they’ve conceded the most points of the top 6 sides (469) an average of 22.33 points per game. However, they have looked stronger in the ERC conceding 69 points an average of 17.25 in their pool before conceding just 7 against Racing, 26 against Exeter and 26 against Harlequins on their way to the final.

v Toulouse Attack Leinster Defence

Toulouse are prolific on the scoresheet, in the Top-14 they’re the top-scorers with their 596 points or an average of 28.38 per game 38 more than the next most prolific attack Toulon who have 558 points. Their try total of 81 is also an impressive 14 more than the next-best side Racing 92 with 67

Across their 4 pool victories, they scored a mammoth 178 points an average of 44.5 points across their pool games.  That scoring streak continued into the knockout rounds putting 31 past Racing 92, 64 past Exeter and 38 past Harlequins.

Against Leinster, they’re coming up against a decent albeit unspectacular defence with their 343 conceded in the United Rugby Championship an average of 20.17 the 4th best in the competition.  Across their European Pool Games, they conceded only 53 points an average of 13.25 points per game.  That was followed by conceding 22 against Leicester, 13 against La Rochelle and 17 against Northampton.

Leinster v Toulouse Rugby Head-To-Head

Head-To-Head Results

2023: Leinster won 41-22 2022: Leinster 40-17 2019: Leinster won 30-12 2018: Toulouse won 28-27

Trends

Leinster have won 3 of their last 4 games against Toulouse with Leinster scoring an average of 35 points to Toulouse’s total of 20.

Key Players

Dan Sheehan– Leinster

The main man for his country (Ireland) and his province (Leinster) is Hooker Dan Sheehan (25) who is interestingly their joint top try-scorer this season with 7. However, it's far more than the try-scoring ability he brings with Sheehan being a strong ball carrier with sharp footwork and a turn of pace reminiscent of a winger.

Antoine Dupont– Toulouse

Antoine Dupont (27), France and Toulouse Captain and Scrum-Half, is the best in his position in the World and consistently shows himself to be excellent defensively with freakish strength for his size. Expect everything to go through him at the weekend and he will be the driving force behind everything good about Toulouse.

Leinster v Toulouse Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: Leinster 20-30 Toulouse

This will be Leinster’s third successive ERC Final which shows their consistency on the biggest stage. However, they’re still undergoing somewhat of a drought having not won the competition since their 15-12 victory against Racing 92 in 2018, if they win they’ll go level with Toulouse on 5 titles and would have 1 more runner-up finish with 3.

Toulouse last won the competition in 2021 when they defeated La Rochelle and their power-scoring throughout this tournament will be very difficult for Leinster to stop.

This will be an enthralling contest, but I can see Toulouse notching a narrow victory following another Dupont masterclass.

Best Bet: Toulouse @ EVS

Click Below For Our Live Leinster v Toulouse Odds

*Prices subject to fluctuation

Remember, Always Gamble Responsibly.