In this post, we bring you a Kerry v Mayo prediction plus all the odds and tips as we preview this National League Division 1 Final.
How To Watch Kerry v Mayo?
When is Kerry v Mayo?
Kerry v Mayo will throw in at 4 pm on Sunday, March 30th.
TV Channel
Kerry v Mayo will be broadcast live on TG4 with coverage following the Division 3 final.
Live Stream
In Ireland, you can stream Kerry v Mayo on TG4 Player.
Outside the island of Ireland, Kerry v Mayo can be streamed on GAAGo with a subscription or by purchasing access to stream the game.
Where is Kerry v Mayo Being Played?
Kerry v Mayo will be played in Croke Park in Drumcondra, Dublin.
Kerry v Mayo Odds
Team | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Kerry | 2/7 | 77.8% |
Mayo | 7/2 | 22.2% |
Draw | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Kerry are hot favourites going into the 2025 Allianz National League Division 1 Final at odds of 2/7.
Mayo, after topping the round robin phase of the National League, find themselves as unfancied underdogs at odds of 7/2 to win this competition for the second time in three years.
The draw after 70 minutes is priced up at 10/1.
Handicap Betting
Kerry: -4 – 5/6
Mayo: +4 – 11/10
Handicap Draw: -4 – 10/1
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Kerry v Mayo Preview
Team News
Kerry Team News
Kerry manager Jack O’Connor has made two changes to his starting team for this National League Final. In goal, Shane Ryan comes in for Shane Murphy. In midfield, Barry Dan O’Sullivan comes into the side in place of Séan O’Brien who left the Galway game due to an injury.
Mayo Team News
Mayo manager Kevin McStay has made just one change to his starting XV that beat Donegal last Sunday, a win which not only booked them this spot in the final but also at the same time, ensured they avoided relegation. Breaffy’s Davitt Neary is listed to start in the no. 10 jersey while Fenton Kelly of Davitts drops to the bench. Stephen Coen will captain the side.
Kerry’s Form
Kerry’s 2025 Results
Galway 2-19 3-24 Kerry | Round 7
Kerry 2-21 0-17 Armagh | Round 6
Mayo 0-21 1-16 Kerry | Round 5
Tyrone 2-13 3-13 Kerry | Round 4
Kerry 1-15 0-19 Dublin | Round 3
Kerry 1-18 0-23 Donegal | Round 2
Derry 1-24 5-15 Kerry
Analysis
Kerry secured their place in this Sunday’s National League Division 1 Final at Croke Park after finishing second in the round-robin phase. Like Mayo, they found themselves in relegation trouble heading into the final round but delivered when it mattered most, producing an impressive away victory over Galway. That performance not only preserved their Division 1 status for next season but also reaffirmed their attacking firepower.
While a league final may not have been their primary objective at the start of the campaign, Kerry will now be fully focused on claiming national silverware. The last time they lifted the All-Ireland title in 2022, they also dismantled Mayo in the National League Final at Croke Park. They will be looking to repeat both successes this year.
The Kingdom finished the league phase with eight points, recording four wins and three losses from their seven games. Crucially, they boasted the best scoring difference in the competition at +19, underlining their attacking threat. David Clifford remains their standout player, chipping in with three points in their last outing, while Paul Geaney is enjoying some of the best form of his career despite being in the twilight of his inter-county journey.
Paudie Clifford continues to be the team’s key playmaker, linking the play seamlessly. If Mayo can limit his influence, it would go a long way in pulling off an upset, but that is far easier said than done. Kerry have thrived under the new rules, benefiting from the extra space in attack and racking up big scores in recent weeks. However, interestingly, they have not been major proponents of the new two-point rule, failing to register a single two-pointer in their last two outings.
Mayo’s Form
Mayo’s 2025 Results
Mayo 1-18 1-16 Donegal | Round 7
Derry 1-17 2-19 Mayo | Round 6
Mayo 0-21 1-16 Kerry | Round 5
Armagh 1-17 1-17 Mayo | Round 4
Mayo 0-12 0-10 Tyrone | Round 3
Mayo 0-16 0-26 Galway | Round 2
Dublin 1-17 1-15 Mayo | Round 1
Analysis
Mayo topped the round-robin phase of the competition with nine points, recording four wins, two losses, and one draw from their seven games. Remarkably, despite finishing at the top of the table, they ended the league campaign with a negative points difference of -1.
Scoring has not been their strong suit this season, as they registered just 133 points, two fewer than bottom-placed Derry, making them the lowest-scoring team in the competition. However, their defensive solidity has been a key factor in their success. Conceding just 134 points, they averaged 19.1 points against per game, a figure that tied them for the second-best defence in the league. They will need to replicate that defensive excellence against Kerry, who have been the standout attacking force, amassing 170 points at an average of 24.3 per game—an incredible 26 points more than the next highest-scoring team.
In attack, Belmullet’s Ryan O’Donoghue continues to be Mayo’s key man. Operating in the full-forward line, he wins plenty of possession and has the ability to create scores even when chances seem limited. In midfield, Matthew Ruane has been in outstanding form, not only dictating play but also racking up impressive scoring numbers. Meanwhile, his Breaffy clubmate Davitt Neary has been the breakout star of Mayo’s campaign. He was the standout performer in their opening-round defeat to Dublin at Croke Park and, as he returns to GAA headquarters, he is likely to pose another major threat to the Kerry defence.
Kerry v Mayo Head-To-Head
Mayo 0-21 1-16 Kerry | 2025 National League
Kerry 0-16 0-15 Mayo | 2024 National League
Kerry 0-17 1-19 Mayo | 2023 All-Ireland Group Stage
Mayo 2-14 1-10 Kerry | 2023 National League
Kerry 1-18 0-13 Mayo | 2022 All-Ireland Quarter-Final
Mayo have had the better of recent encounters between these two counties with 3 wins from their last 5 games against Kerry.
Kerry, however, have won the big games at Croke Park where they beat Mayo in 2022 in both the National League Final and in an All-Ireland Quarter-Final.
Kerry v Mayo Prediction
Prediction: Kerry 1-18 Mayo 2-17
Mayo to win by two points.
While Kerry rightly carry the favourites tag, their odds appear far too short, especially considering that Mayo already got the better of them earlier this month. The wide-open expanses of Croke Park should play to Kerry’s strengths in attack, but Mayo’s improved defence could limit their scoring opportunities.
From a betting perspective, the value lies with Mayo, who look well-positioned to spring a surprise. Odds of 7/2 are too big for me to pass up here.
Best Bet: Mayo to win – 7/2
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