In this post, we have a Kerry v Donegal prediction for you ahead of what promises to be a thrilling 2025 All-Ireland Football Final. This clash at Croke Park on Sunday pits two Gaelic football heavyweights against each other, with Kerry seeking to reclaim the Sam Maguire after a three-year drought and Donegal, under Jim McGuinness, aiming for their first title since 2012.
The two counties have a brief but storied rivalry, with memorable encounters like Donegal’s 2012 quarter-final victory over Kerry (1-12 to 1-10) en route to their All-Ireland title and Kerry’s revenge coming in the 2014 final (2-9 to 0-12). Expect a tactical battle, with the first All-Ireland Final under the new Gaelic football rules, such as the two-point arc for long-range scores, making this a historical occasion in the history of Ireland’s national sport.
Below you will find everything you need to know ahead of the big game, including: team form, key players, team news, betting odds, and tips.
Match Details
Kerry v Donegal Match Details – 2025 All-Ireland Football Final
Date : Sunday, 27 July
Throw-in : 3:30 PM
Venue : Croke Park, Dublin
Broadcast : RTÉ 2, RTÉ Player, BBC Two. gaaplus.ie will provide coverage of the game for those outside of Ireland.
Referee : Brendan Cawley
Betting Odds
Kerry v Donegal Odds – 2025 All-Ireland Football Final Betting
Team | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Kerry | Evens | 50.0% |
Donegal | 6/5 | 45.5% |
Draw | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Kerry are slight favourites at evens to win this All-Ireland SFC Final in 70 minutes.
Donegal, at 6/5, are the ‘outsiders’ for this one. However, what these odds really tell us is that the oddsmakers are finding it very hard to split these two teams and that a close-fought final is a very likely outcome.
Sam Maguire Odds – To Lift The Trophy
Kerry are 4/5 favourites to climb the steps of the Hogan Stand on Sunday evening and lift the Sam Maguire trophy.
Donegal are evens odds to be crowned 2025 All-Ireland SFC champions.
Handicap Betting
Kerry -1 – 5/4
Donegal +1 – 4/5
In the handicap betting, Kerry are 1-point favourites and can be backed at odds of 5/4. That means that they will need to win the game by 2 or more points to deliver for handicap backers.
Team by Team Breakdown
Team By Team Preview
Kerry
Path to the Final
Kerry have navigated a challenging but successful 2025 All-Ireland Senior Football Championship campaign, playing eight Championship matches with seven wins and one loss.
Here is Kerry’s path to the 2025 All-Ireland SFC Final
Munster SFC Semi-Final: Cork 1-25 Kerry 3-21 (after extra-time)
Munster SFC Final: Clare 0-21 Kerry 4-20
All-Ireland Group Stage Round 1: Kerry 3-18 Roscommon 0-17
All-Ireland Group Stage Round 2: Cork 0-20 Kerry 1-28
All-Ireland Group Stage Round 3: Kerry 0-16 Meath 1-22
All-Ireland Preliminary Quarter-Final: Kerry 3-20 Cavan 1-17
All-Ireland Quarter-Final: Kerry 0-32, Armagh 1-21
All-Ireland Semi-Final: Kerry 1-20 Tyrone 0-17
Strengths
Kerry’s attack, the Championship’s deadliest, is led by David Clifford (1-9 vs. Tyrone, 0-7 vs. Armagh) and Sean O’Shea (0-3 vs. Tyrone, 0-12 vs. Armagh). They are 1st and 4th in this championship’s top scoring rankings, respectively. Clifford has notched up a total of 8-53 in 8 outings, an average of 9.6 a game. O’Shea has 1-44 to his credit, which works out to an average of 6.7 points per game.
Beyond their two star scoring forwards, Paudie Clifford’s playmaking and Paul Geaney’s finishing (whether from the start or off the bench) add depth. The Kingdom will need their top attackers performing at their best to poke holes in an ultra-disciplined Donegal defence.
Their kick-out press has also proven suffocating for the opposition. Armagh found out the hard way in their quarter-final against Kerry when their struggles to retain ball off their own kick-out were ultimately the catalyst for a massive defeat. Kerry players work hard, aided by the new kick-out rules that require the kick-out to travel past the 40-metre arc, to ensure no easy short kick-outs are available. This forces opposition goalkeepers to go long into contests where the Kingdom, with the likes of Joe O’Connor, Mark O’Shea, and Sean O’Brien, have cleaned up.
Donegal ‘keeper, Shaun Patton, is one of the best in the game, but he did look vulnerable on the kick-out in the first half against Monaghan in their quarter-final. One of his errant short kick-outs on that day led directly to a Monaghan goal.
Big game experience is on Kerry’s side here with a large part of this current squad having an All-Ireland medal in their back pocket from their 2022 Sam Maguire-winning campaign. Many of their key players were also part of their 2019 All-Ireland Final draw and replay loss to Dublin.
Weaknesses
Kerry’s flaws surfaced in their group-stage loss to Meath (0-16 to 1-22) against high-pressing teams. They lean heavily on Clifford and O’Shea; Donegal’s Brendan McCole and Peadar Mogan could neutralise them, testing the supporting cast. The half-back line can at times struggle with pacey runners, as Meath exposed in transition.
Kerry’s intense kick-out press risks late-game fatigue, which Donegal’s counter-attacks could exploit in a tight finish, potentially tipping the scales. If Donegal can find the antidote to this press, then it could leave Kerry vulnerable at the back. Donegal goalkeeper Shaun Patton also has one of the biggest kicks in the country, which will offer them more options to bypass this press.
Motivation
Kerry burn for the Sam Maguire, last won in 2022 – a three-year gap that stings in the Kingdom, such are the expectations in that part of the world. Jack O’Connor, in his third stint, aims to topple Ulster’s best, driven by old rivalries and a perception that Kerry struggle in the big games against Ulster sides. This squad chases what would be a 39th title, which would put them 8 titles ahead of Dublin, to cement their unrivalled record as the most successful county in the sport.
Donegal
Path to the Final
Donegal have battled through a tough 2025 All-Ireland Senior Football Championship, playing 11 matches with 10 wins and one loss – a relentless run to the final.
Ulster SFC Preliminary Round : Donegal 1-25 Derry 1-15
Ulster SFC Quarter-Final : Monaghan 0-21 Donegal 0-23
Ulster SFC Semi-Final : Donegal 1-19 Down 0-16
Ulster SFC Final : Armagh 0-28 Donegal 2-23 (after extra-time)
All-Ireland Group Stage Round 1 : Donegal 0-20 Tyrone 2-17
All-Ireland Group Stage Round 2 : Cavan 1-13 Donegal 3-26
All-Ireland Group Stage Round 3 : Mayo 1-15 Donegal 0-19
All-Ireland Preliminary Quarter-Final : Donegal 2-22 Louth 0-12
All-Ireland Quarter-Final : Monaghan 1-20 Donegal 1-26
All-Ireland Semi-Final : Donegal 3-26 Meath 0-15
Strengths
Donegal’s attack, powered by Michael Murphy (0-6 vs. Meath) and Oisín Gallen (1-2 in the semi-final), pairs with a stingy defence led by full-back Brendan McCole, conceding one goal in five games.
Jim McGuinness’s tactical nous shines, with the half-back line of Ryan McHugh, Peadar Mogan, and Eoghan Bán Gallagher driving transitions and always reliable to pop up for a couple of points throughout the game.
Their kick-out retention, led by goalkeeper Shaun Patton, was exceptional against Meath in the semi-final. Patton’s ability to launch the ball to and beyond the opposing ‘45 metre line gives an extra dimension to how Donegal can attack the aggressive Kerry press.
Weaknesses
An over-reliance on Murphy and Gallen to keep the scoreboard ticking over could falter if Kerry’s backs, like Jason Foley, lock them down. Especially when you consider that Murphy is in his twilight years (coming out of retirement before this campaign) and Gallen has been notably inconsistent, mixing flashes of brilliance with quieter periods throughout this All-Ireland campaign.
A thinner bench and high-intensity running style risks late-game fatigue against Kerry’s depth and preference for kick-passing football.
In truth, Donegal don’t have many glaring weaknesses; they are a well-oiled machine in which the unit is greater than the sum of its parts.
Motivation
Donegal crave the Sam Maguire, absent since 2012, fueled by last year’s surprise semi-final defeat to Galway. Michael Murphy, nearing 36, hunts a second title, while Jim McGuinness looks to cement his legacy in the hills of Donegal by leading his native county to an All-Ireland title for the second time (3rd in total).
Head-to-Head
Kerry v Donegal Head-to-Head Rivalry
When it comes to Gaelic football, few clashes carry as much intensity as Kerry versus Donegal. Despite their storied traditions, these two counties have only met three times in the All-Ireland Championship, with every single encounter taking place at Croke Park.
Their first meeting came on 5 August 2012 , in an All-Ireland Quarter-Final . Donegal emerged victorious, defeating Kerry with a scoreline of Donegal 1-12 Kerry 1-10 . This result was part of Donegal’s march toward their 2nd ever All-Ireland title.
The second clash was in the All-Ireland Final on 21 September 2014 . Kerry got their revenge, winning the Sam Maguire with a composed performance, finishing Kerry 2-9 Donegal 0-12 .
Their most recent championship showdown came on 21 July 2019 , during the Super 8s round-robin stage . On that day, the teams couldn’t be separated, producing a thrilling draw : Kerry 1-20 Donegal 1-20 .
Overall Championship Record
Kerry wins : 1
Donegal wins : 1
Draws : 1
From Donegal's tactical breakthrough in 2012, to Kerry’s ultimate triumph two years later, and a dead-even duel in 2019, these encounters have offered quality football in rare doses. When these two counties meet, they provide us with thrilling encounters.
Key Players
Key Players to Watch
Kerry
David Clifford : The talisman. His scoring ability and creativity make him a defender’s nightmare.
Sean O’Shea : Versatile and lethal from distance, a game-changer with his kicking.
Paudie Clifford : The playmaker. Makes this Kerry squad tick and is crucial in transitioning defence into attack.
Donegal
Michael Murphy : The leader. His aerial dominance, free-taking and clutch scoring are vital.
Ryan McHugh : Energy and ball skills make him a dynamic threat from the half-back line.
Oisín Gallen: Brilliant but inconsistent. One of the best inside forwards in the country when on song.
Betting Tips
Kerry v Donegal Betting Tips
Sean O’Shea to score 7+ points – 13/10
Sean O’Shea has been a scoring machine this championship, averaging 6.7 points per game across eight outings (1-44 total). With Donegal’s defence likely zoning in on David Clifford, O’Shea could exploit the extra space. His pinpoint accuracy from frees and ability to nail two-point scores under the new rules make this a cracking bet at 13/10.
Kerry to win in 70 minutes – Evens
Kerry’s red-hot form – seven wins in eight games, including a dismantling of Armagh (0-32 to 1-21) and Tyrone (1-20 to 0-17) – marks them as the team to beat. Their attack, powered by Clifford and O’Shea, is the deadliest in the championship, and their 2022 All-Ireland winners bring big-game nous. At evens, this is a solid bet for a side with the edge in firepower and experience.
Prediction & Best Bet
Kerry v Donegal Prediction – 2025 All-Ireland SFC Final
Kerry 1-23 Donegal 2-18
Kerry’s attack, led by Clifford (8-53 this championship) and Sean O’Shea, should rack up points, boosted by the two-point arc rule. Donegal, with Michael Murphy and Oisín Gallen firing, have goal-scoring pedigree, evidenced by their 3-26 semi-final haul against Meath. Make no mistake about it, these are the two best sides in the country. With that said, a two-point Kerry win feels right here; The Kingdom’s attacking firepower will likely be just too much for Donegal to keep up with.
Best Bet: Kerry to win in 70 minutes – Evens
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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