Italy v Wales Prediction, Tips, & Best Bet – Six Nations

We have an Italy v Wales prediction for you plus a breakdown of the betting odds, team news and matchups ahead of what could be a Wooden Spoon decider in the Six Nations Championship.

How To Watch Italy v Wales

When is Italy v Wales

2.15 pm, Saturday, February 8th

TV Channel

ITV 1, S4C

Who are the officiating team?

Referee: Matthew Carley (England)

Assistant Referees: Paul Williams (New Zealand), Sam Grove-White (Scotland)

TMO: Eric Gauzins (France)

FPRO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)

Where is Italy v Wales

Millenium Stadium Cardiff

Italy v Wales Odds

Italy are currently priced at 4/11 to win this game.

Wales are outsiders with odds of 21/10 and the draw is seen as a 25/1 chance.

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Match Betting Enhanced

Italy @ 2/5

Wales @ 11/5

Draw @ 25/1

Handicap Betting

Italy: -7 @ 10/11

Wales +7 @ 10/11

Handicap Draw: -7 @ 18/1

Team News

Italy Team News

Wales Team News

Wales Starting 15: L Williams; Rogers, Tompkins, James, Adams; B Thomas, T Williams; G Thomas, Lloyd, H Thomas, Rowlands, Jenkins, Botham, Morgan, Faletau.

Replacements: Dee, Smith, Assiratti, F Thomas, Wainwright, R Williams, Edwards, Murray

Italy v Wales Preview

Italy’s Form

Italy put on an impressive showing in the 2024 Six Nations Championship only losing to England by 3 points in a 24-27 thriller defeating the Scots 31-29 in another drawing 13-13 against France and beating Wales 21-24. Their only poor showing was a 36-0 defeat to Ireland in their opening game.

During the summer they lost to Samoa but beat Tonga and Japan to continue their strong form and in the Autumn Internationals despite an opening 18-50 loss to Argentina they recovered to beat Georgia 20-17 and only lost 11-29 to New Zealand.

In their opening Six Nations fixture of 2025, they fell to a 31-19 defeat against Scotland at Murrayfield. However, Italy were competitive and early in the second half were only 19-12 down before falling away toward the end of the game.

One thing is for sure and that’s the fact Italy can no longer be considered as the Six Nations' designated “whipping boys” and have come on leaps and bounds since former Stade Francais coach Gonzalo Quesada was appointed last year and their status as favourites ahead of this game is borderline unprecedented but more than deserved.

Wales’ Form

The Welsh had a miserable 2024 Six Nations campaign losing 5 of their 5 games for a points difference of -51. This meant they earned the unwanted title of being the Wooden Spoon for the second time in the Six Nations era (2003 too) finishing with only 4 points and a considerable 7 back of second from bottom Italy who they were defeated by 21-24.

Ahead of this Six Nations campaign, they had lost 12 successive matches losing to South Africa, and Australia twice in the summer and in November losing 5 points against Fiji before being convincingly beaten by South Africa and Australia again.  In their opening match of the tournament, their miserable run extended to 13 defeats when a ruthless France side left them scoreless in a 43-0 demolition at the Stade de France.

Warren Gatland is the nation's most successful coach for his record during his first tenure from 2007-2019 where he won the Six Nations with them in 2008, 2012, 2013 and 2019 including a Grand Slam in 2012 and 2019. However, this is his toughest test yet to overcome a very difficult period in the country's history and ahead of the tournament 17 of his players had been capped 10 times or less at Senior Level for Wales.

Italy v Wales Rugby Head-To-Head

All-Time Head-To-Head Record

Italy and Wales have played each other at rugby union in 33 matches since 1994, with Italy winning 4 times, Wales winning 28 times and 1 draw taking place.

Head-To-Head Results Last Five Matches

2024: Italy won 21-24 in the Principality

2023: Wales won 17-29  in the Stadio Olimpico

2022: Italy won 21-22 in the Principality

2021: Wales won 7-48 in the Stadio Olimpico

2020: Wales won 38-18  in Parc y Scarlets

Trends

Italy have won two of their four matches against Wales in the last three years.

Key Players

Tommaso Menoncello – Italy

Italy have become a more competitive force on the Tier 1 Rugby scene in recent seasons in large part to the emergence of many talented young rugby players. One of those players is Benetton Centre/Winger Tommaso Menoncello who despite being only 22 has already amassed 30 points across his 22 Senior tests with Italy.

He is strong, fast with brilliant technique and his talents were awarded the Six Nations Player of the Tournament in 2024 becoming the youngest player to do so at 21. That form continued into their opening game against the Scots where he was constantly breaking the Scottish tackles and line.

Josh Adams – Wales

The 29-year-old Welsh wing wizard Josh Adams will arguably be their biggest try threat on Friday Night having accumulated 105 points from his 6p caps at Senior Level for Wales since debuting in 2018.

He returned to the Wales side following 12 months away from International Rugby last weekend and was unable to break through the French defence. However, he remains a try threat and should get more opportunities against the Italian defence on Saturday.

Italy v Wales Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: Italy 22-15 Wales

Italy can no longer be underestimated in the Six Nations and despite their defeat last weekend their recent good record against Wales as well as home status means that they’re favourites.

Wales are having a torrid time failing to even get on the scoresheet last weekend, but they do have attacking talent with the likes of Williams and Adams who should find more joy against Italy.

Italy are justifiably favourites which would’ve been inconceivable not so long ok, but I can still see this being a close game.

Best Bet: Match Total Under 41.5 Points @ 6/4

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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