We have an Italy v Germany prediction for you plus a breakdown of the betting odds, team news and matchups ahead of their Nations League Quarter-Final first leg.
Italy finished second in their Nations League Group 2 behind France by a goal difference of +1 but ahead of Scotland and Poland.
Germany topped their Nations League group going unbeaten to finish ahead of Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
How To Watch Italy v Germany
When is Italy v Germany?
Italy v Germany is on Thursday at 7.45 pm
TV Channel
Virgin Media 2
Where is Italy v Germany Being Played?
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, Italy
Italy v Germany Odds – Nations League
Team | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Italy | 8/5 | 38.5% |
Germany | 13/8 | 38.1% |
Draw | 11/5 | 31.3% |
Italy are priced at 8/5 to win this game.
Italy to win – 8/5
Germany are priced at 13/8 while the draw is an 11/5 shot.
Germany to win – 13/8
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Handicap Betting
Italy -1 @ 9/2
Germany: +1 @ 4/9
Handicap Draw: -1 @ 16/5
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Italy v Germany Preview
Italy’s Form
Luciano Spalletti has been manager of Italy since the summer of 2023 following the unexpected resignation of Roberto Mancini. Before taking the job Luciano had a 30+ year coaching career including most recently managing Napoli from 2021-2023 but this is his first foray into international management. His record has been respectable so far with 11 wins and 5 draws from 20 matches for a win rate of 55%.
The strength of this Italian side even more so than previously comes in their defensive positions with with Bastoni and Buongiorno likely to occupy 2 of the 3 central defender positions. Uniquely though their primary attacking threat also comes from defenders/wing backs with Di Lorenzo, and Udogie among others in reserve capable of causing damage going forward too. Barella and Tonali provide perfect balance centrally though they lack a “Top Class” striker to balance the side out.
This Italian side will be difficult to break down though, I question if it has the attacking talent to break down the German defence.
Italy’s Last Five Results
Italy 1-3 France | November 17th | Loss
Belgium 0-1 Italy | November 14th | Win
Italy 4-1 Israel | October 14th | Win
Italy 2-2 Belgium | October 10th | Draw
Israel 1-2 Italy | September 9th | Win
2 Wins, 2 Draws and 1 Loss
Germany’s Form
Germany has been managed by Nagelsmann since September 2023 replacing Hansi Flick who was sacked; he became their second youngest coach ever at 36 (now 37). Though young he has extensive experience managing since 2016 for varying spells with Hoffenheim, Leipzig and Bayern before assuming the Germany role. He’s had a solid start with 11 wins and 5 draws from 19 games for a win rate of 57.89%.
This German squad is going through a change these last 12 months with the retirements of iconic figures Neuer, Kross, Gundogan and Muller. However, they retain experience in Kimmich, Rudiger, Sane and Goretzka all well north of 50 caps. The new guard aren’t bad either with Musiala and Adeyemi from the current squad exciting footballers though they could likely do with further youth integration.
Though their sole defeat in 2024 was after extra-time losing 2-1 to Spain you get the impression against the “better sides” they still haven’t found their confidence yet.
Germany's Last Five Results
Hungary 1-1 Germany | November 19th | Draw
Germany 7-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | November 16th | Win
Germany 1-0 Netherlands | October 14th | Win
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-2 Germany | October 11th | Win
Netherlands 2-2 Germany | September 10th | Draw
3 Wins and 2 Draws
Italy v Germany Predicted Lineups
Italy Predicted Starting XI (3-5-1-1)
GK: Donnarumma
RCB: Di Lorenzo, CB: Buongiorno, LCB: Bastoni
RM: Cambiaso, CM: Frattesi, CM: Rovella, CM: Tonali, LM: Udogie
AM: Barella
CF: Retegui
Germany Predicted Starting XI (4-2-3-1)
GK: Nubel
RB: Kimmich, CB: Rudiger, CB: Schlotterbeck, LB: Mittelstaedt
CM: Andrich, CM: Gross
RW: Sane, AM: Musiala, LW: Adeyemi
CF: Kleindienst
Italy v Germany Head-To-Head Results & Stats
All-Time Head-To-Head Record
Italy wins: 15
Germany wins: 10
Draws: 12
Head-To-Head Results
Germany 5-2 Italy | Nations League | June 14th, 2022
Italy 1-1 Germany | Nations League | June 4th, 2022
Italy 0-0 Germany | Friendly | November 15th, 2016
Germany 1-1 Italy | Euro 2016 | July 2nd, 2016
Germany 4-1 Italy | Friendly | March 29th, 2016
Key Players To Watch
Nicolò Barella – Italy
The 28-year-old who plays his club football with Inter is one of the most rounded central midfielders in World Football and has formed and has been integral for Italy since debuting in 2018 he’s appeared 59 times and has scored 10 goals.
His role in this game will be interesting though tenacious in defensive areas and capable of playing deeper for this game he will need to be more of an attacking outlet for Italy through set-pieces, through balls and even taking shots from outside the box. He is 11/1 to score first and 5/1 to score at any point.
Barella Anytime Goal – 5/1
Jamal Musiala – Germany
The former England Underage attacker and Bayern Munich footballer Musiala (21) is one of the best-attacking midfielder/winger in the world right now with his elite dribbling, passing and general defensive contribution. This season for Bayern he has 17 goals and 7 assists in 38 matches.
Since the switch to Germany in 2021 he’s already become integral to the nation he’s scored 7 times and assisted 8 goals in 38 matches. He is priced at 8/1 to score first and 3/1 to score at any point in the game.
Musiala Anytime Goal – 3/1
Italy v Germany Prediction & Best Bet
Prediction: Italy 0-2 Germany
Germany seem to have all the tools for a strong side albeit lacking a Superstar striker to balance the team out.
Italy look solid defensively but has similar issues lacking a top talent to lead the line.
I’m expecting Germany to do enough to win even if away from home.
Best Bet: Germany Win + Under 3.5 Total Goals @ 12/5
Germany Win + Under 3.5 Total Goals – 12/5
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*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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