Ahead of the Irish Presidential Election on Friday, the 24th of October, we have previewed Heather Humphreys’ odds of becoming the next President of Ireland.
Ireland’s current President, Michael D. Higgins, was first elected to the role in 2011 before he sought a second term in 2018. He retained office, winning the election with 55.8% of the votes.
The role will change hands in 2025 when Higgins’ second term comes to an end, as an Irish President can’t hold office for more than two terms. This piece breaks down everything you need to know about the candidate, including betting odds, background, policy platform, poll analysis and what could swing the vote.
Who Will Be The Next President Of Ireland?
Next President of Ireland Odds
Next President of Ireland Odds
Candidate | Odds | Chance of Winning |
|---|---|---|
Catherine Connolly | 1/9 | 90% |
Heather Humphries | 11/2 | 15.4% |
Catherine Connolly’s odds have plummeted from double digits in September to an incredibly short 1/9 to become the next President of Ireland after Sinn Féin's September 20 endorsement, Jim Gavin's October 7 withdrawal and recent debates and interviews has straggling back at odds of 11/2.
Who Is Heather Humphries?
Who Is Heather Humphries?
Heather Humphreys has been a Fine Gael TD for Cavan-Monaghan since 2011, retiring from the Dáil in 2024 after serving as deputy leader.
A former credit union manager from a Protestant farming family in rural Monaghan, she rose quickly through the ranks, becoming a cabinet mainstay with roles including Minister for Arts, Heritage and the Gaeltacht (2014-2016), Minister for Business, Enterprise and Innovation (2017-2020), Minister for Social Protection (2020-2024), and Minister for Rural and Community Development (2022-2024).
As a practising Presbyterian from a border county, her background has shaped her focus on cross-community reconciliation.
How Did She Secure A Nomination?
How Did She Secure A Nomination?
Announcing her bid on August 18, 2025, after Fine Gael reopened nominations following Mairead McGuinness's withdrawal on health grounds, Humphreys was confirmed as the party's candidate the next day.
She launched her campaign on September 19, securing overwhelming support from Fine Gael councillors and securing the required 20+ Oireachtas nominations through her established party networks and cross-border appeal.
What Is Her Policy Platform?
What Is Her Policy Platform?
Ahead of polling next Friday, her pitch for the people of Ireland centres around "unity and community," drawing from her Monaghan roots and decades of ministerial service.
Humphreys envisions a presidency of "conciliatory leadership," promoting Irish neutrality while strengthening EU partnerships for trade and security, and advocating for balanced diplomacy that builds bridges with Northern Ireland's unionist communities. She supports a gradual path to a united Ireland through reconciliation and shared prosperity, rather than rushed referendums, and champions rural development, housing affordability, and social protections—highlighting achievements like the auto-enrolment pension scheme and "Our Rural Future" policy.
A strong advocate for women's rights and equality, she has backed progressive reforms on marriage and healthcare access. With deep ties to business and agriculture, she pledges to amplify rural and border voices on the global stage.
Poll Analysis
Poll Analysis: Where Will She Get Votes?
Humphreys trails in recent polling, with the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A (October 16, conducted October 12-14) placing her at 20% first preferences, behind Connolly's 38% by 18 points.
This marks a slight decline from her 25% in the Business Post/Red C (October 11, conducted October 2-7), where she was 11 points behind Connolly's 36%. Earlier, the Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks (October 5) had her at 23%, trailing Connolly's 32% by 9 points.
Key to who becomes the next Irish President will be where the remaining Jim Gavin 5% preferences go (down from 12-15% pre-withdrawal), but simulations project that Humphreys will earn around 50% of his transfers (from centrists), vs. Connolly's 50% (urban lefties), pushing her to a competitive 42% in runoffs.
Strong in border counties and rural areas (35%+), she leads among older voters and undecideds (potentially 40% from the 18%), while capturing solid Fine Gael bases in the midlands and southeast
What Could Swing It?
What Could Swing It?
In her favour, Heather’s candidacy has solidified Fine Gael's centrist coalition support, uniting moderates disillusioned with left-wing shifts, and her platform on stability and reconciliation should mobilise rural and Protestant voters, including cross-border outreach.
What could go against her includes critics spotlighting Fine Gael's record on housing and health crises during her ministerial tenure, her family's historical Orange Order links drawing unionist scrutiny in a united Ireland debate, and perceived establishment ties alienating independents. Controversies like the 2014 IMMA board appointment and Brexit-era border policy missteps have also surfaced.
Irish Presidential Election Tips
Irish Presidential Election Tips
At 11/2, Humphreys' outright win offers strong value for underdogs—Paddy's early payout could trigger on centrist surges. In a runoff, her implied transfer odds from Gavin hold if moderates consolidate.
Humphreys' centrist stability (EU trade, rural dev) contrasts Connolly's progressive edge (neutrality, Palestine). Polls give Connolly 38% first prefs to Humphreys' 20%, but transfers favour the Fine Gaeler from Gavin.
Humphreys wins borders and seniors (35%); Connolly urban youth (45%). Bookies see Humphreys' position as a potential upset play at 11/2 (15% implied win), especially if undecideds (18%) swing toward stability amid economic concerns.
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*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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