Grand National Trends: Your Ultimate Guide Ahead of Aintree's Big…

In this post, we are bringing you the key Grand National trends to be aware of ahead of the world’s most famous horse race at Aintree this Saturday.

The Grand National at Aintree is the ultimate test of stamina and jumping ability for horses. As we approach the 2025 renewal, reigning champion I Am Maximus leads the betting at 6/1 as he looks to defend his title for Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend. A winner of the Irish Grand National in 2023, he has already proven himself over marathon distances.

Challenging him at the top of the market are Stumptown (8/1) , trained by Gavin Cromwell, and Iroko (8/1) , trained by O Greenall & J Guerriero. Meanwhile, Hewick (10/1) , trained by John 'Shark' Hanlon, will be looking to capitalise on drying ground conditions at Aintree.

While the Grand National is notoriously unpredictable, historical trends can provide us with some valuable clues into the profile of a likely winner. Below, we take a deep dive into the key statistics that have defined past champions and may help pinpoint the 2025 winner.

Grand National Trends Ahead of 2025 Aintree Renewal

Age & Experience Trends

The last nine winners have been aged between 7 and 9 years old.
Historically, 25 of the last 31 winners have been 9 years old or older.
Noble Yeats' win in 2022 was the first by a 7-year-old since 1940, showing that younger horses rarely succeed.
No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969.
14 of the last 16 winners were having their first run in the Grand National.

Trainer & Breeding Trends

Six of the last eight winners have been trained in Ireland.
18 of the last 23 Grand National winners were bred in Ireland.
16 of the past 22 winners had at least one run at Aintree before winning the National.

Weight Trends

The last eight winners carried between 10st 3lbs and 11st 6lbs.
Since 1978, just two winners have carried more than 11st 5lbs.
21 of the last 28 winners carried 10st 12lbs or less.
In last year’s Grand National, the first four horses carried between 11st 2 lbs and 11st 6 lbs which suggests higher weights mightn’t be as detrimental as they once were.
Red Rum in 1974 was the last horse to win this famous race carrying top weight.

Form & Recent Runs

31 of the last 33 winners had their last race no more than 55 days before the Grand National.
12 of the past 13 winners had at least three previous runs during the season.
10 of the last 13 winners had seven or more outings over three miles or longer.
21 of the last 23 winners of the big race have fallen or unseated their rider no more than twice during their careers.
6 of the last 20 winners won their last race before the Grand National.
6 of the last 10 winners of the National ran at Cheltenham.

Odds & Betting Trends

Five of the last six winners were priced at 11/1 or lower.
38 of the last 50 winners had starting prices of 25/1 or shorter.
Mon Mome (2009) was the most recent 100/1 winner, which remains the longest winning odds for Aintree’s big race.
Only 4 horses since 1961 have won the Grand National after winning at Cheltenham that same season.