The Open Championship tips: Back Matt Fitzpatrick @ 11/1

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Tournament Name: The Open Championship | Dates: Jul 16-19

Course: Royal Birkdale Golf Club, Southport

Par: 70 | Yardage: 7,223 | Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler

Royal Birkdale hosts The Open for the 11th time in the tournament's 154-year history, having last staged the event in 2017. Often regarded as the best course in England , the Merseyside links has changed dramatically since Jordan Spieth claimed the Claret Jug here nine years ago, having undergone a major revamp between 2023 and 2025.

2026 The Open Championship Prediction

Betting Odds

2026 The Open Betting Odds

Player

Odds

Implied Chance

Rory McIlroy

13/2

13.3%

Scottie Scheffler

13/2

13.3%

Matt Fitzpatrick

11/1

8.3%

Tommy Fleetwood

12/1

7.7%

Jon Rahm

18/1

5.3%

Xander Schauffele

18/1

5.3%

BAR

20/1

4.8%

McIlroy and Scheffler to respond?

Big two looking to bounce back

Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler must put chastening experiences at the Scottish Open behind them as they turn their attentions to the 154th Open at Birkdale , where Matt Fitzpatrick could be the man to watch. McIlroy had been firmly in contention at the halfway point at the Renaissance Club only to suffer a miserable third-round 73 - the worst 18-hole score of any player who finished in the top 30.

The world number two rediscover his touch on the last day, shooting a six-under-par 64, but the damage had been done and he had to settle for a share of seventh place, five shots behind winner Tom Kim.

McIlroy said: “It's nice to sign this week off with a good score but I know I need to do a bit of work between now and Thursday to feel really comfortable with my game. But I don't feel like it's too far away. There's definitely some positive signs.”

While the six-time major winner was left to rue his Saturday showing in North Berwick , the world’s leading player did not even manage to make the weekend in what was one of the shocks of the season.

Scheffler had not missed the cut for 78 consecutive PGA Tour tournaments - a run stretching back nearly four years - while he had not even finished outside the top 25 since the 2024 BMW Championship.

However, he had a rare free weekend after rounds of 68 and 72 left him level par, although the 30-year-old American does not feel he is in bad shape heading into his Open defence. He said: “I didn't really feel like I played that bad. This golf course can be just tough at times."

14/1
● LIVE ODDS Matt Fitzpatrick Tournament Outright

Scheffler is 13/2 joint favourite with BOYLE Sports to become the first player to win back-to-back Open titles since Padraig Harrington in 2008. McIlroy is also 13/2 to add to his 2014 Open win and he finished fourth the last time the event was staged at Birkdale in 2017, when Spieth walked off with the Claret Jug .

However, our tip to win the year’s final major is Matt Fitzpatrick , who can be backed at 11/1 .

Fitzpatrick , 31, still only has one major title in his collection, the 2022 US Open , but he finished fourth at Portrush 12 months ago and is enjoying the best year of his career. The world number three has claimed victories at the Valspar Championship , RBC Heritage and Zurich Classic as well as finishing runner-up at the Players and Canadian Open .

His last four tournaments have seen the Englishman finish second in Canada , 22nd at the US Open , fourth at the Travelers and then joint third at the Scottish Open over the weekend.

Speaking this week, Fitzpatrick said: “I've been playing nicely this year. Had that consistency, which is key for a good season. Yeah, game feels good. Hopefully I've not peaked yet obviously, but I just think I'm doing a lot of good stuff this year. Short game's been really, really good, and so has my irons.”

14/1
● LIVE ODDS Tommy Fleetwood Tournament Outright

Other Contenders

Other Contenders

Compatriot Tommy Fleetwood , who was born just down the road in Southport , is another player who should shine at Birkdale and he is 12/1 to win his first major this week.

Of the other leading contenders, 2023 runner-up Jon Rahm and 2024 champion Xander Schauffele are both 18/1 , while the in-form Chris Gotterup is worth considering at 20/1 and is 13/2 for a top-five finish .

Gotterup was third at th e 2025 Open - comfortably his best finish at a major - while he has won three titles so far this year. The 26-year-old American was also one shot off the lead heading into the fourth round of the Scottish Open before seeing his title defence end with a disappointing 71.

13/2
● LIVE ODDS Chris Gotterup Top 5 Finish

Betting Tips

The Open Betting Tips

Matt Fitzpatrick to win @ 11/1

Tommy Fleetwood to win @ 12/1

Chris Gotterup top-five finish @ 13/2

Simply click/tap on the above betting tips to add to your betslip.

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BOYLE Sports Team · Betting Experts

Not all opinions are equal. The BOYLE Sports Team is made up of experts who know the sports and betting world inside out, delivering the kind of insights and analysis that give you a real edge where it matters most.

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