Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship prediction: Tommy Fleetwood 6/1 to land prize

RD69 GE
BOYLE Sports Team · Betting Experts

Tournament Name: Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship

Course: Yas Links GC, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Par: 72 | Yardage: 7,468 | Defending champion: Aaron Rai

The Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship is the penultimate tournament of the DP World Tour season and sees the top 70 available players from the Race to Dubai standings begin their play-off challenge. The top 50 finishers at Yas Links will then compete at the season-ending DP World Tour Championship.

Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship Prediction - DP World Tour 2026

Betting Odds

Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship Betting Odds

Player

Odds

Implied Chance

Rory McIlroy

5/1

16.7%

Tommy Fleetwood

6/1

14.3%

Adam Scott

10/1

9.1%

Jon Rahm

11/1

8.3%

BAR

12/1

7.7%

*Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.

McIlroy eyes Dubai boost

McIlroy eyeing Dubai boost heading into play-offs

Rory McIlroy’s bid to win a fifth successive Harry Vardon Trophy as Europe’s number one player is under threat as he returns to action at the Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship . McIlroy heads to Yas Links Golf Course for the penultimate tournament of the DP World Tour season lying third in the Race to Dubai standings with 3,144.86 points.

Second-placed Patrick Reed is just over 300 points ahead of the world number two but in-form Spaniard Eugenio Chacarra boasts a significant advantage, having accumulated 4,143.89 points from what has been a breakthrough season for the 26-year-old.

However, there is still all to play for as 70 of the tour's leading players descend on the United Arab Emirates , with the top 50 then going on to compete in the season-ending DP World Tour Championships in Dubai.

The champion this week would pick up 1,500 points, meaning Reed , McIlroy and fourth-placed Casey Jarvis could all mathematically replace Chacarra on top of the pile on Sunday, with 2,000 points then available to the winner in the season finale.

McIlroy , who is bidding to join Colin Montgomerie as a record eight-time winner of the Harry Vardon Trophy , is 9/2 favourite to take the honours at Yas Links and his chances have been boosted with the absence of several leading players, including Shane Lowry , Matt Fitzpatrick and Open champion Ryan Fox . Nevertheless, there are still plenty of world-class contenders in action aside from McIlroy .

6/1
● LIVE ODDS Tommy Fleetwood Tournament Outright

Fleetwood has local knowledge

Fleetwood looking to make most of local knowledge

Former Masters champions Adam Scott (10/1) and Reed (18/1) will both hope to be in contention, as will reigning PGA Championship and Abu Dhabi champion Aaron Rai (12/1). Tommy Fleetwood , meanwhile, is second-favourite @ 6/1 and it is the locally-based world number eight who is our tip for the title.

The Englishman , who moved to Dubai four years ago, recorded back-to-back Abu Dhabi titles in 2017 - when he also won the Race to Dubai -  and 2018. The 35-year-old also finished runner-up here in 2020 and last year, when he lost to countryman Rai in a play-off. Fleetwood’s current form is decent too, having recorded top-five finishes in his last two outings at the DP World India Championship and Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

Another European Ryder Cup star, former world number one Jon Rahm is 11/1 to take the honours this weekend, while his compatriot Chacarra can be backed at a tempting 12/1, although 10/3 for a top-five finish may be the sensible play. The big question about Chacarra is whether he can maintain his stunning form heading into the play-offs.

Chacarra had to settle for 22nd place at the Genesis Championship last time out but his previous three tournaments saw him record finishes of third, second and first. Chacarra was 39th on his Abu Dhabi debut last year but, at the conclusion of a season which has already seen him win three titles, he feels in a much better place now.

He said on www.europeantour.com : “I’m a completely different player to be honest. I’ve just improved pretty much every part of my game. I’m excited for the competition. I need to keep the good level (I've had), I’m going to have a lot of players coming at me so I’m going to need to have my A game to get it done."

10/3
● LIVE ODDS Eugenio Chacarra Top 5 Finish

Betting Tips

Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship Betting Tips

Tommy Fleetwood outright winner @ 6/1

Eugenio Chacarra to finish in top five @ 10/3

Simply click/tap on the above betting tips to add to your betslip.

Bet on Golf Odds at BOYLE Sports

*Prices are subject to fluctuation

Remember, Always Gamble Responsibly

BOYLE Sports Team · Betting Experts

Not all opinions are equal. The BOYLE Sports Team is made up of experts who know the sports and betting world inside out, delivering the kind of insights and analysis that give you a real edge where it matters most.

ROOTED IN HISTORY READY FOR THE FUTURE
ROOTED IN HISTORY READY FOR THE FUTURE