Germany v Portugal Prediction, Tips & Best Bet - Nations League

We have a Germany v Portugal prediction for you plus a breakdown of the betting odds, team news and matchups ahead of their Nations League semi-final.

Germany booked their place into this semi-final overcoming Italy after an initial 1-2 win they completed the job in the second leg with a 3-3 draw to win 5-4 on aggregate.

Portugal lost their initial semi-final first leg 1-0 but their comprehensive 5-2 win at home was more than enough to win the tie.

How To Watch Germany v Portugal

When is Germany v Portugal?

Germany v Portugal is on Wednesday at 8 pm

TV Channel

Prime Video

Where is Germany v Portugal Being Played?

Allianz Arena

Germany v Portugal Odds

Germany are priced at 4/5 to win this game.

*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

Portugal are priced at 14/5, and the draw in 90 minutes is seen as a 13/5 chance.

*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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Handicap Betting

Germany -1 @ 21/10

Portugal ₊ 1 @ 20/21

Handicap Draw _- 1 @ 13/5

Germany v Portugal Preview

Germany’s Form

Though Nagelsmann when appointed became their second youngest coach ever at 36 in September 2023. He came with considerable experience already managing since 2016 with a CV including Hoffenheim, Leipzig and Bayern. It seems like he’s been the right man for the role too overseeing only 3 defeats from his first 21 matches and only 1 in their last 15 matches in the last 12 months they’ve won against The Netherlands, Scotland and Italy among others.

There is a changing of the guard in this German squad following the retirements of iconic figures Neuer, Kross, Gundogan and Muller. However, they retain experience with their latest squad having Kimmich, Sane and Goretzka well north of 50 caps and Gnabry set to earn his 50th the next time he plays.  The new guard isn’t bad either with Wirtz, Pavlovic and Adeyemi among the latest emerging crop of top-class talent.

They’re likely to set themselves up for this game with either the 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1 which they used in their recent ties with Italy. With an average of 57.% across their Nations League Games they will likely look to dominate possession in this game with their pristine passing (a success rate of 88.8%). The one concern will be the lack of goals in their squad with only 4 players having 10+ international goals.

Germany's Last Five Results

Germany 3-3 Italy | March 23rd | Draw

Portugal 1-2 Germany | March 20th | Win

Hungary 1-1 Germany  | November 19th | Draw

Germany 7-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | November 16th | Win

Germany 1-0 Netherlands | October 14th | Win

3 Wins and 2 Draws

Portugal’s Form

Martinez has managed Portugal since he took the reins on the 9th of January 2023 and though he’s come under considerable criticism by some from his first 26 matches he’s helped guide them to 20 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. The highlight of his tenure so far was their Euro 2024 quarterfinal where they were eliminated against France on penalties. Of the last 12 months, highlights have been wins over Croatia, Scotland and Denmark.

Portugal (on paper at least) have one of the strongest squads in International Football with superstar names along with “stars of the future” present across almost every possible position. Ronaldo (40),  Silva (30) and Fernandes (30) are complimented in their latest squad by Neves (20), Silva (21) and Ramos (23).

However, Portugal have also been dominant in possession throughout their Nations League ties with 66.2% possession with a pass rate of 89.6%. I suspect for this game they will allow Germany to hold possession. Their biggest asset a certain Cristiano Ronaldo is also their biggest issue with them having to contend with his lack of pressing adding further load to the other 9 outfield players.

Portugal’s Last Five Results

Portugal 5-2 Denmark | March 23rd | Win

Denmark 1-0 Portugal | March 20th | Loss

Croatia 1-1 Portugal | November 18th | Draw

Portugal 5-1 Poland | November 15th | Win

Scotland 0-0 Portugal | October 15th | Draw

2 Wins, 2 Draws and 1 Loss

Germany v Portugal Predicted Lineups

Germany Predicted Starting XI (4-2-3-1)

GK: Ter Stegan

RB: Kimmich, CB: Tah,  CB: Anton, LB: Mittelstadt

CM: Goretzka, CM: Gross

RW: Gnabry, AM: Wirtz, LW: Sane

CF: Undav

Portugal Predicted Starting XI (4-2-3-1)

GK: Costa

RB: Dalot, CB: Dias, CB: Inácio,  LB: Mendes

CM: Vitinha, CM: Neves

RW: Bernardo, AM: Fernandes, LW: Jota

CF: Ronaldo

Germany v Portugal Head-To-Head Results & Stats

All-Time Head-To-Head Record

Germany wins: 11

Portugal wins: 3

Draws: 5

Head-To-Head Results

Portugal 2-4 Germany | Euro 2020 | June 19th, 2021

Germany 4-0 Portugal | World Cup | June 16th, 2014

Germany 1-0 Portugal | Euro 2012 | June 9th, 2012

Germany 3-2 Portugal | Friendly | June 19th, 2008

Germany 3-1 Portugal | Euro 2016 | July 8th, 2006

Key Players To Watch

Florian Wirtz - Germany

The Leverkusen Attacking Midfielder (22) has been a stablemate of the Germany International setup from U15 level inclusive to Senior Level and has 29 caps and 6 goals since debuting at the highest level in 2021. Wirtz is a magical midfielder with technical ability in abundance and a superb weight and range of pass it’s no surprise he looks set for a £100 million + move to Liverpool.

Last season he scored 16 goals and assisted 15 in 45 games in all competitions and if you fancy him for this game he is 11/2 to score first and 15/8 to score at any point in the game.

*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

Cristiano Ronaldo – Portugal

Despite receiving plenty of backlash about his “decline” and the way he’s had to change his game. CR7 remains one of the most effective goalscorers on the planet with 35 goals and 4 assists in 41 games for Al Nassr last season and 1 goal from 2 of his games for Portugal.

Whether Ronaldo ever reaches the illustrious 1000 pro goals looks difficult but a tally of 936 remains unmatched at this level and he is more than capable of adding to that tally against Germany. He can be gotten at 11/2 to score first and 7/4 to score anytime in the game.

*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

Germany v Portugal Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: Germany 2-1 Portugal

Germany isn’t yet the force it once was but look to be on the right trajectory and home advantage could be key for this game.

Though maybe reliant on Ronaldo, it’s a nice problem for Portugal to have and they have more than enough to win, provided Martinez gets his tactics and selection right

I’m expecting a competitive tie with goals, but Germany may just do enough.

Best Bet: BTTS + Germany Win – 5/2

*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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