We have a Germany v Portugal prediction for you plus a breakdown of the betting odds, team news and matchups ahead of their Nations League semi-final.
Germany booked their place into this semi-final overcoming Italy after an initial 1-2 win they completed the job in the second leg with a 3-3 draw to win 5-4 on aggregate.
Portugal lost their initial semi-final first leg 1-0 but their comprehensive 5-2 win at home was more than enough to win the tie.
How To Watch Germany v Portugal
When is Germany v Portugal?
Germany v Portugal is on Wednesday at 8 pm
TV Channel
Prime Video
Where is Germany v Portugal Being Played?
Allianz Arena
Germany v Portugal Odds
Team | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Germany | 4/5 | 55.6% |
Portugal | 14/5 | 26.3% |
Draw | 13/5 | 27.8% |
Germany are priced at 4/5 to win this game.
Germany to win - 4/5
*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Portugal are priced at 14/5, and the draw in 90 minutes is seen as a 13/5 chance.
Portugal to win - 14/5
*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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Handicap Betting
Germany -1 @ 21/10
Portugal + 1 @ 20/21
Handicap Draw - 1 @ 13/5
Bet on Nations League Odds at BoyleSports
Germany v Portugal Preview
Germany’s Form
Though Nagelsmann when appointed became their second youngest coach ever at 36 in September 2023. He came with considerable experience already managing since 2016 with a CV including Hoffenheim, Leipzig and Bayern. It seems like he’s been the right man for the role too overseeing only 3 defeats from his first 21 matches and only 1 in their last 15 matches in the last 12 months they’ve won against The Netherlands, Scotland and Italy among others.
There is a changing of the guard in this German squad following the retirements of iconic figures Neuer, Kross, Gundogan and Muller. However, they retain experience with their latest squad having Kimmich, Sane and Goretzka well north of 50 caps and Gnabry set to earn his 50th the next time he plays. The new guard isn’t bad either with Wirtz, Pavlovic and Adeyemi among the latest emerging crop of top-class talent.
They’re likely to set themselves up for this game with either the 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1 which they used in their recent ties with Italy. With an average of 57.% across their Nations League Games they will likely look to dominate possession in this game with their pristine passing (a success rate of 88.8%). The one concern will be the lack of goals in their squad with only 4 players having 10+ international goals.
Germany's Last Five Results
Germany 3-3 Italy | March 23rd | Draw
Portugal 1-2 Germany | March 20th | Win
Hungary 1-1 Germany | November 19th | Draw
Germany 7-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | November 16th | Win
Germany 1-0 Netherlands | October 14th | Win
3 Wins and 2 Draws
Portugal’s Form
Martinez has managed Portugal since he took the reins on the 9th of January 2023 and though he’s come under considerable criticism by some from his first 26 matches he’s helped guide them to 20 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. The highlight of his tenure so far was their Euro 2024 quarterfinal where they were eliminated against France on penalties. Of the last 12 months, highlights have been wins over Croatia, Scotland and Denmark.
Portugal (on paper at least) have one of the strongest squads in International Football with superstar names along with “stars of the future” present across almost every possible position. Ronaldo (40), Silva (30) and Fernandes (30) are complimented in their latest squad by Neves (20), Silva (21) and Ramos (23).
However, Portugal have also been dominant in possession throughout their Nations League ties with 66.2% possession with a pass rate of 89.6%. I suspect for this game they will allow Germany to hold possession. Their biggest asset a certain Cristiano Ronaldo is also their biggest issue with them having to contend with his lack of pressing adding further load to the other 9 outfield players.
Portugal’s Last Five Results
Portugal 5-2 Denmark | March 23rd | Win
Denmark 1-0 Portugal | March 20th | Loss
Croatia 1-1 Portugal | November 18th | Draw
Portugal 5-1 Poland | November 15th | Win
Scotland 0-0 Portugal | October 15th | Draw
2 Wins, 2 Draws and 1 Loss
Germany v Portugal Predicted Lineups
Germany Predicted Starting XI (4-2-3-1)
GK: Ter Stegan
RB: Kimmich, CB: Tah, CB: Anton, LB: Mittelstadt
CM: Goretzka, CM: Gross
RW: Gnabry, AM: Wirtz, LW: Sane
CF: Undav
Portugal Predicted Starting XI (4-2-3-1)
GK: Costa
RB: Dalot, CB: Dias, CB: Inácio, LB: Mendes
CM: Vitinha, CM: Neves
RW: Bernardo, AM: Fernandes, LW: Jota
CF: Ronaldo
Germany v Portugal Head-To-Head Results & Stats
All-Time Head-To-Head Record
Germany wins: 11
Portugal wins: 3
Draws: 5
Head-To-Head Results
Portugal 2-4 Germany | Euro 2020 | June 19th, 2021
Germany 4-0 Portugal | World Cup | June 16th, 2014
Germany 1-0 Portugal | Euro 2012 | June 9th, 2012
Germany 3-2 Portugal | Friendly | June 19th, 2008
Germany 3-1 Portugal | Euro 2016 | July 8th, 2006
Key Players To Watch
Florian Wirtz - Germany
The Leverkusen Attacking Midfielder (22) has been a stablemate of the Germany International setup from U15 level inclusive to Senior Level and has 29 caps and 6 goals since debuting at the highest level in 2021. Wirtz is a magical midfielder with technical ability in abundance and a superb weight and range of pass it’s no surprise he looks set for a £100 million + move to Liverpool.
Last season he scored 16 goals and assisted 15 in 45 games in all competitions and if you fancy him for this game he is 11/2 to score first and 15/8 to score at any point in the game.
Wirtz anytime goal - 15/8
*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Cristiano Ronaldo – Portugal
Despite receiving plenty of backlash about his “decline” and the way he’s had to change his game. CR7 remains one of the most effective goalscorers on the planet with 35 goals and 4 assists in 41 games for Al Nassr last season and 1 goal from 2 of his games for Portugal.
Whether Ronaldo ever reaches the illustrious 1000 pro goals looks difficult but a tally of 936 remains unmatched at this level and he is more than capable of adding to that tally against Germany. He can be gotten at 11/2 to score first and 7/4 to score anytime in the game.
Ronaldo first goal - 11/2
*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Germany v Portugal Prediction & Best Bet
Prediction: Germany 2-1 Portugal
Germany isn’t yet the force it once was but look to be on the right trajectory and home advantage could be key for this game.
Though maybe reliant on Ronaldo, it’s a nice problem for Portugal to have and they have more than enough to win, provided Martinez gets his tactics and selection right
I’m expecting a competitive tie with goals, but Germany may just do enough.
Best Bet: BTTS + Germany Win – 5/2
BTTS + Germany Win – 5/2
*Odds are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Bet on Nations League Odds at BoyleSports
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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