Will it be number 4 or number 40? That’s the question this Sunday as reigning champions Kerry bid to win the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship for the 40th time. Meanwhile, Mayo head east in quest of their 4th All-Ireland title.
2026 marks exactly 75 years since Mayo last lifted the Sam Maguire Cup, in 1951 of course, and this year’s final date carries extra symbolism: this year’s All-Ireland Football decider falls on Reek Sunday, the annual pilgrimage up Mayo's sacred Croagh Patrick. It will be the first time Mayo have ever played an All-Ireland final on that date.
The Kingdom, in stark contrast, make the trip to headquarters looking to make it back-to-back championships under Jack O'Connor.
In this Kerry v Mayo prediction, we cover everything you need to know ahead of the big clash, including how to watch the game, the latest odds, team news, form guides, head-to-head history, and our prediction and best bet for the game.
How To Watch
How To Watch Kerry v Mayo
Kerry v Mayo throws in at 3:30pm local time on Sunday, July 26th, 2026 at Croke Park, Dublin. RTÉ2 coverage begins at 2:15pm, hosted by Joanne Cantwell with Lee Keegan, Niall Morgan, Peter Canavan and Tomás Ó Sé on hand to analyse the day’s proceedings while commentary comes from Marty Morrissey and Éamonn Fitzmaurice.
BBC Two Northern Ireland coverage begins at 3:00pm BST, hosted by Sarah Mulkerrins who is joined by analysts Oisín McConville, Philly McMahon, Killian Young and Pádraig O'Hora. Commentary is by Thomas Niblock and Conor McManus.
Date | Sunday, July 26th, 2026 |
Throw-In Time | 3:30pm IST |
Venue | Croke Park, Dublin |
Referee | Martin McNally (Monaghan) |
TV Channel | RTÉ2 (from 2:15pm); BBC Two NI (from 3:00pm) |
Live Stream | RTÉ Player (Ireland); BBC iPlayer (Northern Ireland); GAAplus.ie (international, subscription required) |
Match Officials
Alongside referee Martin McNally, Sunday's official team is: Seán Hurson (Tyrone, standby official), Thomas Murphy (Galway, line umpire), Seán Lonergan (Tipperary, sideline official), Killian Jones (Kildare, Hawk-Eye), and Marty Duffy (Sligo, timekeeper).
Jersey Colours
Kerry won the coin toss and were designated the home team, so they'll wear their iconic green and gold. Due to a colour clash with Mayo's alternate kit, Mayo will instead wear a special all-white kit, an intentional nod to the white jerseys they wore during their last All-Ireland title win in 1951.
Where Is Kerry v Mayo Being Played?
The 2026 All-Ireland Football Final between Kerry and Mayo will be played at Croke Park, as is tradition.
Betting Odds
Kerry v Mayo Odds
Match Result (70 Mins)
Team | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Kerry | 2/5 | 71.4% |
Mayo | 11/4 | 26.7% |
Draw | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Favourites: Kerry are heavy favourites at 2/5.
Underdogs: Mayo are 11/4 outsiders, seeking a first Sam Maguire since 1951 against a side they've never beaten in an All-Ireland final.
The draw after 70 minutes is priced up at 8/1.
To Lift The Trophy
Team | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Kerry | 4/11 | 73.3% |
Mayo | 21/10 | 32.3% |
Handicap Betting
Selection | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Kerry -4 | 5/6 | 54.5% |
Mayo +4 | 6/5 | 45.5% |
Handicap Draw | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Total Points (Over/Under 48.5)
Selection | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Over 48.5 | 10/11 | 52.4% |
Under 48.5 | 4/5 | 55.6% |
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
Kerry v Mayo Preview
Team News
Team News
Kerry Team News
Kerry are unchanged from the semi-final win over Dublin, when Seán O'Shea came into the starting attack late as a replacement for the injured Paul Geaney. Geaney, who remains captain, is again named among the substitutes.
One number change is worth flagging: David Clifford has switched from his usual 13 to wear 14 for the final. With Geaney sidelined among the subs, Clifford will act as Kerry's on-field captain, and no All-Ireland-winning captain has ever worn the number 13. Kerry appear to have bought into the piseog.
There's a boost too, with All-Star goalkeeper Shane Ryan back involved among the substitutes, having missed the semi-final panel entirely.
Kerry Starting XV
- 1. Shane Murphy (GK)
- 2. Paul Murphy
- 3. Jason Foley
- 4. Dylan Casey
- 5. Graham O'Sullivan
- 6. Mike Breen
- 7. Gavin White
- 8. Mark O'Shea
- 9. Seán O'Brien
- 10. Joe O'Connor
- 11. Seán O'Shea
- 12. Diarmuid O'Connor
- 13. Paudie Clifford
- 14. David Clifford
- 15. Dylan Geaney
Kerry Substitutes
- 16. Shane Ryan (GK)
- 17. Evan Looney
- 18. Tomás Kennedy
- 19. Keith Evans
- 20. Paul Geaney (C)
- 21. Armin Heinrich
- 22. Brian Ó Beaglaoich
- 23. Tadhg Morley
- 24. Micheál Burns
- 25. Tom O'Sullivan
- 26. Killian Spillane
Mayo Team News
Andy Moran's named team has Jack Coyne captaining the side, with Conor Loftus listed to start at 11. Worth noting: Loftus was also named to start in both the quarter-final and semi-final, but on each occasion Paul Towey started instead, with Loftus introduced from the bench and scoring both times.
Don't be surprised if that pattern repeats. Moran may prefer to name Loftus but hold him for impact, wanting his experience available once the game is in the melting pot, with Towey given the nod at the start once again.
Kobe McDonald and Darragh Beirne both keep their places in the starting forward line, while Tommy Conroy has earned a reputation as Mayo's super-sub and looks likely to be introduced at half-time or early in the second half.
Aidan O'Shea, Matthew Ruane and Diarmuid O'Connor add further proven big-game experience among the substitutes, giving Mayo real options off the bench if the game is still in the balance late on.
Mayo Starting XV
- 1. Jack Livingstone (GK)
- 2. Jack Coyne (C)
- 3. Donnacha McHugh
- 4. Eoin McGreal
- 5. Sam Callinan
- 6. David McBrien
- 7. Enda Hession
- 8. Bob Tuohy
- 9. Jack Carney
- 10. Stephen Coen
- 11. Conor Loftus
- 12. Jordan Flynn
- 13. Darragh Beirne
- 14. Ryan O'Donoghue
- 15. Kobe McDonald
Mayo Substitutes
- 16. Rob Hennelly (GK)
- 17. Fenton Kelly
- 18. Paddy Durcan
- 19. Rory Brickenden
- 20. Conal Dawson
- 21. Aidan O'Shea
- 22. Matthew Ruane
- 23. Paul Towey
- 24. Diarmuid O'Connor
- 25. Tommy Conroy
- 26. Cian McHale
Paths To The 2026 All-Ireland Final
Kerry's Form
Kerry's Path to the 2026 All-Ireland Final
- All-Ireland Round 1: Kerry 0-16 – 2-20 Donegal
- All-Ireland Round 2B: Kerry 3-22 – 0-17 Kildare
- All-Ireland Round 3: Kerry 4-18 – 0-17 Armagh
- Quarter-Final: Kerry 2-25 – 0-27 Tyrone
- Semi-Final: Kerry 2-18 – 0-20 Dublin
Analysis
Kerry's summer started with a shock home defeat to Donegal, but they've barely put a foot wrong since. A huge scoring return against Kildare, a dominant win over Armagh, and back-to-back Croke Park wins over Tyrone and Dublin have them into the final in ominous form.
The Dublin semi-final showed exactly why Kerry are favourites: David Clifford netted a third-minute penalty rebound, and Seán O'Brien added a second goal in the 43rd minute off a Dylan Geaney delivery, with Paudie Clifford and Seán O'Shea controlling the second-half tempo to see the game out.
Mayo's Form
Mayo's Path to the 2026 All-Ireland Final
- Connacht Championship Quarter-Final: Mayo 0-31 – 1-15 London
- Connacht Championship Semi-Final: Mayo 1-18 – 2-25 Roscommon
- All-Ireland Round 1: Monaghan 2-20 – 1-24 Mayo
- All-Ireland Round 2A: Tyrone 0-22 – 1-18 Mayo
- All-Ireland Round 3: Mayo 0-22 – 2-13 Meath
- Quarter-Final: Mayo 0-23 – 0-18 Cork
- Semi-Final: Mayo 3-23 – 0-15 Louth
Analysis
Mayo were eliminated in Connacht by Roscommon in resounding fashion but have steadily built momentum through the All-Ireland series, and the semi-final performance was their best of the summer by some distance. Early goals from Ryan O'Donoghue and Darragh Beirne set the tone, and a 2-7 unanswered spell either side of half-time put the Wee County away.
Ryan O'Donoghue was outstanding with 1-11, Darragh Beirne added 1-2, Kobe McDonald chipped in 0-4, and substitute Conor Loftus added the cherry on top by scoring a second-half goal to underline Mayo's attacking depth. Under first-year boss Andy Moran, this Mayo side is playing with more freedom and firepower than at any point in the last decade.
Head-to-Head
Kerry v Mayo Head-To-Head
Sunday's game is the fifth meeting between these counties in an All-Ireland SFC Final, and the history is one-sided: Kerry have won all four previous finals.
- 1932 All-Ireland Final: Kerry 2-7 Mayo 2-4
- 1997 All-Ireland Final: Kerry 0-13 Mayo 1-07
- 2004 All-Ireland Final: Kerry 1-20 Mayo 2-09
- 2006 All-Ireland Final: Kerry 4-15 – 3-05 Mayo
That perfect Kerry record adds real weight to Mayo's 75-year wait. Not only have the Westerners not won the Sam Maguire since 1951, they've never beaten Kerry when it mattered most, on All-Ireland final day.
Breaking that duck alongside ending the famine itself would make Sunday one of the great stories in the history of Gaelic football.
Matchups
Key Matchups
David & Paudie Clifford v Donnacha McHugh & Enda Hession
Mayo’s defensive plan will likely revolve around containing the two Clifford brothers. McHugh is expected to shadow David Clifford, while Hession is a prime candidate to tag Paudie’s roaming playmaking role. Both will need big individual performances along with support from the overall Mayo defensive structure if Mayo are to frustrate this Kerry attack.
Ryan O'Donoghue & Kobe McDonald v Kerry's Full-Back Line
O'Donoghue, fresh off a 1-11 haul against Louth, while young McDonald offers real pace and movement that will test Kerry's defensive structure. If either gets loose early, it could unsettle a Kerry backline that hasn't faced this kind of running threat all summer.
Midfield: Jack Carney & Bob Tuohy v Seán O’Brien & Diarmuid O’Connor
The midfield duel is likely to define the rhythm of the game. Carney and Tuohy must contest Kerry’s aerial dominance and disrupt their kick‑out patterns. O’Brien’s physicality and Diarmuid O’Connor’s work‑rate give Kerry a slight edge in transition and breaking ball.
Goalkeepers: Shane Murphy v Jack Livingstone
Kick‑out accuracy and composure under pressure will be crucial. Murphy’s retention rate has been among the best in the country this season and has meant that long-time Kerry starting goalkeeper Shane Ryan has been relegated to the bench despite working his way back to fitness.
Mayo on the other hand, have struggled all season at retaining their own kickout. That said, Livingstone has been a bright spark for Andy Moran’s side, particularly with some fine shot-stopping displays this summer. However, the Breaffy man will need to have his best performance of the season off the tee if the Connacht men are to have a chance in this final.
Prediction
Kerry v Mayo Prediction
Prediction: Kerry 1-21 – 2-20 Mayo (Mayo win by 2 points)
Kerry go into this as deserved favourites: reigning champions, the most talented team in the country plus a perfect 4-0 record over Mayo in All-Ireland finals. While all this is true, they have not been overly convincing since reaching Croke Park this season. They struggled to put Tyrone away in the quarter-final where they were strongly fancied.
Likewise against Dublin in the semi-final, they were on the right side of 3 very controversial refereeing decisions and were flattered by the 4-point winning margin. Would they have gone on to beat Dublin if a couple of those big calls had went against them? Probably. However, both the Dubs and Tyrone have exposed chinks in the armour of this Kerry side.
Mayo's on the other hand have produced their best football of the season in Croke Park, admittedly against weaker opposition. This is an incredibly athletic and young Mayo side which seems to revel in the open expanses of GAA Headquarters.
The full-forward line trio of Darragh Beirne, Ryan O'Donoghue, and Kobe McDonald are giving opposing full-back lines nightmares with their athleticism, sharpshooting and eye for goal. When you add in two-point specialists such as Jordan Flynn from the half-forward line and Jack Carney from midfield this is a Mayo attack that can outscore any team in the country, including the Kingdom.
Best Bet
Best Bet: Mayo +4 on the handicap (6/5)
Backing Mayo to at least cover the four-point head start looks the way in from a betting perspective here, even with Kerry the deserved favourites.
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Dylan has forgotten more about the world of sports betting than many will ever know. Seven years in the game will give you that kind of perspective, and he brings that knowledge to the BOYLE Sports Blog. This long-suffering Mayo man has a particular passion for Gaelic football, American football and golf.
