Brazil ’s reward for finishing top of Group C is a testing last-32 encounter with a Japan side who are unbeaten in their last 10 matches.
These two met as recently as October in the Kirin Challenge Cup and it was Japan who came out on top to record their maiden victory over the five-time world champions . Brazil raced into a 2-0 half-time lead in Tokyo through goals from Paulo Henrique and Gabriel Martinelli but the hosts hit back after the break with goals from Takumi Minamino , Keito Nakamura and Ayase Ueda to snatch a 3-2 win .
"It was a blackout from everyone in our side in the second half," Brazil captain Casemiro said. "This is the highest level and if you fall to sleep in an entire half, it can cost you a World Cup , a Copa America, an Olympic medal.”
We expect the Brazil World Cup 2026 squad to have learned their lessons and are backing them to reach the last 16, although it is likely to be a very close encounter. Our Brazil vs Japan prediction is for Carlo Ancelotti’s men to qualify @1/3 , and think it could well end up being after a penalty shoot-out @10/1 .
Betting Odds
Brazil vs Japan Betting Odds – 2026 World Cup
Result | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
Brazil | 7/10 | 58.8% |
Japan | 15/4 | 21.1% |
Draw | 13/5 | 27.8% |
*Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.
Brazil are 7/10 favourites to beat Japan , who are 15/4 for the win, with the draw at 13/5.
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Form Guides
Brazil form guide
The Brazil World Cup campaign has largely gone as expected so far as they look to build up a head of steam under Ancelotti following a distinctly average qualifying campaign.
They weathered an early storm to salvage a 1-1 draw against Africa Cup of Nations winners Morocco in their opening Group C game before sweeping aside both Haiti and Scotland 3-0 to finish ahead of the Moroccans on goal difference.
All seven of Brazil’s goals so far have come from either Vinicius Junior (four) or Matheus Cunha (three) and we expect them to again be the biggest scoring threat to Japan . And for our first World Cup tips today we’re backing the ever-dangerous Vinicius to add to his tally @7/5 , while Manchester United forward Cunha is 2/1 to net in a game which has the promise of goals.
In 15 games under Ancelotti , Brazil have only failed to score on two occasions - both coming near the start of his tenure - while Japan have only drawn a blank once in their last 16 fixtures. Therefore, we’re not expecting a dull encounter in Houston and for our second World Cup tips today we’re going for both teams to score @20/21 .
Japan form guide
The Blue Samurai may feel a little hard done by to be facing Brazil in the first knockout round having not lost a game yet. A 2-2 draw with the Netherlands was followed by a 4-0 win over Tunisia and a 1-1 draw with Sweden as they finished runners-up in Group F, two points behind the Dutch . Japan have now only lost twice since March 2024 while Hajime Moriyasu’s side have also claimed some notable scalps in recent years.
At the 2022 World Cup they defeated Spain and Germany before losing to Croatia on penalties in the last 16, and since then have recorded friendly wins over the Germans and Brazilians as well as England . So far at the 2026 finals, Japan’s games have tended to come alive in the second half with eight of the 10 goals scored in their three fixtures arriving after the break.
That is in stark contrast to fast-starting Brazil, whose three games have seen seven out of the eight goals scored in the first half. Therefore, the third of our World Cup tips today is for Brazil to be winning at half-time and for the match to be level at full-time @16/1 .
Betting Tips
Brazil vs Japan Betting Tips
Vinicius Junior to score at anytime @ 7/5
Brazil half-time/Draw full-time @ 16/1
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