France are chasing a third successive final appearance but first they must negotiate arguably the toughest group in the tournament as we look at our 2026 World Cup Group I predictions.
Senegal , Norway and Iraq join Les Bleus in the opening phase and this is how we rate the World Cup Group I teams in reverse order, followed by our best bet:
Group I Odds
2026 World Cup Group I Odds
Result | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
France | 2/5 | 71.4% |
Norway | 11/4 | 26.7% |
Senegal | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Iraq | 40/1 | 2.4% |
*Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.
France should have little trouble topping the World Cup Group I table but we feel Senegal (8/1) are the most likely to challenge them.
Group I Preview
2026 World Cup Group I Preview
Iraq
4. Iraq @ 40/1
Iraq look to have the hardest task of any nation to reach the knockout stages in what will be only their second World Cup after 1986.
France , Senegal and Norway ranked first, 14th and 31st in the world respectively - will be expected to challenge for the top two spots in the World Cup Group I table but Graham Arnold ’s side won’t be about to roll over having got this far.
The Lions of Mesopotamia had to navigate their way through 20 matches and five rounds of AFC qualifying before defeating Bolivia 2-1 in the inter-confederation play-off final to reach the finals.
Norway
3. Norway @ 11/4
Norway are heading back to the World Cup for the first time in 1998 thanks to a blistering qualifying campaign in which Erling Haaland went goal crazy. They won all eight matches in Group I , outscoring their opponents by a combined 37-5, and finished six points clear of nearest challengers Italy .
Haaland scored 16 of those goals, including five in an 11-1 rout of Moldova , and the Manchester City superstar is likely to pose a huge threat at the World Cup. Coach Stale Solbakken has plenty of other attacking firepower too, including Arsenal’s Martin Odegaard , Atletico Madrid’s Alexander Sorloth and Jorgen Strand Larsen of Crystal Palace, as Norway look to break new ground.
The Scandinavians have only reached the last 16 of the World Cup twice in their history in 1938 and 1998 and not got any further, but they will be determined to rewrite the record books in the coming months.
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Senegal
2. Senegal @ 8/1
France and Norway may be favourites to reach the last 32 but Senegal are more than capable of giving the European duo a run for their money. Boasting a wealth of talent and experience, including Sadio Mane , Kalidou Koulibaly , Nicolas Jackson , Idrissa Gueye , Iliman Ndiaye and Ismaila Sarr , Senegal cruised through qualifying unbeaten while conceding just three goals in their 10 games.
That saw the Lions of Teranga secure a third successive World Cup spot and they followed it up by reaching the final of the Africa Cup of Nations in January - a match which proved to be one of the most controversial in the tournament’s history. Senegal believed they had won the final 1-0 after extra-time but were later stripped of the title due to having walked off in protest at host nation Morocco being awarded a penalty in second-half stoppage time.
Morocco were duly awarded a 3-0 win and named champions but Senegal have challenged the ruling at the Court of Arbitration of Sport. Whatever happens with the appeal, Senegal have shown enough over the last few years including beating Thomas Tuchel’s England in a Wembley friendly to concern any side who faces them this summer.
France
1. France @ 2/5
Star-studded France have the players, experience and motivation to go all the way and it would be a huge surprise if they do not make at least the semi-finals. The 2018 world champions were beaten by Argentina in a thrilling 2022 final and, having also been winners in 1998 and runners-up 2006, they have proven pedigree on the game’s biggest stage.
They can also lay claim to having the best group of players on the planet, World Cup veterans like Kylian Mbappe , Ousmane Dembele and Jules Kounde being joined by the rising talents of Michael Olise , Desire Doue and Rayan Cherki in the France World Cup 2026 squad .
Les Bleus will also be hoping to send long-serving coach and 1998 captain Didier Deschamps out on a high as a three-time World Cup winner. France had few problems in qualifying, only dropping points in a 2-2 draw in Iceland , and they reclaimed top spot in the world rankings from Spain in April on the back of nine-match unbeaten run, with Germany and Brazil among their eight wins.
However, they have been drawn in a group laced with danger, so will need to hit the ground running.
Group I Best Bet
2026 World Cup Group I Best Bet
France/Senegal straight forecast @ 11/4
The experience and youthful exuberance of France should be enough to top the pool while Senegal 's quality of depth can see them edge out Haaland and Co.
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*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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