It is time to examine one of this summer’s most open pools with our 2026 World Cup Group D predictions.
The USA have the benefit of home advantage, playing two games in Los Angeles and one in Seattle, but will that be enough to help them edge out some tricky competitors?
Here, we rank all of the 2026 World Cup Group D teams in reverse order, followed by our best bet on this interesting section:
Group D odds
2026 World Cup Group D Odds
Result | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
USA | 11/8 | 42.1% |
Turkey | 7/4 | 36.4% |
Paraguay | 4/1 | 20% |
Australia | 7/1 | 12.5% |
*Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.
USA (11/8) are slight favourites to win the group ahead of Turkey (7/4), with Paraguay (4/1) will fancy their chances of taking a top-two finish.
Group D preview
2026 World Cup Group D Preview
Australia
4. Australia @ 7/1
The perennially underestimated Socceroos are through to their sixth straight finals tournament after finishing a solid second to Japan in their Asian Football Confederation group.
Australia reached the last 16 for the second time in Qatar four years ago, when beating Tunisia and Denmark to finish as pool runners-up behind France , before only going down 2-1 against Argentina .
Former tough-as-teak defender Tony Popovic is the current head coach and his side can be relied upon to show the same spirit and enthusiasm as he once displayed on the pitch for Crystal Palace.
Paraguay
3. Paraguay @ 4/1
When La Albirroja made it as far as the quarter-finals at South Africa 2010, you would have got decent odds on them missing the next three World Cup tournaments, but they are now back where they belong.
Argentine coach Gustavo Alfaro was brought in after a slow start to qualifying and Paraguay subsequently suffered just one defeat in 12 games, an excellent run highlighted by home wins over Brazil , Argentina , Chile and Uruguay .
Alfaro has a settled squad boasting a nice blend of youth and experience and famously declared after his appointment: “I’d like Paraguay to be the team that nobody wants to face.”
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USA
2. USA @ 11/8
The Stars and Stripes have established a strong pedigree of World Cup success, appearing in eight of the last nine tournaments and advancing past the group stage on five occasions.
In 2022, they drew with Wales and England before edging out Iran to progress (what a showdown that would have been this time), before losing 3-1 to the Netherlands .
Former Tottenham , PSG and Chelsea manager Mauricio Pochettino , who led a weakened team to the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup final, has the athletic-type players in his USA World Cup 2026 squad to adopt his high-pressing tactics and America did beat Australia and Paraguay in friendlies late on last year.
Turkey
1. Turkey @ 7/4
In a group where three of the teams are best known for being dogged and determined, we reckon Turkey just bring a touch of extra class to the party.
There is a slight doubt about their temperament due to a 6-0 home loss to Spain in qualifying, but the Crescent Stars scored lots of goals in four wins over Georgia and Bulgaria before redeeming themselves with a 2-2 draw away to La Roja in Seville . Vincenzo Montella’s side showed they can dig deep and be more pragmatic when it matters in 1-0 play-off wins over Romania and Kosovo to end a 24-year wait for World Cup finals action since finishing third in 2002.
A strong showing at Euro 2024 and earning promotion to the top level in the latest Nations League competition augurs well for a team which has experienced campaigners like Inter Milan midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu and outstanding young stars in Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz of Juventus .
Group D Best Bet
2026 World Cup Group D Best Bet
Turkey/USA straight forecast @ 4/1
In a tight section, the Crescent Stars are tipped to just have the edge in individual quality, with co-hosts USA coming a close second in the World Cup Group D table .
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*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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