Harry Kane is the 2/1 outright favourite in BOYLE Sports' Ballon d'Or market to become the first Englishman to win the award since 2001 later this year.
The Kane Case
Can Harry Kane End 25-Year Wait For English Ballon d’Or?
Kane famously had to wait until the age of 31 to win the first major honour of his career, helping Bayern Munich claim the 2024/25 Bundesliga title, but the silverware and awards are starting to roll in for the England captain now.
Bayern retained their Bundesliga crown at the weekend to move a step closer to the treble, having progressed through to the semi-finals of the Champions League and DFB Pokal, and Kane has been instrumental in that success.
His goal in Saturday's 4-2 title-winning win over Stuttgart took his tally to 56 for club and country this season, while his overall record for Bayern now reads 136 goals and 30 assists in just 139 appearances.
Kane's 51 goals for Bayern already make this the best scoring season of his senior career and the former Spurs striker has also helped break a number of other milestones, including the German giants setting a new Bundesliga record for most goals scored in a single campaign.
Former England international Joe Cole believes if Kane can go on to conquer Europe with Bayern , or the world with England , the Ballon d'Or will be his.
Cole said on TNT Sports: "Absolutely. 50 goals!
"If he wins the Champions League, the Bundesliga, and let's say he wins the World Cup, as well, then he's nailed on.
"Two-three years ago, he went out there [to Munich], and people said, 'he's won nothing'. He didn't win anything in his first year.
"But you can't do anything but love Harry Kane . He's just a genius of a footballer."
If Kane does win the Ballon d'Or, he will join an exclusive list that only includes four Englishmen.
Michael Owen was the most recent of those, claiming the award 25 years ago, with Stanley Matthews (1956), Bobby Charlton (1966), Kevin Keegan (1978 and 1979) also topping the polls.
Olise Next French Ballon d'Or?
France stars feature heavily again In Ballon d’Or Betting
Kane's Bayern team-mate Michael Olise is second favourite @ 7/2 and could become the third Frenchman to win the prestigious honour in five years, following in the footsteps of Karim Benzema in 2022 and Ousmane Dembele last year.
The 24-year-old winger has flourished since joining Bayern from Crystal Palace in 2024 and helped form arguably the deadliest attacking trio on the planet alongside Kane and Luis Diaz , who have struck almost 100 goals between them this season.
Two other Frenchman are also in the running, with Kylian Mbappe @ 5/1 and Dembele @ 12/1 , and a World Cup triumph for Les Bleus this summer — France have reached the last two finals — could edge any of the Gallic trio ahead of Kane in the running.
Spain and Barcelona superstar Lamine Yamal ( 4/1 ), runner-up to PSG forward Dembele last year, and England and Arsenal midfielder Declan Rice ( 5/1 ) are also among the leading candidates.
Ballon d'Or Odds
2026 Ballon d'Or Odds
Contender | Odds | Implied % |
|---|---|---|
Harry Kane | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Michael Olise | 7/2 | 22.2% |
Lamine Yamal | 4/1 | 20.0% |
Kylian Mbappe | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Declan Rice | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Ousmane Dembele | 12/1 | 7.7% |
History
Ballon d’Or History
The Ballon d'Or is organised by French magazine France Football and has been awarded annually since 1956, making the 2026 edition the 70th in the award's history.
Since 2022 the voting period has been season-based, running from July 1 to June 30, rather than the previous calendar year format. One hundred journalists from the top 100 FIFA-ranked nations each select five players in order of preference, with points awarded on a 6-4-3-2-1 scale. The player with the highest aggregate total is crowned winner, with first-place votes used as a tiebreaker if required.
The ceremony is held annually at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris.
In the past 25 years the award has been dominated by Lionel Messi (eight wins) and Cristiano Ronaldo (five wins), alongside individual winners including Ronaldo , Rivaldo , Ronaldinho , Kaká , Luka Modric , Karim Benzema , Rodri and, most recently, Ousmane Dembele.
Ballon d'Or Favourites
Ballon d'Or Betting Preview
The market is shaped by one central question: what happens at the World Cup. Kane at 2/1 leads on the basis of 56 goals, a Bundesliga title and a potential Champions League run still ahead. If Bayern complete the treble and England go deep at the World Cup, the case for any other candidate becomes hard to make.
Olise at 7/2 is the most credible challenger, though voters historically favour one standout performer per club and Kane's goal record makes him the clear first choice from Bayern .
Yamal at 4/1 could leap the field entirely with a World Cup win for Spain , while Mbappe and Rice at 5/1 both need significant international success to advance their claims. Dembele at 12/1 would need a strong finish to defend his crown.
2026 Ballon d’Or Favourites
Kane
Harry Kane to Win the Ballon d'Or @ 2/1
Kane arrives at this summer's decisive stretch having already produced the most prolific campaign of his career.
Fifty-six goals, a Bundesliga title and Bayern still alive in two more competitions.
If Kompany's side complete the treble and Kane leads England to World Cup glory, the argument for any other candidate is very difficult to make.
Olise
Michael Olise to Win the Ballon d'Or @ 7/2
Olise has been one of the revelations of European football since his move from Crystal Palace to Bayern in 2024. Part of a front three that has combined for nearly 100 goals, his case rests on collective success rather than individual statistics, but in a season where Bayern could win three trophies, that may be enough.
Yamal
Lamine Yamal to Win the Ballon d'Or @ 4/1
Still only 18, Yamal finished runner-up to Dembele last year and arrives in 2026 with another full season of top-level performance behind him. A World Cup win with Spain would transform his candidacy entirely, and at 4/1 the market is already pricing in a genuine chance of that outcome.
Barcelona look almost certain to win LaLiga which bodes well for Yamal’s candidacy but their elimination from the Champions League at the hands of Atlético Madrid alongside the teenager’s injury which will see him miss the last month of the club season with Barca are working against him in this season’s race for the award.
Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe to Win the Ballon d'Or @ 5/1
Mbappe has been the nearly man of recent Ballon d'Or cycles without ever claiming the award. At 5/1 , his price reflects a candidacy that requires World Cup success with France and a strong Champions League run.
The lack of club silverware, especially with a club like Real Madrid, makes Mbappe’s route to a first Ballon d’Or very difficult. To have any chance he will almost certainly have to lead France to World Cup glory, and even that may not be enough.
Declan Rice
Declan Rice to Win the Ballon d'Or @ 5/1
The longest of shots among the frontrunners. Rice's influence on Arsenal's Champions League campaign has been significant and a deep run to the final would boost his credentials.
A World Cup win alongside Kane would make for an extraordinary summer, though Kane's goal record makes it hard to see voters separating the two in anyone's favour but the England captain.
Dembele
Ousmane Dembele to Win the Ballon d'Or @ 12/1
The defending champion faces the difficult task of repeating in a year where the competition has strengthened. PSG remain alive in the Champions League and a second successive European triumph would make a compelling case. At 12/1 , the market has him as an outsider, but the reigning champion should never be written off entirely.
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